Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

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Vortex
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#1161 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 10:53 pm

500mb....


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal042.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Yellow

#1162 Postby boca » Sun Sep 26, 2010 10:54 pm

Gator theirs some convection poping down their 50 to 75 miles SW of Jamaica,its not clearing up down there.
Look closely i see some turning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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#1163 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 10:56 pm

H48 intensifying a bit more...near isle of youth...still favorable aloft...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal048.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Yellow

#1164 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 10:57 pm

H54 a little stronger...over west-central cuba






http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
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#1165 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 10:59 pm

IMO, I don't think this is going to be as weak as some think...
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#1166 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 10:59 pm

h54 500mb


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Yellow

#1167 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:00 pm

Still intensiying at 60hrs....

Image
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#1168 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:01 pm

H60 over lower keys...a little stronger


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Yellow

#1169 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:01 pm

This looks similar to the canadian at 66hrs.... :eek:

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1170 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:02 pm

H60 a little stronger...over lower keys...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif
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Re:

#1171 Postby ericinmia » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:02 pm

Vortex wrote:H60 over lower keys...a little stronger


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif


A 997 "GFS" depicted low could easily be a hurricane.... (just something to ponder...)
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#1172 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:03 pm

H66 stronger...moving over sfl....
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Yellow

#1173 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:03 pm

SFLcane wrote:Still intensiying at 60hrs....


Stronger than the last run, that is for sure. :eek:
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Re: Re:

#1174 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:03 pm

ericinmia wrote:
Vortex wrote:H60 over lower keys...a little stronger


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif


A 997 "GFS" depicted low could easily be a hurricane.... (just something to ponder...)


Yep...Gets down to 996mb.
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Yellow

#1175 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:04 pm

Intensity wise looks very similar to the 12z cmc run.
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#1176 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:05 pm

I am still surprised at the 10% the NHC is giving this with all it's model support. I say bump it up to 30% at 2 AM. If they're wrong, they're wrong. If they're right, they could get people's attention sooner. We should have this invested by now to get some dedicated GFDL and HWRF runs going.
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#1177 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:05 pm

H78 moving off east coaast of FL....pressures remain very low over the NW carribean...we may see storm 2 develop once again as the model updates...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal078.gif
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#1178 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:05 pm

H78 moving off east coaast of FL....pressures remain very low over the NW carribean...we may see storm 2 develop once again as the model updates...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal078.gif
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Re:

#1179 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:06 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:I am still surprised at the 10% the NHC is giving this with all it's model support. I say bump it up to 30% at 2 AM. If they're wrong, they're wrong. If they're right, they could get people's attention sooner. We should have this invested by now to get some dedicated GFDL and HWRF runs going.


I agree and that has been my thinking also. With the GFS really bullish on the 00Z, assuming other 00Z models are they HAVE to bump it and tag this as an invest already.

Isn't an invest defined as an area of interest that could develop? I say this fits the description nicely...
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#1180 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:07 pm

I really hope people are paying close attention...its not going to get sheared out to the NE until its making landfall over south florida...IMO it will have sufficient time to become a strong TS or Cat 1....
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