Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[ericinmia]

Thanks for the arguments folks but let's get back on topic please

I concur....please take your spat to our wonderful PM service...or I will be forced to do it for you

I was just responding to a thread clean up, rule following, etc. request that was laughed at from last night.
If one goes through the comments that were being posted page after page, it's obvious it had to be said.


I just checked for JB's morning updates, and all he's talking about is the high temps coming to the west coast.
No update on the storm ideas... Maybe he's waiting it out to issue anything new...

[Air Force Met]

Just looked at a 24 loop of the 850 mb vorticity...and it is really beginning to consolidate around 17/82...now that Matthew is exiting stage left.

This is pretty much what the globals have been calling for...especially the GFS. Good pattern recognition on their part. The end game is a little iffy...but the idea for development seems to have been spot on.

[RevDodd]

Is the general model consensus that whatever and where this develops, it will roll along that frontal boundary just off the Atlantic coast?

[gatorcane]

Loop the visible here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

What I see is that a very large circulation is developing where people have been discussing, north of Honduras. Also, look at the plume of moisture it is pulling in all the way from the EPAC........

No moisture shortage at least not at the moment

Now at the top of the loop you can see the cold front digging down to the Southern Gulf coast as the cloud are moving eastward.

All the ingredients are coming together for this to lift out of the NW Caribbean over the next couple of days.

The big question is how strong it can get.

[emeraldislencguy]

flying into key weston october 4 and staying till the 11th
should the storm threat be over by then

[Vortex]

Invest up shortly I suspect...those around the board yesterday remember I was referencing 17/85 as it was evident there was a vorticity there all day...It's now very apparent...It appears to be organizing a bit faster than expected..A trend we need to watch very closely today....Residents in FL need to begin keeping very close tabs on this system..Flooding rains and a higher than normal tornado threat(shear induced) appear likely with this storm/hurricane...

[ROCK]

have to go with the NOGAPS, CMC solutions....a sheared out storm looks like a good bet with this Sept front digging halfway to SA....

[gatorcane]

have to go with the NOGAPS, CMC solutions....a sheared out storm looks like a good bet with this Sept front digging halfway to SA....

Quite possibly. I mean what a cold front if that really materializes -- that is something you see more like the end of November..

But --- the shear poses additional issues as mentioned by Vortex. A strong jet over Florida with this system could be a recipe for a tornado outbreak even if it is sheared.

And let's not forget that Wilma was expected to be sheared as well, and not be a major issue.

Still, my call at this point is a sheared Tropical storm with mostly rain and some wind depending upon where it makes landfall. But that is just a guess.

I guess that is what makes watching the tropics so interesting and intriguing to me because you never know what will actually happen ultimately.

[srainhoutx]

[cycloneye]

A snipet from TD Matthew last discussion as last advisory was written.

OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE REMNANT
OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 TO
48 HOURS OR SOONER.

[Vortex]

folks be careful with the models and only thinking a sheared out moderate storm for FL...I've seen it many a times over the last 30 years where the models overdo the shear especially south of 25N...shear will play a part especially as it gets North of 25-27N. My concern is this develops quicker than expected as the conditions over the NW carribean for at least the next 3 days look very favorable. Take that with genesis and bathtub water and you have a recipe for a hurricane....Watch the trends very closely today...

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm worried that the trough will not dig as far as forecast and could ventilate the system instead of shear it. Thankfully, seems unlikely at this point.

[gatorcane]

Can somebody post some SST maps for the Caribbean? I would like to see what the sea surface temperatures look like....

[Air Force Met]

A snipet from TD Matthew last discussion as last advisory was written.

OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE REMNANT
OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 TO
48 HOURS OR SOONER.

I think he meant to say "THE REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY COUNTER CLOCKWISE
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION"

If its rotating inside a gyre...and is on the west side...it should be moving counter-clockwise. Clockwise would take it out over the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

folks be careful with the models and only thinking a sheared out moderate storm for FL...I've seen it many a times over the last 30 years where the models overdo the shear especially south of 25N...shear will play a part especially as it gets North of 25-27N. My concern is this develops quicker than expected as the conditions over the NW carribean for at least the next 3 days look very favorable. Take that with genesis and bathtub water and you have a recipe for a hurricane....Watch the trends very closely today...

well said Vortex. I couldn't agree more.

BTW, 10% seems a bit low if you ask me. Probably a 50% or greater chance by the end of the day today (code orange for 2pm and code red for 8pm)

So far I must say, the timeline is what I expected. NHC code by late last night or this morning. Invest by this afternoon or evening...

Now I will say probably a named system sometime on Tuesday....

Where are the nonbelievers from earlier this weekend/week?

[ericinmia]

Can somebody post some SST maps for the Caribbean? I would like to see what the sea surface temperatures look like....

[Vortex]

12Z NAM looks to move a Strong TS/Hurricane right over SFL Wednesday evening...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[caneman]

Any model runs out there right now??

[Vortex]

I expect this will jump quickly to TS Nicole by tomorrow night...

[SouthFLTropics]

Can somebody post some SST maps for the Caribbean? I would like to see what the sea surface temperatures look like....

Smoking hot...some of the hottest if not THE hottest in the basin. I'm with Vortex in the thinking that this will eventually be affected by shear but it may not be until it gets to around 26 or 27 north. If that's the case it's already on top of us. There is plenty of time for something to get cooking in a big way down there. Don't let your guard down South Florida. There are some very interesting days ahead.

SFT