Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[srainhoutx]

If the 18Z GFS is to be believed, ALL the Gulf Coast needs to be watching. Another run, another solution.

[South Texas Storms]

wow 18z gfs then moves this system westward across the NGOM before it weakens.

[paintplaye]

Ridge to the north keeps it from moving anyway but west:

[lonelymike]

I'd believe the Euro setup before anything from an 18z model especially from the GoodForSewage model. Just overall track record.

[gatorcane]

Another shot of the 18Z GFS:

[Dean4Storms]

That would put a very strong pressure gradient all across the SE states north of that Storm. I'll believe it when I see it!

[KWT]

The thing that is a little worrying for me is the possible addition to possible extratropical boosts as the system starts to head to the NNE/NE, its a classic evolution we've seen many times where a system gets ventilated...

Still that can work both ways I suppose.

If the models are to be believed the gyre should set-up in the next 24-48hrs as Matthew dies and a new low starts to develop in its place.

Either way the threat is clearly there for a landfalling system, I personally think the ECM maybe a little too far east but if there is to be a shift in the models it'll be to the east and not the west IMO...thats the nomal routine.

Hurricane Irene is probably a good system to compare this one with actually fwiw...

[lonelymike]

Why do you think the Euro is too far east?

[srainhoutx]

Have you looked at the Euro Ensembles?

[lonelymike]

Have you looked at the Euro Ensembles?

Not todays run

[gatorcane]

Any guesses on when this area will become an invest? I say maybe as early as Sunday afternoon or evening.......

[BigA]

Euro ensembles for 12Z are somewhat to the west of the operational, going into the GOM, but then somehow going back to the Caribbean at 240 hours.

[Vortex]

Any guesses on when this area will become an invest? I say maybe as early as Sunday afternoon or evening.......

Im going with sunday afternoon...between honduras and jamaica...

[Vortex]

add UKMET to the rest...

12Z H120


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[gatorcane]

Consensus is pretty good from the globals. Now it's the waiting game to see how this all unfolds....I do think something is going to form in the Caribbean from this. Florida could be a target this time.

[Vortex]

Gota love accuweather...Has winds gusting over 60mph in Miami next friday night.



http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/miami/ ... asp?fday=6

[tina25]

Gota love accuweather...Has winds gusting over 60mph in Miami next friday night.



http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/miami/ ... asp?fday=6

Naples will have gusts of 63mph.

[Blown Away]

Absolutely SLAMs south Florida......on the 18Z

GFS is pretty consistent with a strong system (hurricane) into Southern FL......

That would be an epic track to come from the SW and landfall on the FL east coast!

[SootyTern]

Gota love accuweather...Has winds gusting over 60mph in Miami next friday night.



http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/miami/ ... asp?fday=6

64 degrees next weekend?????

(that's about a month early)

[daisy32]

new poster here... they have tampa gusting to 82mph next Saturday