Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Bocadude85]

I am not sure this system is going to have much time to develop before it reaches Florida.. lots of convection down there this morning though

[boca]

I was wondering last night why this wasn't an invest. I've seen systems tagged an invest which looked a lot worse than the area in the Caribbean.

[otowntiger]

I logged on this morning and headed directly to SFWMD for computer models. How stupid of me. Well, not me actually. Why is this not an invest yet? There have been worst looking, less threatening systems that have been invested this year.

Just my untrained amateur opinion but is it possibly because the area is still sooo broard and disorganized that they wouldn't know exactly where to place the center of the invest? They can't really call an area this big an invest when the Hurricane Hunters would have to cover many thousands of square miles.

[Blown Away]

I am not sure this system is going to have much time to develop before it reaches Florida.. lots of convection down there this morning though

TAFB says in @72 hours the low will be just over Everglades, plenty of time to develop into at least a tropical storm. I still think this area will become Nicole and will move over SFL as a 40-50 mph TS with lots and lots of rain!

[windycity]

should be shortly, don't you all agree? The way this season has been, it could catch quite a few people by surprise,

[artist]

this was posted yesterday-
TOMORROW'S MISSION:
Monday 27 September

RF24
0530 Techs and Mechanics at aircraft
0545 All access
0800 Local Take off 8.5 hrs duration

PREDICT is flying today. Maybe they are waiting to see what they find.

[Category 5]

Thats gonna be a problem if it verifies.

[cycloneye]

There is also an Air Force plane planned for takeoff around 10:30 AM, but I think it will be canceled.

SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[ericinmia]

Thats gonna be a problem if it verifies.

What is the scale though? What value's does it equal out to...
I'm at work, and don't have my normal links... Thanks!
-Eric

[ColinDelia]

850 mb vorticity.

[Evil Jeremy]

Thats gonna be a problem if it verifies.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

Its interesting how the bulk of the rain, at least in this model run, has shifted away from Florida mostly to the East.

[Category 5]

Thats gonna be a problem if it verifies.

What is the scale though? What value's does it equal out to...
I'm at work, and don't have my normal links... Thanks!
-Eric

Thats just inches of rain.

[boca]

Thats gonna be a problem if it verifies.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

Its interesting how the bulk of the rain, at least in this model run, has shifted away from Florida mostly to the East.

It looks like it covers the reastern half of Florida.

[wxman57]

It's looking like this system would be a sheared TS when it crosses south Florida Wed night/Thursday morning. Perhaps a little stronger when it passes NC, but still a sheared TS. Conditions just don't look "right" for a hurricane. That means the big threat is heavy rain rather than wind.

[Steve]

>>It's looking like this system would be a sheared TS when it crosses south Florida Wed night/Thursday morning. Perhaps a little stronger when it passes NC, but still a sheared TS. Conditions just don't look "right" for a hurricane. That means the big threat is heavy rain rather than wind.

Hey 57, do you subscribe to the possibility of this "gyre" being a spawning grounds for more than one system? As early as last Wed-Thursday, there were a couple of models hinting at 2 or 3 circulations coming from that area. Is that realistic until it winds down or is it just models not being able to handle the transfer? Thanks.

[Trader Ron]

I am not sure this system is going to have much time to develop before it reaches Florida.. lots of convection down there this morning though

TAFB says in @72 hours the low will be just over Everglades, plenty of time to develop into at least a tropical storm. I still think this area will become Nicole and will move over SFL as a 40-50 mph TS with lots and lots of rain!

I agree 100%. My thinking also.

[SFLcane]

It's looking like this system would be a sheared TS when it crosses south Florida Wed night/Thursday morning. Perhaps a little stronger when it passes NC, but still a sheared TS. Conditions just don't look "right" for a hurricane. That means the big threat is heavy rain rather than wind.

So you actually expect this to become a minimal/strong TS before reaching sfl? If you asked me i think it doesn't have time but as you said very heavy rainfall appears to be the primary threat from this disturbance.

[Evil Jeremy]

Its clear that wind won't be as big a threat as the rain at this point, but how much rain can we be expecting? Someone (forgot who) mentioned 20 inches was possible last night. Is that realistic?

[Vortmax1]

5 Day QPF:






http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

[SFLcane]

As far as this disturbance being an invest TPC usually waits until there is a circulation center (at some level). The system does not appear to have one just yet.