Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Blown Away]

TAFB now showing "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in 72 hours as the low landfalls in SFL.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL...SLOW-MOVING...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ObsessedMiami]

This blob is quite the tease and the NHC is the chaparone. She keeps flashing her legs and the NHC says, she is not that kind of girl, no matter what her reputation says.

[Vortex]

Caymans are gusty out of the SSW with falling pressures...As the day goes on I expect to see an organized center begin to take shape to the WNW of the caymans...I expect it to go to Nicole quickly with such low pressures and deep convection beginning to fire....




Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)
Updated: 54 min 43 sec ago
82 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the SSW
Pressure: 29.74 in (Falling)

[Aric Dunn]

nothing exciting to relay yet .... just the remnants of matthew seem to be creeping into the southern BOC...

[GCANE]

The convergence center as shown on MIMIC-TPW has shifted back east to more over the Bay of Honduras.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

Circulation looks broad and relatively slow rotation which IMHO indicates a slower spin up.

However, convection is very deep and outflow channels seem to be improving by the hour.

200mb vorticity is very low over the convection.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Makes sense.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... =Hollywood

[Aric Dunn]

ok well after looking the most recent visible images and some observations from the area. There appears to small weak LLC possibly forming east of Cozumel. It also shows up on radar out of Cuba.

[Trader Ron]

If NOAA Radio is to believed, it doesn't sound like much of a storm coming our way.
Just a rainy event with winds 15-20 kts.

[srainhoutx]

Upper Low is a bit further S (S of Memphis) than progged. It appears that the GFS may well have been unto something after all....

[otowntiger]

Or it could be related to the fact the NHC still is giving this a 10% shot of developing in the next 48 hours...don't get me wrong...if this is about to blow up, the media will be all over it....it's just that the s2k buzz has eclipsed the actual reality of development so far.

You just hit the nail on the head!!!!

[ericinmia]

You can see a big difference in the region on the Visible in this loop, (shows yesterday, last night, then today...)

Loop: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SATATL_F ... 16vis.html




Incase anyone didn't have the link, the PSU E-wall is a pretty good sight for a bunch of random things. Hard to get used to though at first....
(I like it because I don't have to remember the link, just type "psu ewall" into google. )

E-wall: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
Tropical E-wall: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewalltropatl.html

-Eric

[Vortex]

Watch 18.3/83.5..the 2 convective complexes should gel here and spark genesis later today...

[TheBurn]

[Vortex]

1245Z Vis...Low beginning to organize w of the caymans..Hi-res visible clearly indicates a stronger surface reflection beginning to take shape between the 2 complexes on the western side of the complex closer to the caymans..Expect the 2 areas to merge with a developing LLC right in between....

[Aric Dunn]

1245Z Vis...Low beginning to organize w of the caymans..Hi-res visible clearly indicates a stronger surface reflection beginning to take shape between the 2 complexes on the western side of the complex closer to the caymans..Expect the 2 areas to merge with a developing LLC right in between....

its very weak right now actually and I still cant find a Northerly winds anywhere near by yet. but the greatest low level turn i can see is very near Cozumel.. on the NW side of the convection near Cozumel.

[Blown Away]

Deep persistent convection, broad cyclonic spinning, Code Orange, and TAFB indicating "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in 72 hours. Question, why is this area not an "Invest"???

[gatorcane]

Deep persistent convection, broad cyclonic spinning, Code Orange, and TAFB indicating "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in 72 hours. Question, why is this area not an "Invest"???

I agree, I have no idea why it is not an invest.

[Evil Jeremy]

I logged on this morning and headed directly to SFWMD for computer models. How stupid of me. Well, not me actually. Why is this not an invest yet? There have been worst looking, less threatening systems that have been invested this year.

[cycloneye]

Radar from Pinar del Rio in Western Cuba. Some turning is seen.