Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

Looks like gfs stretches it out like the euro does......may not be that strong into florida

Maybe some rain and wind.

What's up with Alabama.....I'm watching also

[Vortex]

it looks to merge with the trough along the east coast and shear out...leaves low pressure back behind in the nw carribean where another spin-up may occur

[Ivanhater]

No clue Gator! ugh!

Very stretched out absorbed in the front this run..that's some good news

[Vortex]

Are we clear now :


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

[Ivanhater]

No real landfall this run..energy transferred to the low off the Carolinas

Shut it Mike!

[ROCK]

if I hear another Charley front reference I am going to reger my beer......

FWIW- the NWS have known to bust on temps. I think the front will pass the FL panhandle and the ULL lifts out at 84hr....See the mighty NAM.....leaves a weakness right over the NE GOM.....

we are not talking develop (if any) until a good ways after 84hrs....that ULL will be long gone by then....

[WeatherEmperor]

if I hear another Charley front reference I am going to reger my beer......

FWIW- the NWS have known to bust on temps. I think the front will pass the FL panhandle and the ULL lifts out at 84hr....See the mighty NAM.....leaves a weakness right over the NE GOM.....

we are not talking develop (if any) until a good ways after 84hrs....that ULL will be long gone by then....

The 18Z GFS says it will stay around long enough beyond 84 hours.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_s.shtml

[KWT]

Its a fine line though this evolution and we've already seen once the models severely underestimate strengthening in another similar type of pattern where a upper trough drapped well south and that was with Julia...of course its a different set-up but the way the models expected it to shear out when instead it found super favourable conditions is something to keep a close eye on indeed.

[lonelymike]

if I hear another Charley front reference I am going to reger my beer......

FWIW- the NWS have known to bust on temps. I think the front will pass the FL panhandle and the ULL lifts out at 84hr....See the mighty NAM.....leaves a weakness right over the NE GOM.....

we are not talking develop (if any) until a good ways after 84hrs....that ULL will be long gone by then....

Just to point out the strong front for Charley happened in August. It's now late September Rock and you really should be back in school

[gatorcane]

Well we also know models were suggesting a cat 1 at most for Wilma because of dry air and shear from the approaching trough. That obviously didn't happen.

Models are generally not good with intensity.

Ivan Alabama rolling....

[SFLcane]

[ericinmia]

It simply is:

1.) We should all be prepared for the season anyway...
2.) Florida doesn't exist in some alternate universe because it has been perennially destroyed by 'model' storms.
3.) This is a good reminder to those of us that know, to make sure that we have all our plans ready... and to do some basic spring/"fall lol" cleaning.
4.) There is generally good consensus that 'something' may be coming up the state at somepoint late next week/weekend. So that gives everyone plenty of time to track it and prepare.

If the storm were to come across south florida...
"As for the rest of south florida that will be outside begging for water and food; yelling at the local/county/state governments 12 hours after the storm..."

[hurricanedude]

Some of those runs look like a good ole fashioned NOR' EASTER for the Mid-Atlantic.....which as far as tidal flooding is concerned...would be worse than a hit from a TS. OBX and Hampton Roads knows this all to well

[hurricaneCW]

This could be the case where Florida and the east coast sees a string of weaker tropical system rather than one big powerful system. That's what the gfs seems to suggest, it has the first low forming in a couple of days, but it becomes strung out as it impacts Florida but then it has another storm forming in the Caribbean and heading in the same direction.

The constant interaction with land masses will probably prevent any of these systems from becoming too powerful but a hurricane can't be ruled out. I just see a lot of flooding up and down the east coast especially in Florida for the next few weeks. Flooding will probably be the biggest issue rather than wind or storm surge.

Actually the flooding rains with Matthew in CA is probably a good example of the pattern unfolding for Florida and at least the SE coast, moderate slow moving tropical system with heavy rains.

[tina25]

I would love for the pro-mets on the board to weigh in on this situation.. it sure is unusual.

[dmbthestone]

Will definitely be keeping an eye on this..

[otowntiger]

if I hear another Charley front reference I am going to reger my beer......

FWIW- the NWS have known to bust on temps. I think the front will pass the FL panhandle and the ULL lifts out at 84hr....See the mighty NAM.....leaves a weakness right over the NE GOM.....

we are not talking develop (if any) until a good ways after 84hrs....that ULL will be long gone by then....

Well, sorry just go ahead and throw up, because it was a very relavent comment considering all the talk about the 'unusual front'. It may be unusual, but far from historic and in no way unprecedented.

[Ptarmigan]

A complicate setup in the Caribbean leads to a uncertainty. A monsoonal low over the Caribbean and East Pacific is very concerning for Central America. This type of setup is hard to predict and could lead to a hurricane. A situation like this was Wilma in 2005 and Mitch in 1998.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[caneseddy]

I mentioned earlier today that I would not be surprised of the 18z GFS would shift east towards the Fl East Coast after showing a west coast hit in it's previous runs (like it did yesterday) and lo and behold it did the same thing as yesterday

As for strength I don't look at models for strength because that is the only thing the model cabot pick up; there are examples if models underestimating the strength of storms because of their interactions with a trough (Wilma being the perfect example wherbt models were predicting a weak hurricane into FL because of dry air and the trough and instead the trough ventilated it and strengthened it prior to landfall)

The important thing is that the models are consistently showing a Florida hit;as to how strong.....who knows

[gatorcane]

So any guesses as to when the nhc is going to mention this in the tropical weather outlook and assign the nw Caribbean a code?

I have to say they will probably mention it tomorrow or later tonight. Convection is growing in the monsoon trough axis stretched over the western caribbean. The gfs and cmc show development starting in 48 to 72 hours