Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

Ivanhater the gfs really hasn't shifted much to the west if you really think about it. I could easily see it going back to what it has been showing the past runs prior which is through peninsula Florida. That would be consistent with the cmc and only a bit more left of the euro.

Look at this trough... How can it get to the central gulf coast or even western panhandle with that?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l.gifquote]


thats the 60hr NAM your posting 500mb......what about posting something in the time frame all the other models show? the cut off low is overdone...has been since early this week....plus its the NAM

the NAM does a remarkable job with the synoptics...

[Vortex]

18Z NAM rolling....

[Vortex]

18Z NAM at H24 has a low exactly where I can see a vortex spinning this afternoon just North of eastern Honduras...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif

[Vortex]

That vortex is basically stationary and this would be called nicole...

[ROCK]

point is you posted 60 NAM to show the position of the cut off low and how deep it was. At 84hr the cutoff low is moving out...

[Vortex]

I really that area could be the beginning of nicole..the energy east along with the monson trough will likely lift north and work wnw adding additional energy igniting genesis

[gatorcane]

Easy Gator..your posting the trough placement when the system is just beginning to form way down in the Caribbean.

The GFS is now showing this trough a lot more shallow and lifting out faster. Makes sense for this time of the year. It is rare to have deep digging trough along the Gulf coast this time of year..It is not November....Very tropical in Pensacola today as per normal this time of year

Hey ivan, I don't see you referencing the euro which keeps a deep trough over the eastern part of the united states for days and days........All the way through 10 days in the run

Considering the gfs was very close to the euro until the last run I would wait before we can say there is a risk to the panhandle. Now if the models show panhandle tomorrow also then I may start to be a believer

[Ivanhater]

point is you posted 60 NAM to show the position of the cut off low and how deep it was. At 84hr the cutoff low is moving out...

Exactly...development is now pushed back and the trough is lifting out much faster. It is not November along the Gulf coast...still very much in the tropical environment right now.

[Vortex]

16.8N/85.4 W...very suspect...

[Ivanhater]

Easy Gator..your posting the trough placement when the system is just beginning to form way down in the Caribbean.

The GFS is now showing this trough a lot more shallow and lifting out faster. Makes sense for this time of the year. It is rare to have deep digging trough along the Gulf coast this time of year..It is not November....Very tropical in Pensacola today as per normal this time of year

Hey ivan, I don't see you referencing the euro which keeps a deep trough over the eastern part of the united states for days and days........

Considering the gfs was very close to the euro until the last run I would wait before we can say there is a risk to the panhandle. Now if the models show panhandle tomorrow also then I may start to be a believer

Because there are plenty of posts pointing out the threat to South Florida. I'm pointing out the changes in the models that are shifting west with a faster and shallower trough.

[WeatherEmperor]

Honestly, I think the models will be all over the place. A shift here and a shift there from one location to another. The pattern is just way too complex. The bottom line is that the models continue to show something developing in the NW Caribbean and bring it in the general direction of the state of Florida. The thing they differ on is which parts of the state get hit. Until this thing actually forms, we will see this continue to change.

[Vortex]

take a look at NHC/TAFB at H72 its exactly in that spot..dead on...

[gatorcane]

Easy Gator..your posting the trough placement when the system is just beginning to form way down in the Caribbean.

The GFS is now showing this trough a lot more shallow and lifting out faster. Makes sense for this time of the year. It is rare to have deep digging trough along the Gulf coast this time of year..It is not November....Very tropical in Pensacola today as per normal this time of year

Hey ivan, I don't see you referencing the euro which keeps a deep trough over the eastern part of the united states for days and days........

Considering the gfs was very close to the euro until the last run I would wait before we can say there is a risk to the panhandle. Now if the models show panhandle tomorrow also then I may start to be a believer

Because there are plenty of posts pointing out the threat to South Florida. I'm pointing out the changes in the models that are shifting west with a faster and shallower trough.

will admit that the trough seems quite strong for this time of year. I would expect to see a trough like this towards the end of October not end of september

[WeatherEmperor]

Although it would be unusual for such a deep trough to be in place for late September, I don't think Mother Nature cares one bit about what time of year it is. If nature wants to dig a trough that deep, it will go ahead and do whatever it wants to. Heck, I remember some friends from work laughing at me when I suggested that the trough that eventually caused Charley 04' to hit SW Florida, really would dig far south and it was only the first part of August! The trough can and will happen...if nature really wants it to.

[Vortex]

Take a look at that cutoff low..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

[Vortex]

NWS tallahassee..Ivan enjoy the cooler/drier air!! Is this eary for you?




.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AS THE FRONT STALLS EAST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. POPS ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 10 PERCENT
OVER THE WESTERN AREA TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY BE SEPARATE FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE MATTHEW. A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE PREFERRED
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME WITH A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 00Z GGEM SEEMS TOO FAST WITH A 992 MB LOW OVER
TAMPA BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS IS PREFERRED. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MAY
ADVECT SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GOING.

&&

[Ivanhater]

The Front will stall and likely lift back up as a warm front. Just too early for a deep digging persistent trough. With development pushed back, the trough may not be able to pick it up.

[jlauderdal]

Easy Gator..your posting the trough placement when the system is just beginning to form way down in the Caribbean.

The GFS is now showing this trough a lot more shallow and lifting out faster. Makes sense for this time of the year. It is rare to have deep digging trough along the Gulf coast this time of year..It is not November....Very tropical in Pensacola today as per normal this time of year

Hey ivan, I don't see you referencing the euro which keeps a deep trough over the eastern part of the united states for days and days........

Considering the gfs was very close to the euro until the last run I would wait before we can say there is a risk to the panhandle. Now if the models show panhandle tomorrow also then I may start to be a believer

Because there are plenty of posts pointing out the threat to South Florida. I'm pointing out the changes in the models that are shifting west with a faster and shallower trough.

guys, you are both right but are getting caught up in the model flip flopping that always happens especially since we dont even have a system, im going to predict you both see weather from this weather it be an increase in rain or wind, be happy...

[gatorcane]

NWS tallahassee..Ivan enjoy the cooler/drier air!! Is this eary for you?




.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AS THE FRONT STALLS EAST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. POPS ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 10 PERCENT
OVER THE WESTERN AREA TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY BE SEPARATE FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE MATTHEW. A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE PREFERRED
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME WITH A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 00Z GGEM SEEMS TOO FAST WITH A 992 MB LOW OVER
TAMPA BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS IS PREFERRED. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MAY
ADVECT SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GOING.

&&

Inland over NW Florida, NWS is showing lows in the mid to upper 50s (Crestview) for Wed night this week with North to Northeast winds, clear skies for good radiatonal cooling and low dewpoints.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

Wow that is some front if that happens. It's still end of September! Send some of that our way. Probably won't be until Novermber until we get something like that

[Vortex]

H66 200mb..take a look at the upper pattern...very conducive for strengthening as the Nicole should be centered just N of eastern Honduras...I think well have an invest up by sunday evening..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif