Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[ospreygrad]

Will this be the culprit for development? Look down to Maracaibo at the bottom left.

Yep that is the area Vortex and I am referring to. I definitely think that is the area to watch down there for new development over the next 48-72 hours.

[GCANE]

you gotta love the 6Z GFDL...one of my favorites yet...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

LOL - a harmonic oscillator

[GCANE]

Looks like the TUTT is slowly dissipating.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... rod=vor200


Not as dry on WV as yesterday.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[srainhoutx]

HPC this morning...

WHILE THE ENS MEANS OF GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR AND EITHER COULD
BE USED AFTER DAY 5 OVER CONUS THE HPC PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS THE
00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN BASED ON ITS HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL LOW
FORMATION IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ITS SLOWER AND MORE WWD LIFT
NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CMC HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FAST
WITH ITS EJECTION INTO FL DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH THE 00Z ECMWF PICKING
IT UP BY DAY 5 AND RUNNING IT UP OFF THE ERN SEABOARD DAY 7 SAT.
UKMET HOLDS THE CIRCULATION BACK NEAR YUCATAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
GFS OVER CENTRAL CUBA WHERE IT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES BEFORE IT IS
PICKED UP BY LATE SATURDAY AND EJECTED NEWD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ENS MEANS KEEP THE CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ERN GLFMEX NEAR THE
WRN FL COAST BY DAY 7. WHILE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS IS A BETTER
MATCH TOWARDS THE LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST LOCATION AND THE
TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO EJECT CARIBBEAN/LOWER GLFMEX SYSTEMS TOO
FAST.

A PATTERN CHANGE FOR ERN CONUS TO COOLER AND QUITE WET WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A LINGERING TROF AND COASTAL
FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN SEABOARD LATE WEEK. WELL ABOVE AVG
TEMPS OVER WRN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED LOCATIONS
ESPECIALY IN THE ROCKIES HAVING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS. A HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND THREAT FOR CUBA AND FLORIDA MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING UPON THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WRN
CARIBBEAN LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SEE TPC/HPC
DISCUSSIONS AND POTENTIAL FUTURE ADVISORIES.

[cycloneye]

HPC on day 7:

[jlauderdal]

i want to see the infamous accuwx cone for this thing, i bet it would be humongous

[pepeavilenho]

NOO!
It's in the EPAC, not Maracaibo

I made a map



Blue=Matthew
Black=Tropical wave(¿future Nicole?)

Actual situation.


You should check the vorticity maps

[ROCK]

HPC on day 7:

HPC sure backing off on that front....every day it gets closer to the CONUS rather than they had it digging to MX City a few days back.... The front should clear our coast but I got a feeling it will back up until the next one can push it farther out. Thats how the evolution of our weather typically is.

[ROCK]

[artist]

so are things looking better for Florida? I have looked at the NHC discussion and the local area discussions and don't see much of a mention as we had all week from them.

[ospreygrad]

so are things looking better for Florida? I have looked at the NHC discussion and the local area discussions and don't see much of a mention as we had all week from them.

As of now there is still general consensus among the reliable models that we will possibly see development of Nicole within the next few days somewhere in the vicinty of the western Caribbean Sea. We just have to conitnue to monitor the situation and continue to follow the model runs.

[johngaltfla]

HPC on day 7:

THAT'S the one our local mets are all watching closely. Telling everyone to stay calm but to stay tuned. I've never seen the models pretty much in agreement that by next Wed we'll have a hurricane in the NW Caribbean. That's a pretty bold consensus, IMHO.

[johngaltfla]

so are things looking better for Florida? I have looked at the NHC discussion and the local area discussions and don't see much of a mention as we had all week from them.

Do not get comfortable. I don't think I've ever seen our local mets mention a model consensus this much. By Monday afternoon there should be a better handle on this. Just my 0.02 on the subject, but stay aware because it could intensify rapidly.

[artist]

thanks guys. I thought what everyone posted regarding the models still showed it, but thought it strange the NWS and NHC didn't make much mention of it now after all week making a big deal of it. I guess it is a wait and see and the wait can be excruciating! lol
We are ready, if it does transpire - just need to put up the shutters if it pans out.

[SFLcane]

NWS miami earlier this morning...

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN TURN MORE EASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN IN THE
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND TIMING OF UPPER
LOW WEAKENING...WILL BE PIVOTAL IN DETERMINING OUR WEATHER LATE
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY...WE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

[artist]

NWS miami earlier this morning...

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN TURN MORE EASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN IN THE
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND TIMING OF UPPER
LOW WEAKENING...WILL BE PIVOTAL IN DETERMINING OUR WEATHER LATE
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY...WE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

yeah, a small mention but they aren't telling visitors and residents to watch the NHC this week like they were yesterday.

[ospreygrad]

HPC on day 7:

THAT'S the one our local mets are all watching closely. Telling everyone to stay calm but to stay tuned. I've never seen the models pretty much in agreement that by next Wed we'll have a hurricane in the NW Caribbean. That's a pretty bold consensus, IMHO.

Yes it is obvious that the models for a few days now have definitely latched onto a significant development in the Western Caribbean. I think by Monday we probably should be seeing future Nicole in the developmental stages. Definitely all interests in the NW Caribbean, Eastern GOM, the Florida peninsula and even potentially the U.S. East Coast will be dealing with the effects of this system the mid-late part of next week.

[srainhoutx]

Key West this morning...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE TROUGH LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INSIST (AS IT HAS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS) THAT A BROAD
MONSOON TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION AND HOW ANY
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW MIGHT EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BECOME HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY ONWARD. IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHAT (IF ANY) WEATHER IMPACTS MIGHT BE
EXPERIENCED IN THE KEYS...ESPECIALLY AS IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY THAT
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WILL DISSIPATE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK BEING A SEPARATE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM THE FORECASTED MONSOON TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS OF 40 PERCENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRENDING UPWARD TO 50 PERCENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

[Vortex]

The area to watch the next 2 days is just SE of Jamaica...On the visible this morning you can see what may be the beginning of an area of low pressure that the GFS has been keen on developing the last few days...It's a complex situation that looks to be evolving with the monsoon trough..This may become the dominant low in the days to come or rotate about into a larger circulation to the NW...

[Jinkers]

Max Mayfield mentioned it on Local 10 here in Miami, said it could be a concern for ust this comming week, but then this morning, they said the low could be more west, therefore not a threat to Florida, only time will tell...