Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

I've got a sneaky suspicion we are going to see some "system left behind in the Gulf " runs from the GFS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Been watching this thread for days, finally going to chime in. About 80% sure of something developing from a td to hurricane. About 97% sure that a trough as strong as the gfs depicts will not happen. We have been entrenched in high pressure for weeks. Our pattern is more of mid july. Hell the high today and yesterday was in the mid 90's. Can not remember the last time we got substantial rainfall around here. All lawns are starting to brown and crisping up. Was playing golf yesterday and the heat was the main discussion, not even football Sure the pattern can and will eventually change but not in one massive front. Think anyone from Brownsville to Tampa have just as much chance of getting whatever becomes of this.

[ROCK]

I've got a sneaky suspicion we are going to see some "system left behind in the Gulf " runs from the GFS.

no doubt....ensembles kinda give it away..(maybe).... so we get a break until the 0z GFS, NOGAPS then CMC.....

[gatorcane]

Well I think development in the western Caribbean seems more likely than it did earlier this week. Looking at the gfs, we see development begins now under 180 hours, around 168 hours or so. Also other models are showing development.

[cycloneye]

Wow,the 00z package of models start with the NAM very bullish with PGI46L.

[ROCK]

[quote="cycloneye"]Wow,the 00z package of models start with the NAM very bullish with PGI46L.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l.gifquote]


is that 46L or whats in front of it? underneath Igor...

[gatorcane]

Yeah cycloneye quite impressive from the nam. Though that model is not good with the tropics, the message we take is that a stronger than normal tropical wave is going to be traversing the Caribbean later this week and development seems likely once it reaches the western Caribbean or even sooner by this time next week.

[cycloneye]

Wow,the 00z package of models start with the NAM very bullish with PGI46L.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l.gifquote]


is that 46L or whats in front of it? underneath Igor...

Definltlly is PGI46L because of the timeframe. Is now around 53W.

[cycloneye]

ROCK, to be exact,is as I type this at 12.2N-53.6W. Makes sense that this is what NAM develops.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/predict_page ... atest.html

[Wx_Warrior]

From the man JB:

Watch the southwest Caribbean later this week. Wave near 50 will be getting in there and light the fire for threat to the US in 10-15 days.

[JTD]

0z GFS starting to roll in. Shall be interesting as always.

[Ptarmigan]

Wow,the 00z package of models start with the NAM very bullish with PGI46L.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

I wonder how strong it would be. The storm does not look really large. If named it would be either Matthew, Nicole or Otto.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 54 hours shows low pressure with PGI46L, south of Puerto Rico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 90 hours has PGI46L arriving to SW Caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[HURAKAN]

Sep 24

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 114 hours. Low pressure still at SW Caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 132 hours. At Western Caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[cycloneye]

00z GFs at 156 hours.Things are starting to jell in Western Caribbean as there is broad low pressure.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[cycloneye]

Bingo at 168 hours,Development starts.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

At 174 deepens more

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

here you go gfs...240