Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

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SouthFloridawx
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#301 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:56 am

ROCK wrote:did any one pull the EURO ensembles from this afternoon?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2010092412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#302 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:59 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
ROCK wrote:did any one pull the EURO ensembles from this afternoon?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2010092412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Well that looks to have Southwest Florida written all over it...

SFT
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#303 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:04 am

12z ECM ensembles.....strange it runs it toward FL then sits in the yucatan channel then gets pushed back towards the carib at 240hr

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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#304 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:07 am

ROCK wrote:12z ECM ensembles.....strange it runs it toward FL then sits in the yucatan channel then gets pushed back towards the carib at 240hr

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif


That doesn't even make sense...Especially when it appears that there is a trough digging across the Eastern CONUS.

SFT
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#305 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:09 am

didnt have any time to look at the 18z GFS today...looks like Texas gets some left overs..albeit just some rain...
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#306 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:09 am

look out rock...00z gfdl turns nw at the end.... :D




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#307 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:10 am

The EURO should be coming out real soon...
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#308 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:14 am

Euro out to 72hr


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Re:

#309 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:16 am

Vortex wrote:look out rock...00z gfdl turns nw at the end.... :D




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


Nah, now that we have dry air into the CONUS anything coming north in my neck of the woods will be gulping dry air all the way to landfall.......ala Lilli.....and Rita...
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#310 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:19 am

ROCK wrote:Euro out to 72hr


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Btw, thats at 48 8-)
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#311 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:20 am

its 1:20am cut me some slack.... :lol:
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#312 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:21 am



Pretty good trough draped across the SE...

SFT
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#313 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:26 am

slow updating tonight...
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Re:

#314 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:29 am

Vortex wrote:slow updating tonight...



ugh..I know...brutal...neither the ECM site or eastern....
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#315 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:32 am

Do you guys think there could be some interaction with the upper level low near Haiti and Cuba... that's causing some convection in the Eastern/Central Caribbean?

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#316 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:34 am

H72 ecm broad area of low pressure across the nw carribean



500mb


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP072.gif
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#317 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:36 am

120hr

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#318 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:37 am

H96 we have lift off....low pressure forms just west of jamaica...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif
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#319 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:37 am

H96 we have lift off....low pressure forms just west of jamaica...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#320 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:38 am

Maybe ECM is a good solution...
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