Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[flair]

I hope things go okay for y'all in Fl and nothing too serious happens. The HPC now has the axis of the heaviest rain over eastern NC. This system has the potential to be a drought-buster over parts of the Mid-Atlantic if the current forecast verifies. Many areas are in a severe if not extreme drought. The latest drought statement from NWS Wakefield, VA noted that the James River is flowing at a mere 25% of the mean flow, and the lake that supplies the Richmond metro area is at the lowest level ever recorded.

[Evil Jeremy]

Yeah this just has to be an invest within the next few hours, It is indeed amazing how this still isn't an invest even now...

Slowly getting there but odds are this remains weak...probably gotten lucky that the upper trough has dug so very deep.

I disagree that this will remain weak. I have a bad feeling that we may be in for a surprise.

This system won't be weak, but that is how you look at it. The amount of rain that this system will carry, the flooding it could create, and the tornado threat as well aren't really "weak". Winds are just one factor of a tropical cyclone, even though they are the main one.

[boca]

It all depends on eventual track to were the heaviest rain sets up because the east side is the dirty side.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS rolling. Has a 1001 MB low in 24 hours.

[KWT]

Oh without a doubt the rain is going to be the proper threat with this, looks like possibly a very wet 7-10 days coming up from both both tropical and frontal features.

However I think this will be one of those classic rainmakers, systems that get so interlocked with frontal/extratropical features like this tend to struggle to really concentrate the energy I find.

[ROCK]

I would look closer to the eastern blob for development. Its got more convection to work with right now. The one by near the channel seems to be fizzling. Also noted of 3 buoys in the area all have rising pressures.

[Vortmax1]

Whatever heavy rains that may or may not be involved with whatever system evolves could just as easily be shunted offshore of East Coast Florida.
I'm not getting too excited about any of it yet.

[wxman57]

I disagree that this will remain weak. I have a bad feeling that we may be in for a surprise.

Besides your "bad feeling", what are you looking at that would suggest a stronger storm crossing south Florida on Wednesday evening? There really isn't that much time for it to organize and strengthen before it's picked up by the upper-level flow ahead of the cold front. I'd only give it a 40-50% chance of reaching minimal TS strength by the time it passes Florida in 48-60 hrs. And it should be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center. Could have a slightly greater chance of being named between Florida and the Carolinas (50%) but it will be interacting with the cold front by then.

[Javlin]

18'N 85'W looks like its the area to watch hence the flight is progged for that area also.Now it looks like the front is having little effect maybe because the system is shallow ATM.

[Normandy]

It depends on when it gets classified. If it gets classified today, it has plenty of time in the bathwater of the Caribbean to become pretty strong. If it stalls in organizing (which is what most thing it will do) then the chances go way down.

[Evil Jeremy]

36 hours out, and the system is noticeable farther south and east of its 06z run position in the same timeframe (42 hours in that run).

[boca]

This system looks like it could miss Florida to the east with the heavy rains. That big blob east of Jamaica is at 80w and I don't see this moving directly north most likely NNE thru the Bahamas. The more I look at this system the more I think it might just miss us to the east.

[Evil Jeremy]

@48 hours, in the FL straits, still to the east of the 06z run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS out to 54 hours..landfall in South Florida

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

I just want to point out that as there is still no dominant LLC, the models are not as reliable as when there is a LLC.

[tgenius]

This system looks like it could miss Florida to the east with the heavy rains. That big blob east of Jamaica is at 80w and I don't see this moving directly north most likely NNE thru the Bahamas. The more I look at this system the more I think it might just miss us to the east.

Well you live in Boca.. I live in West Kendall..so it may miss you rain-wise for you up north but not so much for us down south

[Dean4Storms]

buoy in the Yucatan Channel

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Good sign that an area of low pressure passed this buoy, but no sign of a closed LLC.

[boca]

This system looks like it could miss Florida to the east with the heavy rains. That big blob east of Jamaica is at 80w and I don't see this moving directly north most likely NNE thru the Bahamas. The more I look at this system the more I think it might just miss us to the east.

Well you live in Boca.. I live in West Kendall..so it may miss you rain-wise for you up north but not so much for us down south

Unless the system has a tight gradient north to south setup we might both miss out.

[CourierPR]

I disagree that this will remain weak. I have a bad feeling that we may be in for a surprise.

Besides your "bad feeling", what are you looking at that would suggest a stronger storm crossing south Florida on Wednesday evening? There really isn't that much time for it to organize and strengthen before it's picked up by the upper-level flow ahead of the cold front. I'd only give it a 40-50% chance of reaching minimal TS strength by the time it passes Florida in 48-60 hrs. And it should be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center. Could have a slightly greater chance of being named between Florida and the Carolinas (50%) but it will be interacting with the cold front by then.

The 12Z GFS depicts a 996 millibar low impacting South Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GFS out to 54 hours..landfall in South Florida

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

996mb's......With the strong ridge developing behind the trough I would suspect at least Hurricane force winds a possibility along the east coast of Florida due to the pressure gradient.