Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean

[Weatherfreak000]

Models developing 2 to 3+ storms in the next 10 days. Unreal. Greek Alphabet?

[xironman]

The long range Euro is a hoot.

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS - broad monsoonal low forms again in NW caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_s_loop.shtml

And a hurricane to boot after doing a loop in the NW Caribbean

[TimeZone]

There wasn't much on the 0Z gfs.

Yeah, where's all the storms that were supposed to be developing out this area?

Yep, it looks like it was a fluke afterall, TD 16 seems to be the only one.....I had a feeling
this would happen. Tropics may go quiet after TD 16.

Man you've been saying this now since mid august...you've been wrong every time you've said it...why are you still saying it?

[ConvergenceZone]

Man you've been saying this now since mid august...you've been wrong every time you've said it...why are you still saying it?

Actually when it comes to the USA getting majors, so far I've been very right!
I keep waiting for this strong hurricane hitting the USA that I've been hearing for months.

[Macrocane]

LOL that's true ConvergenceZone even if you don't want there is going to be more storms so be patient and wait for December 31 to arrive and then we can be sure that there are not going to be more storms on teh 2010 hurricane season .

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow: LOL that's true ConvergenceZone even if you don't want there is going to be more storms so be patient and wait for December 31 to arrive and then we can be sure that there are not going to be more storms on teh 2010 hurricane season .

I understand Macrocane, most of my comments are sarcastic based upon
the accopolipic predictions that were made prior to the season starting. I've seen the active part, but I've yet to see the horrible apocalyptic predictions come to pass in regards to landfalls for example that many predicted....
Here's my reasoning, nothing seems to get together quickly this year, unless it's in the Atlantic of course,
and we all know that CV season is pretty much over. It seems like anything that forms in the carib or gulf struggles
like crazy to even be named...If it's this bad now, I don't expect that in October when fronts are digging down stirring
more shear that it's going to be better, in fact it will probably be worse, even more so in November in December.
So based upon what we've seen this year so far, nothing points to an active carib or gulf...

Now, I have seen previous years where something spins up in the Gulf or Carib and before you know it, it's a hurricane.
The conditions just aren't there this year for that to occur..... This year, we are struggling to even get a tropical
depression or storm out of the Carib or Gulf. Keep in mind I'm talking about the Carib and Gulf, not the Atlantic.

Case in point, look at the models that were once predicting TD16 to be a strong hurricane, or at least a hurricane....
Yet, this TD has had a very difficult time even spinning up to TS status and this is just past the peak of hurricane season. This is what I mean.

[Macrocane]

You got a point. JB, CSU and other forecasters said that US had a high chance of major landfalls and that has not verified yes we've had a very active season overall but the strongest storms have not affected the US and that's why I like better the NHC forecasts because they don't predict landfalls. I believe we can't rule out a major hurricane lanfall in the US though we're running out of time.

[HURAKAN]

A forecast we can be grateful hasn't verified although we still have October to go through

[ConvergenceZone]

You got a point. JB, CSU and other forecasters said that US had a high chance of major landfalls and that has not verified yes we've had a very active season overall but the strongest storms have not affected the US and that's why I like better the NHC forecasts because they don't predict landfalls. I believe we can't rule out a major hurricane lanfall in the US though we're running out of time.

Yea, the landfall predictions are absolutely idiotic in my opinion.
I don't even know why anyone makes them. Perhaps it's to put "fear" into
the public when it comes to hurricane season. They really need to do away with those,
as they only make themselves look bad and inaccurate for predicting something they
have no clue about.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

3-7 days



HPC likes the idea too

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THE COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING AND IS STILL
EXPECTED TO ALMOST STALL ALONG THE FL E COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEVELOPING TS OVER NW CARIBBEAN TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA
TONIGHT THEN ACCELERATE N ALONG THIS QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WED
AND WED NIGHT INTO THU. AS LOW RACES N OF AREA WILL GET THE
FRONT MOVING E AGAIN THU AND EARLY FRI. THE FRONT STALLS AGAIN
AND SETS UP THE NE TRACK FOR A POSSIBLE SECOND TROPICAL LOW TO
MOVE OUT THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND.

[blp]

I am starting to question the strength of these additional systems that all the models show in that they all seem to have pressures that are not that low if you look at it from the perspective we are now facing now with the unusually low pressures across the NW Caribbean. T.D. 16 has shown that 997MB barely cuts it as a depression with these background pressures. Of course this can all change with each run so we will see....

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL right over SFL in 5 days...




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=120hr

[Vortex]

NAM H84 just south of Cuba


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[LaBreeze]

Actually the 06Z GFS shows a low forming in 86 hours (Saturday) and eventually making its way to Florida as a hurricane on a Charley TRACK

Here is the loop

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

I doubt this will come to pass, as Saturday is only a few days away and we don't even have an area for this we are
even tracking. The GFS seems infamous for pulling this type of stuff...

edit: if you mean NEXT Saturday, then I understand, I thought you meant THIS Saturday.

My mistake; I meant to say that the GFS has the low forming this weekend, meandering around the Caribbean and impacting Florida next weekend as a hurricane (9-10 October), which is what the GFS has been depicting over the past few runs

Sorry for the confusion

Thankful for the blocking front! Weather is gorgeous - done with the tropical season here, thankfully. My best to anyone still affected.