ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Wthrman13]

I still feel that there will not be much wind/rain in SE Fl. This is not a forecast of a forecast of any kind.

But you technically just made a forecast

Anyway, it's hard to see how SE FL will escape significant rainfall from this system. The models are in pretty good agreement on that.

[plasticup]

very strange recon.. showing what appears to be a more intense Vort well SE of the advisory position.. with sfmr readings in the 40kt + range.. ?? not sure what to make of it yet..

Unflagged? I know FL winds have been way higher down there (as expected) but the vorticity was a surprise

(We were talking about that in the recon discussion thread, for those who are curious)

[hurricaneCW]

I think this system will be a lot worse once it transitions, and I think the Carolinas are going to take the brunt of this system. Maybe some strong tropical storm force winds.

[Aric Dunn]

very strange recon.. showing what appears to be a more intense Vort well SE of the advisory position.. with sfmr readings in the 40kt + range.. ?? not sure what to make of it yet..

Unflagged? I know FL winds have been way higher down there (as expected) but the vorticity was a surprise

(We were talking about that in the recon discussion thread, for those who are curious)

yeah most flagged.. but still a strange wind shift..

[Ladylight]

Still no significant rain here in wpb area. A very cloudy sky and little bursts of rain is all we are seeing.

[capepoint]

I think this system will be a lot worse once it transitions, and I think the Carolinas are going to take the brunt of this system. Maybe some strong tropical storm force winds.

Gee thanks!
I am afraid you are correct though. We have been pounded with rain over the last 48 hours. Wont have time to dry out before this hits. If we get much wind, will have tree problems, and more rain will mean flooding.

[Vortex]

GCANE,

thanks for all your time and expertise. You provide excellent analysis and information to this board

[anarchiver19]

I think this system will be a lot worse once it transitions, and I think the Carolinas are going to take the brunt of this system. Maybe some strong tropical storm force winds.

Gee thanks!
I am afraid you are correct though. We have been pounded with rain over the last 48 hours. Wont have time to dry out before this hits. If we get much wind, will have tree problems, and more rain will mean flooding.

Any opinions as to whether this will be similar to "Nor'Ida" last November here in the Mid-Atlantic? That was a mess!

[GCANE]

GCANE,

thanks for all your time and expertise. You provide excellent analysis and information to this board

Thanks Vortex - my pleasure.

[SootyTern]

very strange recon.. showing what appears to be a more intense Vort well SE of the advisory position.. with sfmr readings in the 40kt + range.. ?? not sure what to make of it yet..

Is this vort near the convection mass to the SE of the advisory position? Could there be a center relocation to this convection?

[plasticup]

very strange recon.. showing what appears to be a more intense Vort well SE of the advisory position.. with sfmr readings in the 40kt + range.. ?? not sure what to make of it yet..

Is this vort near the convection mass to the SE of the advisory position? Could there be a center relocation to this convection?

Turns out it was only a couple readings - just a local feature, not a proper center.

[tshizzle]

you know when GCANE posts, my head nearly explodes with all the graphs and terms and such i've never seen anywhere else

love it though - i dont understand 90% of it, but i love reading them

[Bocadude85]

Wonder if some deep convection will fire on the western side of the circulation durning DMAX

[Windsong]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

I live in South Brevard County and don't think we have had that much rain yet..

I live in Central Brevard County, and we've had at least that already. I am not in a flood zone, but the yards here are already forming huge puddles. Rare thing to see here.

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive to see 997 mb and not even a tropical storm. Talks about how low the pressures are in the area.

In contrast, I always remember that Danny in 2003 was a 75 mph hurricane and the pressure was 1005 mb!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

NAM back to spitting out potentially historic QPF numbers... going to need a boat on portions of 95 if this verifies
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif

That better not push west or I might need a boat and I have had nearly 11 inches of rain in September.

I had nearly 11 inches yesterday. Haha

I am not looking for a westward track either. That could potentially bring even more rain to Wilmington. We are pushing 15 inches for a 3 day total right now.

[fci]

First real band (probably not even related directly to the TD) just came through with it being dark as night, with sideways rain and gusts to probably 30 or so.

[psyclone]

for comparison sake, the pressure in tampa is currently 1004mb.

[kevin]

Thats a 2mb drop in pressure.

[jlauderdal]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

I live in South Brevard County and don't think we have had that much rain yet..

I live in Central Brevard County, and we've had at least that already. I am not in a flood zone, but the yards here are already forming huge puddles. Rare thing to see here.

i live on the east coast of fort lauderdale and we just had a very healthy downpour, watch the totals pile up the next 24 hours on my gauge, link below