Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

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gatorcane
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Re:

#541 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 4:38 pm

Vortex wrote:roll time 18Z GFS on the way....


6 hours in the run and Matthew's low has stalled just offshore Belize. Trough taking shape across the central conus.
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Re: Re:

#542 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 4:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Vortex wrote:roll time 18Z GFS on the way....


6 hours in the run and Matthew's low has stalled just offshore Belize. Trough taking shape across the northern conus




That energy should eject east with the devloping main low(nicole) N of eastern Honduras by H72
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#543 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 4:47 pm

H30 broad low pressure over gulf of honduras..surface low over alabama and digging trough...all the players are on the field...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
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#544 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 4:51 pm

That's a very large broad low taking shape........ :eek:
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#545 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 4:51 pm

H36 energy ejects east towards main low North of central/eastern honduras...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif
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#546 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 4:57 pm

H48 just N or eastern Honduras...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif
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#547 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 4:58 pm

A very serious flood threat for many countries...
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#548 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:02 pm

H54 a little deeper..N of eatern honduras..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
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#549 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:03 pm

Low organizing in the nw Carib at 60 hours.

I do believe nhc is going to need to give the nw Caribbean at least a code yellow this evening or later tonight........Maybe a code red or orange by tomorrow evening or Monday morning.

Models are just too persistent on developing something though nothing is there at the moment.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:06 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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#550 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:03 pm

H60 between NE Honduras and the Caymans..TD closing in on TS status...slow NNE movement



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif
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#551 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:07 pm

H78 strengthening likely Nicole at this point..South of western Cuba...

**Very favorable upper-air environment

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif
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#552 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:07 pm

78 hours heading ne towards western Cuba and organizing. :eek:

Trough is more amplified in this run digging all the way south into the northern gom! Areyou kidding me? That is a november-like trough
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#553 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:10 pm

IMO how this is going to evolve has become much more clear...
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Re:

#554 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:11 pm

Vortex wrote:IMO how this is going to evolve has become much more clear...



Think about this, we are only talking 78 hours and gfs thinks we have Nicole............

The timeline is shrinking.......

Time for nonbelievers to believe :D
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#555 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:13 pm

H102 western cuba stronger..will it make the connection or get left behind?????


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
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#556 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:14 pm

so far looks identical to ecm and very similar to canadian....
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Re:

#557 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:15 pm

Vortex wrote:H102 western cuba stronger..will it make the connection or get left behind?????


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif



Not sure but I know ivanhater is watching........ 8-)
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#558 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:15 pm

looking more and more like the keys/fl will deal with this beginning as soon as thursday night and especially friday....
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Re: Re:

#559 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Vortex wrote:H102 western cuba stronger..will it make the connection or get left behind?????


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif



Not sure but I know ivanhater is watching........ 8-)


Trying to go back and forth with this stressful Alabama game :eek:

Heading due north out of the Caribbean so far
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#560 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 5:17 pm

h120..bizarre look...seems to get sheared out..copius rain for fl...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
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