ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[sfwx]

TS Watch for my area at 11:00

[Miami Storm Tracker]

raining hard already in sofla, going to be some serious flooding issues if those rain forecasts from 96L come true

We have had zero rain since yeterday . What area of MIA are you located?

[SouthFLTropics]

TS Watch for my area at 11:00

Is that a question or are you stating a fact?

SFT

[sfwx]

TS Watch for my area at 11:00

Is that a question or are you stating a fact?

SFT

Fact, just received a text.

[brunota2003]

Yep...TS Watches and Warnings posted...First advisory for TD 16 is out.

000
WTNT21 KNHC 281451
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...
THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

[Bocadude85]

Tropical storm warning for jupiter inlet south to cape sable, fl

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 281451
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...
THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[SFLcane]

[chargurl]

Naples,Fl warnings and hazardous outlook.

link:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

[canes04]

I still believe the dominent center is SW of this fix.

[brunota2003]

This is going to be a nightmare for eastern/coastal NC...

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
451 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE TWO EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN...ONE TODAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND THE GROUND BECOMES
SATURATED. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
ON AS SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.

[JtSmarts]

Recon will give us a much more complete view of what's going out there. We could possibly see a different center fix when they arrive.

[hurricaneCW]

Given that it's so broad with widespread low pressures and other possible low centers, I'll stick to what the NHC has to say. This isn't the easiest system to identify because it's atypical, and we still need more organization of the low level center.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well this is the first time we have been in the cone and under a watch this year. I'm suprised that it took almost to the end of September...

SFT

[SFLcane]

SFL should see some gusty winds and some rain but most the heavy stuff will stay over water. Had worst this summer with some severe storms in dade county.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tgenius]

SFL should see some gusty winds and some rain but most the heavy stuff will stay over water. Had worst this summer with some severe storms in dade county.

if the center fix isn't precise, then the rain may come closer than you think... Recon will answer alot.

[blp]

NHC has it further north than I thought south of Isle of Youth. If that is the case the convection is much further away and displaced from the center. I still wonder if we have another vort closer to the caymans.

[Evil Jeremy]

40 KT strength seems conservative IMO, especially with the GFDL and HWRF runs suggesting at least 75 KT for FL. This really is a complex setup.

[CourierPR]

SFL should see some gusty winds and some rain but most the heavy stuff will stay over water. Had worst this summer with some severe storms in dade county.

Where is your disclaimer? I think you are jumping the gun.

[tshizzle]

raining hard already in sofla, going to be some serious flooding issues if those rain forecasts from 96L come true

We have had zero rain since yeterday . What area of MIA are you located?

at work in aventura, was pouring on way in on 95, stopped now but looks like its about to pour again