Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1889
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#721 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:30 pm

Just to point out that the Euro and the CMC are a little slower with this system than the recent GFS runs , I would not be surprised if things played out a little slower and that could mean amuch stronger system moving out the carribean.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#722 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:31 pm

Vortex... check this out...
168
Image
177
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#723 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:31 pm

take it for what it is...i think the gfs is too fast in lifting the main low out of the carribean...
Last edited by Vortex on Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#724 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:31 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:Each successive run of the gfs has been weaker and weaker. I am sensing another dud.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



You're sensing a dud...I'm sensing a boatload of rain. Better make sure I got the boat ready to go!

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

#725 Postby psyclone » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:32 pm

the western caribbean should be able to incubate storms for another month easily. i wouldn't be surprised if we get another 3 or 4 between now and the end of october. as for this system, if it remains sheared junk it could be a net benefit for florida by delivering widespread heavy rain right before the start of the dry season
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#726 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:32 pm

216 and the Trough leaving...
Image
0 likes   

dwsqos2

#727 Postby dwsqos2 » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:32 pm

Rain events happen all the time. If you want to follow something as stultifying as that, the be my guest.
0 likes   

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#728 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:32 pm

SFLcane wrote:ECMWF/GFS seem to have come into some agreement that upper conditions aren't going to be to friendly for this tropical low. May turn out to be just a rain maker for florida.


Yeah but that's a huge rain maker. Remember we don't need a strong hurricane to cause massive damage, remember Allison. A series of moisture filled strong out lows with a widespread windfield can be very dangerous for a huge swath of real estate.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#729 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:33 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Vortex... check this out...
168
Image
177
Image



Exactly what I thought...GFS is too fast lifting Nicole out of the carribean...IMO this will be quite a bit stronger and wont suffer any significant shear until it reaches N of 27-30N
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#730 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:34 pm

Phew, so glad the shear is forecasted to be high...This is the best news yet....I just hope the rain isn't so horrible that it causes lots of flooding....

Lots of rain though, but it least we won't have a bombing hurricane to worry about, which is excellent news. It might be a fairly soggy tropical storm though.
0 likes   

dwsqos2

#731 Postby dwsqos2 » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:35 pm

And of course Predict is calling this the big one. It will likely be quite large. Big=size not power or significance.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#732 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:35 pm

FINALLY Leave at 276
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#733 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:36 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
SFLcane wrote:ECMWF/GFS seem to have come into some agreement that upper conditions aren't going to be to friendly for this tropical low. May turn out to be just a rain maker for florida.


Yeah but that's a huge rain maker. Remember we don't need a strong hurricane to cause massive damage, remember Allison. A series of moisture filled strong out lows with a widespread windfield can be very dangerous for a huge swath of real estate.


The flooding potential with this thing could be serious similar to that of irene in 99 were i got close to 11 inches by the airport.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#734 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:37 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
SFLcane wrote:ECMWF/GFS seem to have come into some agreement that upper conditions aren't going to be to friendly for this tropical low. May turn out to be just a rain maker for florida.


Yeah but that's a huge rain maker. Remember we don't need a strong hurricane to cause massive damage, remember Allison. A series of moisture filled strong out lows with a widespread windfield can be very dangerous for a huge swath of real estate.


I'll give you another example...Remember a wimpy Tropical Storm in 2008 by the name of Fay. Dumped a boatload of rain on this area and caused millions in damage...Like you said, it doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause significant impacts.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#735 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:37 pm

I can't stress this enough...More times than not the models will generally want to lift these storms out of the carribean too quickly...the swings of the GFS over the last day with regards to timing is my point..
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#736 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:37 pm

So according to GFS the first weather we get and a series of lows across Florida will start at about Hour 90 and won't end until about Hour 276. That's about 7 days of rain... tons of rain.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#737 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:37 pm

Vortex wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Vortex... check this out...
168
Image
177
Image



Exactly what I thought...GFS is too fast lifting Nicole out of the carribean...IMO this will be quite a bit stronger and wont suffer any significant shear until it reaches N of 27-30N


I agree.
0 likes   

User avatar
dmbthestone
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010 6:59 pm
Location: Tampa

#738 Postby dmbthestone » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:38 pm

It appears people are leaning away from this becoming a hurricane?
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#739 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:38 pm

Hmmm though the models show some shear, I wouldn't claim now that it cannot become a hurricane. The waters are going to be very warm where it is traversing and models are not the greatest with the intensity forecast that far out anyways....

For all we know the euro later tonight shows a much stronger system.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#740 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:39 pm

Image
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: hurricanes1234, MarioProtVI, Stratton23 and 43 guests