What is the future of this season?

[Florida1118]

Heh Im not on the list. Really the way it looked about 1 month ago, one would guess no activity. But look what 3 weeks can do...

[Sanibel]

I think people will be watching the Caribbean in the next few weeks.

[jinftl]

It looks like there are a few contenders for the M-named storm in the next few days. By comparison, the date of the M-named storm was as follows for the following sampling from the list of top-10 busiest seasons. 2010 is pacing itself to easily add its name to the list of 10 Busiest Seasons in the Atlantic:

1995 - Marilyn - September 13
2003 - Mindy - October 10
2004 - Matthew - October 8
2005 - Maria - September 2
2007 - Melissa - September 28
2008 - Marco - October 6

2010 - Matthew - ???

[hurricaneCW]

Well with the entire globe being remarkably quite all the way into mid August, including the Atlantic, it's no surprise why many, including myself, thought it would be a much quieter season. The end of August and this month has been pretty crazy, and if we do see a powerful system out of the Caribbean, then that will just be the icing on the cake. That would make September 2010 one of the most active months in Atlantic hurricane history with up to 7 named storms, and maybe we might be able to squeeze in one more to make it an even 8.

Overall, the quality has won so far. Despite puny systems like Bonnie/Connie/Fiona/Gaston, we have had numerous powerful systems that generated a well above average, but not yet hyperactive, ACE season so far. The biggest surprise was that we've seen 5 majors in total with 4 of them in September alone, and this month is still not over yet. Will we see some Wilma-esque system in the last third of September and then the month of October? How high will the ACE ultimately end up. The big thing is that there are no signs of the season slowing down anytime soon and the danger may just be beginning.

I, however, remain conservative in regards to the ACE. Despite generating over 126 units of ACE so far, I think the final result will be from 155-165 units or right in the hyperactive part of the ACE scale. Reason being, the main focus region of development from now on will be the Central and Western Caribbean. So no matter how strong the Caribbean system becomes, it's unlikely to last for 10 days at a time like we've seen with Danielle, Earl, and Igor so that will limit how high the ACE can rise up to. I suppose there's always the possibility of a longer lasting powerful storm like Wilma to generate a lot of units, but I'm going to be more conservative about it.

[Steve]

>>Well with the entire globe being remarkably quite all the way into mid August, including the Atlantic, it's no surprise why many, including myself, thought it would be a much quieter season.

Handwriting was on the wall. Some people had the need for their posts to be heard to the point that 10, 20, 50, or maybe even 100 times in different threads wasn't enough. Others were saying exactly what was up but that went ignored. That's okay though. Life is funny that way sometimes. Just like the 24 hours news channels, people can believe what they want to believe and find self-validation - even if they're completely wrong. Doomsdayers weren't right either, but some of us had been saying all along to watch and see if the table that was set was what was going to happen.

>>I, however, remain conservative in regards to the ACE. Despite generating over 126 units of ACE so far, I think the final result will be from 155-165 units or right in the hyperactive part of the ACE scale.

I don't think 155-165 is remotely conservative. It's, as you said, borderline hyperactive. It's probably higher than I thought we'd get but I was looking at 14-17 named storms more than I was looking at ACE this year. Both the 155-165 range and 14-17 named storms could end up being pretty close.

[dwsqos2]

I'm beginning to think that the late season will fail to live up to expectations; that is, no major hurricanes will form after October 1. I'm just going to assert this now and perhaps offer reasoning later.

[AussieMark]

I'm beginning to think that the late season will fail to live up to expectations; that is, no major hurricanes will form after October 1. I'm just going to assert this now and perhaps offer reasoning later.

Offer it now so we can see what your seeing?

Or are you only going to offer your suggestion if you turn out to be correct?

[jinftl]

Any science behing this forecast or just a hope to luck out?

Talk to us about sst, tchp, pressure readings, etc in advance....please don't be offended, but your quote on 'perhaps offering reason later' is one of the most hilarious things I have read on this board in the 6 years i have been on it!

Give you credit for at least putting something out there...

I'm beginning to think that the late season will fail to live up to expectations; that is, no major hurricanes will form after October 1. I'm just going to assert this now and perhaps offer reasoning later.

[TYNI]

I'm beginning to think that the late season will fail to live up to expectations; that is, no major hurricanes will form after October 1. I'm just going to assert this now and perhaps offer reasoning later.

In your scenario, hypothetically speaking, there could be 4 Category 2 storms. No majors. One or two cat 2s could landfall... I don't call that a late season forecast missing "expectations".

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[andrewsurvivor]

The jury is still out on the rest of the season but we are seeing seasonal changes that make us more vulnerable especially here in Florida. What worries me is few people have really experienced a "major" hurricane down here. People who experienced Wilma and think that was bad haven't seen anything yet. I hope people realize that the difference between Wilma and an Andrew or Charley strength storm is shockingly dramatic. Please don't let your guard down. As we all know, things can change rapidly and at this time of year it's always best to be prepared.

BTW, many many thanks to all who contribute all this valuable information to us.

[T'Bonz]

Wilma was strong enough for me, thank you very much. I'd prefer *not* to experience a major.

[andrewsurvivor]

I'm with you, T'Bonz! I'm just concerned because a lot of people think that's what a major cane is like and don't prepare accordingly. My general rule is to at least double the recommended supplies and always have a back up plan. Plan to rely on yourself and hope that help arrives quickly.

[KWT]

Well we are now entering classic La Nina time for strong Caribbean systems to get going, Matthew is the first warning shot but probably not the last, probably could get another 3/2/1 form in the Caribbean/Gulf/Bahamas alone in the next 30-45 days before things finally shut down to a degree.

[Steve]

Forecasting Hurricanes: Do I Even Want to Be Right?
September 21, 2010 7:00 AM
by Joe Bastardi
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It figures hurricanes would fascinate me. I was born July 18, 1955. My parents were honeymooning in Atlantic City on Oct. 14, 1954, when Hurricane Hazel hit. You do the math.

But now I’m faced with a dilemma involving my hurricane forecast.

It started in the spring of 1976.

I took a forecasting class with Joel Myers, founder of AccuWeather.com, whom I argued with every day (probably one of the reasons Joel hired me). Often, the class boiled down to he and I disagreeing over the weather, while the rest of the class looked on, mystified. I was determined to match him idea for idea, in an attempt to measure up to the best. We trash talked (I remember Joel saying one day that I had peaked) and pushed each other’s buttons (sometimes I’d leave a fake forecast on his desk to see if I could bait him into trying to go for a kill).

When I started working for AccuWeather.com, I viewed it as the weather equivalent of a wrestling team—you had all these great forecasters who would challenge one other and, by doing so, raise the level of the whole operation. In any case, I continued arguing with Joel.

One day he said something to me that, over the years, keeps coming back to me more and more. In the midst of an argument, I reminded him about some forecast he had missed, which really had nothing to do with the disagreement we were having at the time. So, he looked at me and floored me with this: “You know you’re among the best when you start getting judged by your worst day."

Nothing he ever said in that class stopped me like that. The voice of the truth of so many forecast wars had spoken.

Over the years, I realized how true that statement is, because most people simply don’t understand what it takes to get to a level of near perfection. The standard is so high, you have to be right and you have to win—in fact, your personality accepts nothing less than winning.

In February, before anyone else, I issued a forecast for a big hurricane season. At that time, I said a La Niña would develop. (No one saw that, but my knowledge of where the global climate was and where we are going says that the La Niñas will be stronger and longer the next 30 years and the El Niños will come and go much more quickly.)

We are back to where we were in the late '40s and '50s, when the globe began its process of cooling that had people, in the '70s, thinking that an ice age was coming. Since many people refuse to acknowledge or understand the past, it gives me a huge advantage. In addition, the abnormal warmth in the Atlantic (we are in its warm cycle) dictated that the only place that would be above normal this year would be the Atlantic basin. So the forecast was for 16 to 18 total storms—including 7 “impact events” (weather speak for winds greater than those experienced in a tropical storm). In June, this was upped to 18 to 21 total storms, including 8 “impact events.” Of those eight, I predicted that four or five would be hurricanes and two would be major hurricanes on the U.S. coast.

The thrust of my forecast—what I am most concerned with—is not total number of storms, but their impact. So far this year we have had five impact events, but only one (Earl) that produced hurricane conditions. But no big hits yet. No winning the big game, so to speak, even though it’s obvious now that all dissections of the pattern that led to my February prediction were on target.

Now comes the dilemma.

I think the U.S. is going to get hit enough to bring the impact forecast in line when we total everything up. In fact, the places that should see the most action the rest of the season are the eastern and central Gulf, the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. The computer models are seeing this. That’s no assurance I am right, but a sign that my reasoning is being echoed by an objective source.

But do I root against my own forecast? If I am right, it means misery, pure and simple. Look at Bermuda; Veracruz, Mexico; and, of course, the destruction caused by recent hurricanes on our coasts.

I have wrestled with this question for years. The enthusiasm one gets from forecasting the capabilities of nature is tempered by the resulting misery. Not to mention that a lot of people don’t like me, and are ready to pounce on anything I say that goes wrong.

They want to do what I tried to do to Joel: use a mistake in one area as ammunition for another, which is a rotten way to try to win an argument. I was wrong in doing it then, and I got what I deserved.

I don’t know the answer to my hurricane dilemma. My wife, Jess, tells me my problem is that I analyze everything. If I have a bad day lifting, I want to know why. If I get a cold, I want to know where it came from.

If I’m wrong about a weather situation, I will find out why and try not to let nature beat me with the same move again. Since nature is an infinite opponent, it has infinite moves, but I try not to get beat with the same move twice.

If I am right this time, I will have done a service in warning people beforehand. Yet it will mean destruction. If I am wrong, then it calls into question everything I do. The wolves are circling, and it’s a no-win situation for me.

Perhaps there are some questions that are never meant to be answered. But the search for the answer will make you better. It’s ironic, because I tell the kids I help in the Nittany Lion Wrestling Club that you should ask questions of yourself when you train that only you and the good Lord can answer. And when you get the answer, move to the next question.

But I am stuck with this one. It is one I wrestle with often, but one I have not solved. Perhaps it’s meant to be that way. I'll let you know if I ever get the answer.

[Florida1118]

Forecasting Hurricanes: Do I Even Want to Be Right?

That was sad...I feel bad for the man, even though he didnt do anything...

[Steve]

JB dropping the hammer?

Who knows. I still think the Caribbean, Bahamas, FL and NE Gulf have some reckoning. Time will tell if any of the hits are significant.

[dwsqos2]

Looking at current modeling, we may have quality issues that hold down ACE values. If a storm isn't that strong, it will not produce much ACE obviously. Ironically, numbers may be less of a problem.

[cycloneye]

Well, the season is now at 13/7/5 with the upgrade of Lisa to hurricane.Not a wimpy season as it was said by mid August.Lisa will add some more ACE units that were unexpected.

[dwsqos2]

I am almost sure that breaching 160 ACE will be a struggle. All current modeling shows is a bunch of weak, short-lived storms.

[Florida1118]

I am almost sure that breaching 160 ACE will be a struggle. All current modeling shows is a bunch of weak, short-lived storms.

And they have also shown full bred hurricanes. Just wait...160 is only 30 more, and a major or two can take care of that...