ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[plasticup]

I'm still more concerned about Honduras and Belize, even if a couple of models have drifted north.

Look people the moral of the models is that the quiet period of no significant landfalls for the US is about to be over. So for all the Floridians who thought the season was over turn and not wait till there is a Wilma or Charley a few hours away.

I've seen statistical output from the models but never moral output.

This cracked me up

[Florida1118]

looking worse and worse thankfully... storms down in that area scare the crap out of me as I never want to wishcast another storm after Wilma rocked me

And what makes you think it is looking worse. The convection is fine. The TWO says it is getting better organized. Nothing is pointing to it looking worse.

[Ptarmigan]

Regardless of what the computer models says as they tend to change, Central America and Gulf Coast should keep an eye on 95L.

[Battlebrick]

looking worse and worse thankfully... storms down in that area scare the crap out of me as I never want to wishcast another storm after Wilma rocked me

I don't know what you're looking at, its looking really good at the moment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[tshizzle]

looking worse and worse thankfully... storms down in that area scare the crap out of me as I never want to wishcast another storm after Wilma rocked me

I don't know what you're looking at, its looking really good at the moment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

idk, im no expert, thats why im always reading here

just seems like its moving so fast itll be hard pressed to turn into a TS before it ends up smack dap in CA somewhere (hoping)

[Florida1118]

looking worse and worse thankfully... storms down in that area scare the crap out of me as I never want to wishcast another storm after Wilma rocked me

I don't know what you're looking at, its looking really good at the moment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

idk, im no expert, thats why im always reading here

just seems like its moving so fast itll be hard pressed to turn into a TS before it ends up smack dap in CA somewhere (hoping)

Its got a few days. Thats plenty of time to develop.

[ronjon]

Starting to see some rotation down near 13N-71W. Not much convection at the moment but all it'll need is a burst at dmax to get it going.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[LaBreeze]

Regardless of what the computer models says as they tend to change, Central America and Gulf Coast should keep an eye on 95L.

Shouldn't it be more the eastern Gulf Coast since the western Gulf Coast should be protected by the front due to come in and the High pressure building in?

[cycloneye]

ronjon,almost there.

00z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010092300, , BEST, 0, 128N, 716W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Winds up to 30kts and pressure down 1 mb.

[cycloneye]

Not moving very fast now,from 20kts at 18z to 13kts at 00z.

LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 71.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

[ConvergenceZone]

ronjon,almost there.

00z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010092300, , BEST, 0, 128N, 716W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Winds up to 30kts and pressure down 1 mb.

Any estimates anyone if you were to guess what day this may become a depression? Friday? Saturday? Sunday?

[Florida1118]

ronjon,almost there.

00z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010092300, , BEST, 0, 128N, 716W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Winds up to 30kts and pressure down 1 mb.

Any estimates anyone if you were to guess what day this may become a depression? Friday? Saturday? Sunday?

Friday at 11am, or at 8am as a Special Adv.

[blp]

Not moving very fast now,from 20kts at 18z to 13kts at 00z.

LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 71.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

Right on cue... Almost like it heard us talking about it moving to fast...

[SouthFloridawx]

You guys sure this isn't going to the Pacific?

[blp]

Once this gets past SA it should have the inflow it needs to start wrapping up. You can see the southern inflow channel starting to develop now. It will interesting to see what happens in the morning with the first visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[Florida1118]

You guys sure this isn't going to the Pacific?

Well of course we arent sure...but it doesnt seem likely to me.

[SouthFloridawx]

You guys sure this isn't going to the Pacific?

Well of course we arent sure...but it doesnt seem likely to me.

I guess it looks like there isn't much steering after it moves a couple hundred miles west.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time=

[gatorcane]

Okay so here is some climatology. As you can see I chose to pick a point where the GFS indicates this system will develop. I compared September and October for all storms/hurricanes passing with 65NM of that point.

September tracks:


October tracks:

[ConvergenceZone]

Maybe some of the folks that are more experts can answer this...What feature suppose to pull up this invest? Because if you look at the due west movement, you would swear it would go right into CA, and emerge right into the pacific ocean...Wouln't it have to turn northwest soon to even make it close to the Yucatan? I know I've heard the mention of a trough digging down, but the trough isn't going to dig way down ito the carib and change the direction of this thing is it? What's going to change the direction?

[TwisterFanatic]

You guys sure this isn't going to the Pacific?

Well of course we arent sure...but it doesnt seem likely to me.

I guess it looks like there isn't much steering after it moves a couple hundred miles west.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time=

There is supposed to be a huge trough turn it off to the north.