Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[WeatherEmperor]

Oh boy. It's run after run after run showing this thing getting really close to South Florida. I am slowly becoming more concerned about this.....

Vortex, what strength does the 12Z Euro depict at it's closest approach to South Florida?

[dwsqos2]

It shows a sprawling, elongated 997 mb low.

[ROCK]

Are we sure what GFS develops is a new system or the LLC of Matthew that hangs around?

Hmmmm..good question. Look at the latest model guidance..I see a trend that Matthew's ghost kicks back ENE into the Western Caribbean: (note the CMC is not on there which if it develops Matthew's ghost it would be shooting it NNE)

The LBAR is pointing right at Texas...

[psyclone]

well, I do think that if something forms south florida would be the primary target vs the fl west coast or the panhandle. i keep thinking of an irene-esque (1999) track, which, incidentally, was initially progged to approach and hit the west coast but veered east. of course i should mention i'm not a met nor did i stay at a holiday inn express last night.

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[Hurricaneman]

a Wilma, Charley or Donna track can not be ruled out either for this storm

[JtSmarts]

I noticed that Irene (1999) has been mentioned a few times I'm posting the track for those that don't remember. I too think she may be a good analog for what might transpire next week.

Hurricane Irene (1999)

[Steve]

lmao rock.

Joe B is on board with the FL hit

[quote=Joe B]Whether it is Matthew, or a reformed version of it, perhaps with the name Nicole, a hit is coming for Florida later next week, then the storm could move north into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states.[/quote]

[SFLcane]

12z ecm...

[dizzyfish]

From the models I have seen posted it looks to me like just about the entire state will feel the effect of whatever/whoever it is due to the size.

Am I correct in this thinking?

[ROCK]

if whoever doesnt make the connection with the trof and gets left behind, I wouldnt rule out a panhandle issue with a scrape of west FL....no offense Ivan but I would rather it track that way than over SFL. The assets I am over in SFL far outweigh what I have in the panhandle. As always we need something to track first but we can get a hint of the upper levels in the 5-7 day time frame..Thats what we should focusing on. That and latest path of Matt or any other suspect area in the Carib....

[hurricaneCW]

I know many people bring about past storms and how the tracks could play out based on what past storms had done, however, comparing tracks to past storms doesn't really work unless there's enough information to back them up. What I mean by that is, are the synoptic patterns similar, are the track patterns similar because the upper level patterns agree to some extent, and other details of that sort.

So people bring about Irene's track and while the storm could take a similar track, the details behind that track could be completely different.

[Vortex]

look at the lates vis close-up..you can already see the very broad low pressure center setting up over the SW part of the gulf of honduras...

[Ivanhater]

Noticable westward shift...

GFS Panhandle



UKMET...Heading toward the central Gulf coast



NOGAPS...Heading NNW toward central gulf coast



I think this has a lot to do with the location of the new LLC developing closer to the Yucatan and the trough being more shallow and faster...still very uncertain right now

[Vortex]

the panhandle east is fair game..what's becoming more apparent is the broad area of low pressure associated with matthew per the lates vis will likely be over the gulf of honduras/nw carribean in about 2-3 days...I think the ukmet is to far west at day 5 and the ecm may be to far east at day 7...something in between looks good...at least until the 18Z runs come out

[gatorcane]

Ivanhater the gfs really hasn't shifted much to the west if you really think about it. I could easily see it going back to what it has been showing the past runs prior which is through peninsula Florida. That would be consistent with the cmc and only a bit more left of the euro.

Look at this trough... How can it get to the central gulf coast or even western panhandle with that?

[ROCK]

Noticable westward shift...

GFS Panhandle

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168m.gif

UKMET...Heading toward the central Gulf coast

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

NOGAPS...Heading NNW toward central gulf coast

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... z/f180.gif

I think this has a lot to do with the location of the new LLC developing closer to the Yucatan and the trough being more shallow and faster...still very uncertain right now

agree....a lot of variables to play with...Ivan...

[Vortex]

In fact, look at the close-up and speed the loop..youll notice a weak vortex at the mid-low levels spinning under the cirrcus just north of eastern honduras...exactly where the NHC places a low in 72 hours...



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[ROCK]

Ivanhater the gfs really hasn't shifted much to the west if you really think about it. I could easily see it going back to what it has been showing the past runs prior which is through peninsula Florida. That would be consistent with the cmc and only a bit more left of the euro.

Look at this trough... How can it get to the central gulf coast or even western panhandle with that?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif


thats the 60hr NAM your posting 500mb......what about posting something in the time frame all the other models show? the cut off low is overdone...has been since early this week....plus its the NAM

[Ivanhater]

Easy Gator..your posting the trough placement when the system is just beginning to form way down in the Caribbean.

The GFS is now showing this trough a lot more shallow and lifting out faster. Makes sense for this time of the year. It is rare to have deep digging trough along the Gulf coast this time of year..It is not November....Very tropical in Pensacola today as per normal this time of year

[gatorcane]

Rock even with that 500mbchart you posted above which is further out in the nam run, those west winds in the northern gom would keep it away from there. The nam is actually good atforecasting steering patterns.

By the way the euro which is arguably one of the best at forecasting steering keeps a long-wave trough over the eastern half of north America for at least the next 10 days.