Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[boca]

Maybe the GFS is sniffing out just lower pressure.What I mean is back in May towards the end of May the GFS develops fantasy storms down in the SW Caribbean that never develop,maybe this is the same situation.

[Vortex]

Don't look now Florida...A strengthening TS Paula approaching western cuba in one week....


H168



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[ericinmia]

I wish Derek was still around, he was always a great voice of reason and clarity...

It'll be interesting to see what is down in the Carib in the morning:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

We should have something getting going by tomorrow afternoon, or we may not get much if this draws out too long.
-Eric

[tina25]

Maybe the GFS is sniffing out just lower pressure.What I mean is back in May towards the end of May the GFS develops fantasy storms down in the SW Caribbean that never develop,maybe this is the same situation.

I could be off base with this, but I thought generally "fantasy storms" are not so consistent, and usually appear in the long range?

[Vortex]

In the future we may need to start new threads....sorry mods for posting I'll finish with paula

[Weatherfreak000]

The GFS is seriously adamant about developing 3 systems.. it just seem way to ridiculous

Oh man...if it happens though you would have to really start liking our chances of maybe even seeing the greek alphabet. I mean I know that's a bit unrealistic but 5 storms this october.....is it possible?

[boca]

I'm still very skeptical on development since their is popcorn activity down there but nothing is organizing.Lets see what tomorrow brings.

[Vortex]

H180 sitting just south of western cuba as strong ridge blocks northward advancement for now.....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

well in 05 we had what Ophelia, and Nate develop from the same trough left behind from Maria.. its not un heard of.. but that was slightly different scenario..

[Evil Jeremy]

I think this thread should stay open after we get an invest up, so that it can be a discussion source on all the potential systems from this strange, strange setup.

[gatorcane]

Paula looks to hit south florida then ejects to the ne

Going to be a long couple of weeks

[boca]

I think this thread should stay open after we get an invest up, so that it can be a discussion source on all the potential systems from this strange, strange setup.

I like that idea

[Aric Dunn]

The nogaps now develops 2 systems ( for the first time maybe a 3rd once the run is done)

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[DESTRUCTION5]

[jinftl]

As an FYI/reality check....i haven't seen any media coverage of anything regarding what may develop other than a mention that the rain chances may go up later this week during the weather segment of the news....this from a local news media that is hyper-sensitive to anything even remotely suggesting a 'tropical threat' to south florida.

The dialogue here has not yet made the maintstream news....nor should it...yet.

[Vortex]

After sitting over the NW carribean for days as strong ridging was to the north Paula strengthen and makes landfall near SFL



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

[boca]

I know all models are developing systems but I have the see it believe it attitude right now.Until I see something other than random popcorn activity down there I'll jump on it.

[jinftl]

How are we talking Paula when Nicole and Otto are no where near forming?

After sitting over the NW carribean for days as strong ridging was to the north Paula strengthen and makes landfall near SFL



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

If these model runs pan out we are basically in a shooting gallery for the next 2 to 3 weeks.

SFT

[tina25]

As an FYI/reality check....i haven't seen any media coverage of anything regarding what may develop other than a mention that the rain chances may go up later this week during the weather segment of the news....this from a local news media that is hyper-sensitive to anything even remotely suggesting a 'tropical threat' to south florida.

The dialogue here has not yet made the maintstream news....nor should it...yet.

They are saying the exact same thing in my area (on the other coast.) I'm thinking it may be because the weekend staff is on and they aren't as informed as the regulars, so the tune may change a bit tomorrow.