
Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
I can't believe we are still a week away from this even consolidating.... It feels like we have been looking at this thing for a month. I am going to need another month off just to sleep after this.... 

0 likes
The ECM looks alot like hurricane Irene but a touch to the east, a northward/NNE motion....
Way too early to call thats for sure!
Way too early to call thats for sure!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re:
KWT wrote:The ECM looks alot like hurricane Irene but a touch to the east, a northward/NNE motion....
Way too early to call thats for sure!
well I guess everyone is talking in here about the two systems that come together in the central and western carrib. anyway
12z EURO no longer turns it west and now NE motion like the nogaps and the old GFS run.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:43 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
SFLcane wrote:Nogaps 12z
That is an interesting run from the NOGAPS. Shows a very deep trough over the Eastern CONUS with a strong nor'easter off the DELMARVA and a very strong tropical cyclone heading N/N-NE out of the NW Caribbean Sea.
We will continue to see some very interesting model runs during these next several days.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1794
- Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
- Location: Toms River, NJ
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
Could this system should up the coast or would it just go out to sea after passing Florida and the Bahamas. A deep slow moving trough and a strong high to the east could funnel the system northward, however, if a high pressure rebuilds to the north, like the gfs showed, then the system would only get so far north and then possibly look back to the southwest under the building high.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 236
- Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:27 pm
- Location: St Lucia
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Approaching the Windward Islands
Vortex wrote:46 has a very deep and moisture ladden southerly flow noted on the vis this afternoon...46 continues westward and it looks like the weather gets very active tonight/tuesday across barbados/windwards...Fairly low pressures across the region as well but likely nothing organizing until its gets further west. Still, I think the Windwards will deal with gusts to 35-40mph with localized flooding....Awaiting latter guidance to see how 46 plays into a developing cyclone across the western carribean late week/weekend...
Well St Lucia and no doubt St Vincent and Martinique at the least are getting the rain from this - burst of torrential rain for an hour and then continuous drizzle but very little wind. Looking at the sat images, more rain and no doubt some localised flooding to come but hopefully the wind gusts will not materialise. If I want to remember how lucky we are here, I just check the photos from Bermuda...
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7182
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re:
djmikey wrote:Question:
I'm hearing a lot about this system heading towards Florida because of the soon expected trough. Does that mean that TX/LA are in the clear? Models seems consistent with a N/NE motion once or if it get to the GOM. Just curious.
no
0 likes
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11161
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
12z Euro Ensembles disagree with the operational run.




0 likes
Michael
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
I have my doubts that we will get a deep digging trough to turn this thing east of the U.S. This is late September, not mid-October, and the ridge over the southeast has been very persistent this summer. I do think the storm will eventually have an eastward vector in its motion, but I see a path through Cuba east of Florida as unlikely.
0 likes
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11161
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
Updated...ensembles do agree with the operational 

0 likes
Michael
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
Ivanhater wrote:Updated...ensembles do agree with the operational
Aren't the ensembles a good deal to the west of the operational? Or do you mean agree in the sense that they both form a significant cyclone over the NW Caribbean?
Edit: OK, I see it. The new Ensembles are still west of the operational, but not by as much. 12Z ensemble mean shows what looks like a path across the tip of Cuba toward SE Florida.
Last edited by BigA on Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1794
- Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
- Location: Toms River, NJ
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
BigA wrote:I have my doubts that we will get a deep digging trough to turn this thing east of the U.S. This is late September, not mid-October, and the ridge over the southeast has been very persistent this summer. I do think the storm will eventually have an eastward vector in its motion, but I see a path through Cuba east of Florida as unlikely.
From the position that this thing will form, I definitely think it would be very difficult for the system to just bypass parts of the U.S., particularly Florida, perhaps if it developed further east into the eastern Caribbean, then it would be plausible but the system develops far west enough where it would really have to go due north with an easterly component to fully miss us and I think that's unlikely although considering how lucky the U.S. has been, it just might miss us once again. I believe that Florida and perhaps the rest of the SE coast may be under the gun.
0 likes
Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands
Convoluted upper air pattern according to HPC. Low confidence on the east coast trough - probably why we're seeing large swings in the guidance (i.e. GFS 12z vs 00z) and Euro (00z vs 12z).
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010
VALID 12Z THU SEP 23 2010 - 12Z MON SEP 27 2010
CLOSED LOWS LIE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ALASKA TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF 140W... RESPECTIVELY. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING RIDGING
IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WARM/ WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US BY THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED IN THE STRENGTH
OF SAID TROUGHING FROM A CLOSED LOW SEPARATING FROM THE FLOW AND
DROPPING TO NEW MEXICO /ECMWF RUNS FROM 19 SEPT/ TO A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC /GFS/. THESE DIFFERENCES OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF WHAT IS NOW WESTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W...WHICH BOTH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z
ECMWF KEEP AS A STRONG SYSTEM WHILE THE 06Z GFS WAS QUITE WEAK
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO LIE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS TO PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCES OVER THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UPSTREAM AND
DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF POOR
CONTINUITY...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010
VALID 12Z THU SEP 23 2010 - 12Z MON SEP 27 2010
CLOSED LOWS LIE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ALASKA TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF 140W... RESPECTIVELY. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING RIDGING
IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WARM/ WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US BY THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED IN THE STRENGTH
OF SAID TROUGHING FROM A CLOSED LOW SEPARATING FROM THE FLOW AND
DROPPING TO NEW MEXICO /ECMWF RUNS FROM 19 SEPT/ TO A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC /GFS/. THESE DIFFERENCES OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF WHAT IS NOW WESTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W...WHICH BOTH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z
ECMWF KEEP AS A STRONG SYSTEM WHILE THE 06Z GFS WAS QUITE WEAK
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO LIE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS TO PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCES OVER THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UPSTREAM AND
DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF POOR
CONTINUITY...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 29 guests