ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The latest at 16:45z.

[candycane86]

Nah CZ it just sort of stays inland as a large gyre set-ups and develops a new focus of attention over to the east...its somewhat like what you see more often in May/June with energy circulating from the EPAC into the Caribbean.

Either way the models have a system hitting Florida and the energy from this region is almost certainly going to be embedded in there somewhere but it doesn't appear to be the main feature anymore at least on the 12z GFS.

This my first post and forgive me for my lack of knowledge. If there were to be a system to hit Florida, how far out are we looking at?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm glad the weekend is fast approaching. I know I'll be staying up late watching every twist and turn of this one. Hopefully a clearer picture will be had before monday so I won't be so tired at work all week!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think we are looking at next Thursday through Saturday for a FL landfall, depending whether a southern or northern coast impact verifies. IF it is going to impact Florida that is.
There have been some models predicting a stall in the Bay of Honduras though ove rhte last few days, so that could delay impact if it misses the trough connection.

[poof121]

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NOTIFY=ATRP
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[Weatherboy1]

So I guess that means this is essentially a done deal, eh? Do they go straight to TS or TD? Hmmm. I for one am VERRRYYYY interested to see what comes out of this. First real FL threat of something (95? a new system born out of its remnats?) this season so paying attention.

[Comanche]

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Ok, in laymans term's, before I call in Triumph the Comdey Dog on you!

[poof121]

Just a TD so far:

AL, 15, 2010092312, , BEST, 0, 136N, 748W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Comanche]

Just a TD so far:

AL, 15, 2010092312, , BEST, 0, 136N, 748W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

TY

[Evil Jeremy]

I doubt they would do the renumber 3 and a half hours before the next advisory time without issuing a special one.

[KWT]

Well at least we know its going to get upgraded, certainly wouldn't surprise me if the NHC went right upto TS status though equally they may well just hold back and put it at 30kts...

The future set-up looks really complicated, esp if another system forms from within the same large gyre once this is inland...providing it gets inland, not totally certain yet!

[HURAKAN]

That intensity is from 12z, look that it says DB, not TD or TS

[cycloneye]

That intensity is from 12z, look that it says DB, not TD or TS

The new Best Track with TD or TS should be out shortly.

[Cyclone1]

Nah CZ it just sort of stays inland as a large gyre set-ups and develops a new focus of attention over to the east...its somewhat like what you see more often in May/June with energy circulating from the EPAC into the Caribbean.

Either way the models have a system hitting Florida and the energy from this region is almost certainly going to be embedded in there somewhere but it doesn't appear to be the main feature anymore at least on the 12z GFS.

This my first post and forgive me for my lack of knowledge. If there were to be a system to hit Florida, how far out are we looking at?

Maybe around the beginning of October, but that's still a long way away to know for sure. No immediate threat, just something to stay aware about.

[SouthFloridawx]

605
ABNT20 KNHC 231729
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now we know what the system will be classified as.

[HurrMark]

605
ABNT20 KNHC 231729
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Can't be any more sure than that...seems like from this that it will only be a TD at 2, although if there is more concrete data in the next few minutes, this could still be initialized as Matthew.

[CrazyC83]

I would have initialized it as Tropical Storm Matthew with a 35 kt intensity based on Recon data.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now on NRL:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc1 ... atest.html

[Evil Jeremy]

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.