Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[HURAKAN]

72 hours

[Vortex]

thats exactly where the vorticity is spinning on the hi-res vis close-up this afternoon...It will remain quas-stationary the next few days...Once the trough digs a slow N/NNE motion should begin late tuesday with the birth of nicole...I expect an invest on sunday....

[Vortex]

18Z NAM H72 places low exactly where NHC does as well...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Trader Ron]

IF the models are pointing toward Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll be concerned.

Vortex, Thank you for posting all the model-runs. It's very time consuming.

[HURAKAN]

I want to echo Ron, Vortex is doing a great job with the models. You have taken it personal!! lol

[Vortex]

IF the models are pointing toward Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll be concerned.

Vortex, Thank you for posting all the model-runs. It's very time consuming.

No problem..I enjoy providing the information...I know many on here may not know neccessarily where to pull the information so it's my pleasure..

[Vortex]

18Z NAM loop...looks reasonable to me and actually what I expect and where NHC places the developing low....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

I think if would be a good thing if one of our pro mets visit this thread and explain a little bit about all this complex situation,to see if the peeps can understand what could be unfolding in the next few days. Also, if this is going to be a new TC formation from a new entity, or from the Matthew leftover. I echo what Ron and HURAKAN said about Vortex.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS rolls in 35 min.....

[SFLcane]

18z NAM...

[ballred]

While NWS offices in the Panhandle and N. Central Florida may be predicting abnormally low temps here in Tampa it's pretty much SSDD

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=144&map.y=138&site=tbw

The most interesting thing that I noticed was in the discussion:

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH BREAKS
THE RIDGE INTO TWO PARTS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. BEYOND THAT TIME ITS
ANYBODYS GUESS AS MANY MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR
SOUTH THEN MOVE IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND
NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

I HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO HIGH. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND 50/50 RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SO
MUCH IS PREDICATED ON WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. I
HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE TO AVOID
FLIP-FLOPPING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.

It sure seems that he doesn't have much confidence in what's going on.

I know that I don't post here much. For the most part It's because I don't feel as though I have a lot to offer. In this case though I must say that if we see even 70 degrees as a low at this time of the year I'll be stunned. To see the 60's? That would be a once in 20 yr. event.

JMHO Brian

[otowntiger]

While NWS offices in the Panhandle and N. Central Florida may be predicting abnormally low temps here in Tampa it's pretty much SSDD

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=144&map.y=138&site=tbw

The most interesting thing that I noticed was in the discussion:

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH BREAKS
THE RIDGE INTO TWO PARTS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. BEYOND THAT TIME ITS
ANYBODYS GUESS AS MANY MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR
SOUTH THEN MOVE IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND
NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

I HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO HIGH. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND 50/50 RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SO
MUCH IS PREDICATED ON WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. I
HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE TO AVOID
FLIP-FLOPPING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.

It sure seems that he doesn't have much confidence in what's going on.

I know that I don't post here much. For the most part It's because I don't feel as though I have a lot to offer. In this case though I must say that if we see even 70 degrees as a low at this time of the year I'll be stunned. To see the 60's? That would be a once in 20 yr. event.

JMHO Brian

I dont' think lows in the 60's are all that uncommon for central Florida. Now if we were talking late Aug/early Sept. I'd say you're right, but afterall it is late sept/early Oct. So yes, unusual but not that unusual.

[Blown Away]

H66 200mb..take a look at the upper pattern...very conducive for strengthening as the Nicole should be centered just N of eastern Honduras...I think well have an invest up by sunday evening..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

Give me some Lat/Longs on where you think this LLC may spin up?

[otowntiger]

NWS tallahassee..Ivan enjoy the cooler/drier air!! Is this eary for you?




.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AS THE FRONT STALLS EAST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. POPS ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 10 PERCENT
OVER THE WESTERN AREA TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY BE SEPARATE FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE MATTHEW. A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE PREFERRED
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME WITH A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 00Z GGEM SEEMS TOO FAST WITH A 992 MB LOW OVER
TAMPA BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS IS PREFERRED. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MAY
ADVECT SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GOING.

&&

Inland over NW Florida, NWS is showing lows in the mid to upper 50s (Crestview) for Wed night this week with North to Northeast winds, clear skies for good radiatonal cooling and low dewpoints.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

Wow that is some front if that happens. It's still end of September! Send some of that our way. Probably won't be until Novermber until we get something like that

It is SO NOT beyond the realm of possibility that a front can dig down like that this time of year. Does anyone here remember the front that shoved Charley our way? And that was Aug 13!

[Vortex]

H66 200mb..take a look at the upper pattern...very conducive for strengthening as the Nicole should be centered just N of eastern Honduras...I think well have an invest up by sunday evening..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

Give me some Lat/Longs on where you think this LLC may spin up?

around 17n/85W

[Vortex]

I have little doubt will not be matthew...I was wavering before but I can already see signs of the new spin-up and its only indirectly related to matthew...

[Blown Away]

I have little doubt will not be matthew...I was wavering before but I can already see signs of the new spin-up and its only indirectly related to matthew...

I know it's likely not going to be the spot, but there is a slight spin near 16N/76W that does not appear to be associtated with the ULL over DR. Boy there sure is alot of convection in the Caribbean.

[KWT]

Yeah it'll probably a new system but its clearly being given alot of energy by Matthew to get going...

Anyway we are rather lucky that the models take a good solid 3-4 days to get going otherwise it'd have some time to fester and stew down there...

As it is the models, esp the CMC/ECM solution, is worrying because we've seen many times before systems such as this interact with extratropical features and explode into life.

[Vortex]

roll time 18Z GFS on the way....

[Vortex]

I have little doubt will not be matthew...I was wavering before but I can already see signs of the new spin-up and its only indirectly related to matthew...

I know it's likely not going to be the spot, but there is a slight spin near 16N/76W that does not appear to be associtated with the ULL over DR. Boy there sure is alot of convection in the Caribbean.

That vorticity should rotate around the larger circulation but the main show will take shape North of Eastern honduras and SW of the caymans...