Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
Just to point out that the Euro and the CMC are a little slower with this system than the recent GFS runs , I would not be surprised if things played out a little slower and that could mean amuch stronger system moving out the carribean.
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- SouthFloridawx
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
dwsqos2 wrote:Each successive run of the gfs has been weaker and weaker. I am sensing another dud.
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You're sensing a dud...I'm sensing a boatload of rain. Better make sure I got the boat ready to go!
SFT
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
the western caribbean should be able to incubate storms for another month easily. i wouldn't be surprised if we get another 3 or 4 between now and the end of october. as for this system, if it remains sheared junk it could be a net benefit for florida by delivering widespread heavy rain right before the start of the dry season
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
SFLcane wrote:ECMWF/GFS seem to have come into some agreement that upper conditions aren't going to be to friendly for this tropical low. May turn out to be just a rain maker for florida.
Yeah but that's a huge rain maker. Remember we don't need a strong hurricane to cause massive damage, remember Allison. A series of moisture filled strong out lows with a widespread windfield can be very dangerous for a huge swath of real estate.
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
SouthFloridawx wrote:Vortex... check this out...
168
177
Exactly what I thought...GFS is too fast lifting Nicole out of the carribean...IMO this will be quite a bit stronger and wont suffer any significant shear until it reaches N of 27-30N
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- ConvergenceZone
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Phew, so glad the shear is forecasted to be high...This is the best news yet....I just hope the rain isn't so horrible that it causes lots of flooding....
Lots of rain though, but it least we won't have a bombing hurricane to worry about, which is excellent news. It might be a fairly soggy tropical storm though.
Lots of rain though, but it least we won't have a bombing hurricane to worry about, which is excellent news. It might be a fairly soggy tropical storm though.
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
hurricaneCW wrote:SFLcane wrote:ECMWF/GFS seem to have come into some agreement that upper conditions aren't going to be to friendly for this tropical low. May turn out to be just a rain maker for florida.
Yeah but that's a huge rain maker. Remember we don't need a strong hurricane to cause massive damage, remember Allison. A series of moisture filled strong out lows with a widespread windfield can be very dangerous for a huge swath of real estate.
The flooding potential with this thing could be serious similar to that of irene in 99 were i got close to 11 inches by the airport.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
hurricaneCW wrote:SFLcane wrote:ECMWF/GFS seem to have come into some agreement that upper conditions aren't going to be to friendly for this tropical low. May turn out to be just a rain maker for florida.
Yeah but that's a huge rain maker. Remember we don't need a strong hurricane to cause massive damage, remember Allison. A series of moisture filled strong out lows with a widespread windfield can be very dangerous for a huge swath of real estate.
I'll give you another example...Remember a wimpy Tropical Storm in 2008 by the name of Fay. Dumped a boatload of rain on this area and caused millions in damage...Like you said, it doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause significant impacts.
SFT
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
So according to GFS the first weather we get and a series of lows across Florida will start at about Hour 90 and won't end until about Hour 276. That's about 7 days of rain... tons of rain.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
Vortex wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Vortex... check this out...
168
177
Exactly what I thought...GFS is too fast lifting Nicole out of the carribean...IMO this will be quite a bit stronger and wont suffer any significant shear until it reaches N of 27-30N
I agree.
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- dmbthestone
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- gatorcane
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Hmmm though the models show some shear, I wouldn't claim now that it cannot become a hurricane. The waters are going to be very warm where it is traversing and models are not the greatest with the intensity forecast that far out anyways....
For all we know the euro later tonight shows a much stronger system.
For all we know the euro later tonight shows a much stronger system.
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