Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[ROCK]

144

[Vortex]

H120 just s of central cuba and stronger


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

H144 just se of se florida...stronger......very similar to the gfs but much faster



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[Vortex]

500 mb



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the ECM brings the trough down much faster and stronger than the GFS...

SFT

[Vortex]

With the ecm and gfs continuing to indicate a healthy storm/hurricane in the vicinity of sfl i have to beleive something will come of this and possibly quite serious very near southern florida....

[Vortex]

canadian/ecm much faster than the gfs...likely something in between

[SouthFLTropics]

Too early to say if this will miss SFLA or not but I think it will get close enough to at least give everyone a scare and probably warrant watches and warnings for a portion of the peninsula...

SFT

[Vortex]

H168 passing bahamas and out to sea



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[jlauderdal]

This would be a serious flood event....not to mention the very strong winds...This would last for several days

if this were to come anywhere close to panning out then that dusty old raft in the garage will be coming out with that dusty old generator(duh, i do start it every couple of months) i talked about a few days ago

even if the low werent deep and we dodged a wind event you could sure see a large rain event happening

you guys in sofla remember the noname storm and the water that thing put down

[Blown Away]

While I think this low will materialize, not sold on it being a hurricane, I find it fascinating the models have a system SE of Florida in only @6 days while we still have Matt and no sign of this new low. What's up with the Euro it's been a west outlier most of the season and now an east outlier for this potential system.

[jlauderdal]

While I think this low will materialize, not sold on it being a hurricane, I find it fascinating the models have a system SE of Florida in only @6 days while we still have Matt and no sign of this new low. What's up with the Euro it's been a west outlier most of the season and now an east outlier for this potential system.

we shouldn't have a low yet based on the models

[gatorcane]

The 06z gfs brings it into the western gom.

[Vortex]

6Z GFS is probably unrealistic as far as the low North of honduras taking over and heading towards the western gulf in the shorter term. Given the pattern and forecasted synoptics with dry more stable air over the western gulf and the time of year it would appear unlikely. ....More likely the energy firing just off the NW coast of South America this morning is where we need to watch in the short term.. This will likely spark a vorticity with the energy heading towards Jamaica over the next few days. In the medium range the GFS continues to advertise energy organizing into 2 lows...One near Jamaica and the other North of Honduras...Initially the low N of Honduras takes over then in the longer term the low near Jamaica becomes the show..ALL embedded within a large monsson low...Bottom line, I think genesis with slowly evolve near Jamaica or the Caymans...

[Vortex]

6Z HWRF implies broad low pressure forming near Jamaica and the caymans.




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

you gotta love the 6Z GFDL...one of my favorites yet...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ospreygrad]

6Z GFS is probably unrealistic as far as the low North of honduras taking over and heading towards the western gulf in the shorter term. Given the pattern and forecasted synoptics with dry more stable air over the western gulf and the time of year it would appear unlikely. ....More likely the energy firing just off the NW coast of South America this morning is where we need to watch in the short term.. This will likely spark a vorticity with the energy heading towards Jamaica over the next few days. In the medium range the GFS continues to advertise energy organizing into 2 lows...One near Jamaica and the other North of Honduras...Initially the low N of Honduras takes over then in the longer term the low near Jamaica becomes the show..ALL embedded within a large monsson low...Bottom line, I think genesis with slowly evolve near Jamaica or the Caymans...

Yes, I noticed that flare-up off of South America this morning. I agree with you in this is the area to watch for the possible development of the new low pressure area in the coming days.

[x-y-no]

What's up with the Euro it's been a west outlier most of the season and now an east outlier for this potential system.

For what it's worth, the Euro ensembles are a bit west of the operational.

[Kyuuubi]

While I think this low will materialize, not sold on it being a hurricane, I find it fascinating the models have a system SE of Florida in only @6 days while we still have Matt and no sign of this new low. What's up with the Euro it's been a west outlier most of the season and now an east outlier for this potential system.

Given the pace of intensification for most of this years hurricanes I wouldn't rule this out. So far only Alex and Lisa* are the only two out of the 7 this year that weren't major hurricanes. And Wilma is a classic case of how quickly these things can strengthen rapidly. Nevertheless it's still far ahead, and I don't expect anything like Wilma IMPO.

*Lisa is forecast to weaken from where it is now by the National Hurricane Center

[cycloneye]

Will this be the culprit for development? Look down to Maracaibo at the bottom left.