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Trader Ron wrote:IF the models are pointing toward Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll be concerned.
Vortex, Thank you for posting all the model-runs. It's very time consuming.
I dont' think lows in the 60's are all that uncommon for central Florida. Now if we were talking late Aug/early Sept. I'd say you're right, but afterall it is late sept/early Oct. So yes, unusual but not that unusual.ballred wrote:While NWS offices in the Panhandle and N. Central Florida may be predicting abnormally low temps here in Tampa it's pretty much SSDD
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=144&map.y=138&site=tbw
The most interesting thing that I noticed was in the discussion:
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH BREAKS
THE RIDGE INTO TWO PARTS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. BEYOND THAT TIME ITS
ANYBODYS GUESS AS MANY MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR
SOUTH THEN MOVE IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND
NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
I HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO HIGH. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND 50/50 RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SO
MUCH IS PREDICATED ON WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. I
HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE TO AVOID
FLIP-FLOPPING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.
It sure seems that he doesn't have much confidence in what's going on.
I know that I don't post here much. For the most part It's because I don't feel as though I have a lot to offer. In this case though I must say that if we see even 70 degrees as a low at this time of the year I'll be stunned. To see the 60's? That would be a once in 20 yr. event.
JMHO Brian
Vortex wrote:H66 200mb..take a look at the upper pattern...very conducive for strengthening as the Nicole should be centered just N of eastern Honduras...I think well have an invest up by sunday evening..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif
It is SO NOT beyond the realm of possibility that a front can dig down like that this time of year. Does anyone here remember the front that shoved Charley our way? And that was Aug 13!gatorcane wrote:Vortex wrote:NWS tallahassee..Ivan enjoy the cooler/drier air!! Is this eary for you?
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AS THE FRONT STALLS EAST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. POPS ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 10 PERCENT
OVER THE WESTERN AREA TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY BE SEPARATE FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE MATTHEW. A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE PREFERRED
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME WITH A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 00Z GGEM SEEMS TOO FAST WITH A 992 MB LOW OVER
TAMPA BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS IS PREFERRED. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MAY
ADVECT SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GOING.
&&
Inland over NW Florida, NWS is showing lows in the mid to upper 50s (Crestview) for Wed night this week with North to Northeast winds, clear skies for good radiatonal cooling and low dewpoints.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text
Wow that is some front if that happens. It's still end of September! Send some of that our way. Probably won't be until Novermber until we get something like that
Blown Away wrote:Vortex wrote:H66 200mb..take a look at the upper pattern...very conducive for strengthening as the Nicole should be centered just N of eastern Honduras...I think well have an invest up by sunday evening..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif
Give me some Lat/Longs on where you think this LLC may spin up?
Vortex wrote:I have little doubt will not be matthew...I was wavering before but I can already see signs of the new spin-up and its only indirectly related to matthew...
Blown Away wrote:Vortex wrote:I have little doubt will not be matthew...I was wavering before but I can already see signs of the new spin-up and its only indirectly related to matthew...
I know it's likely not going to be the spot, but there is a slight spin near 16N/76W that does not appear to be associtated with the ULL over DR. Boy there sure is alot of convection in the Caribbean.
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