Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean

[dwsqos2]

There wasn't much on the 0Z gfs through hour 144. This season is borderline hysterical. The two periods, a portion of July and now, during which the basin experienced the best tropical forcing may go down in hurricane history as producing nothing horribly significant. However, during a pretty significant subsidence wave, we ended up with a major hurricane (Karl). Heh.

[GCANE]

I am wondering as TD16 weakens over Cuba & S FL that the MIMIC-TPW convergence may get redirected back south to under the deep convection.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

Nice anti-cyclone down there, plenty of overshooting tops, and a big area of deep convection topping out 55 to 60K-ft.

[GCANE]

Genesis in 72 hrs for both CMC and GFS

[otowntiger]

Are the models just showing a basic repeat of #16 as far as track and intensity? Earlier I know they were showing some pretty significant development and at least one strong storm during the last week or two that would slam the Florida penninsula, but have they all backed off of the apocalyptic prognostications?

[Aquawind]

The pressures are so low down there the models have no clue what spot to start.. In that general 500 mile area something will happen..lol

[ConvergenceZone]

Are the models just showing a basic repeat of #16 as far as track and intensity? Earlier I know they were showing some pretty significant development and at least one strong storm during the last week or two that would slam the Florida penninsula, but have they all backed off of the apocalyptic prognostications?

I know what you mean otowntiger *Yawn*

While I'm happy that the US isn't having to deal with any majors so far this yer, the systems that do get going near the U.S. have been some of the most boring to track in recent memory...I enjoyed tracking Ivan, that was fun... But a string of waves that originally look like they are going to develop and then struggle to even make it to depression status are getting tiresome to say the least...

[otowntiger]

Are the models just showing a basic repeat of #16 as far as track and intensity? Earlier I know they were showing some pretty significant development and at least one strong storm during the last week or two that would slam the Florida penninsula, but have they all backed off of the apocalyptic prognostications?

I know what you mean otowntiger *Yawn*

While I'm happy that the US isn't having to deal with any majors so far this yer, the systems that do get going near the U.S. have been some of the most boring to track in recent memory...I enjoyed tracking Ivan, that was fun... But a string of waves that originally look like they are going to develop and then struggle to even make it to depression status are getting tiresome to say the least...

yep, 'yawn' is right. I guess I'm as guilty as anybody buying into all the hype on this site about long range model after model depicting something dangerous and imenent (within 2 weeks or so) significantly affecting our weather. The long range models are truly just for pure entertainment like they say. It was just the extreme consistancy of some of them that piqued my interest. They were onto something as far as tropical development but in what form they were sorely mistaken, that is up until about 3-4 days out. Of course we all know and its well documented that we don't have the technology to predict intensity yet.

[HURAKAN]

Computer models should not be used to forecast intensity. Learn that.

[otowntiger]

Computer models should not be used to forecast intensity. Learn that.

Thanks. I've known that for a long time. Read the last line of my post: "Of course we all know and its well documented that we don't have the technology to predict intensity yet."

[Macrocane]

I know the global models are not good for intensity but what about HWRF, GFDL and SHIPS?

[HURAKAN]

Computer models should not be used to forecast intensity. Learn that.

Thanks. I've known that for a long time. Read the last line of my post: "Of course we all know and its well documented that we don't have the technology to predict intensity yet."

I don't like when people in this board say that we hype anything. Maybe the amateurs try to hype stuff once in a while but it's unusual for the seasoned members and especially, the pro-Mets, to hype anything. If you go to an open forum, the last thing you should take very serious are opinions from amateurs.

Also, even when there's a consensus, nothing is set in stone.

[SouthFloridawx]

Sweet... there is a thread for the convection south of Nicole.

[ConvergenceZone]

Computer models should not be used to forecast intensity. Learn that.

Thanks. I've known that for a long time. Read the last line of my post: "Of course we all know and its well documented that we don't have the technology to predict intensity yet."

I don't like when people in this board say that we hype anything. Maybe the amateurs try to hype stuff once in a while but it's unusual for the seasoned members and especially, the pro-Mets, to hype anything. If you go to an open forum, the last thing you should take very serious are opinions from amateurs.

Also, even when there's a consensus, nothing is set in stone.

HURAKAN, it's not posters that are over-hyping it, it's the models that are over-hyping it...

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, it's not posters that are over-hyping it, it's the models that are over-hyping it...

But that's normal. I usually (99.9%) don't take the intensity forecast too much into consideration.

[HURAKAN]

GFDL takes Matthew's remnants or remnant vorticity and develops it in the Caribbean

[HURAKAN]

GFS has this system near Jamaica in 102 hours

[GCANE]

I know the global models are not good for intensity but what about HWRF, GFDL and SHIPS?

Hoping to improve

[HURAKAN]

HPC Day 7



They develop another low in 4 days and move it north

[FireRat]

This year despite having been quite active has been exceptionally fortunate with few disasters, all of which affected Central America rather slightly. So far so good, and as far as the season to date with big impacts to the States, I think this smiley sums it up: " "

Will we see a " "



That is the question. Maybe October 8th-November 25th once we get the Carib Patrol going. Otherwise we WILL have totally lucked out!

[fci]

Thanks. I've known that for a long time. Read the last line of my post: "Of course we all know and its well documented that we don't have the technology to predict intensity yet."

I don't like when people in this board say that we hype anything. Maybe the amateurs try to hype stuff once in a while but it's unusual for the seasoned members and especially, the pro-Mets, to hype anything. If you go to an open forum, the last thing you should take very serious are opinions from amateurs.

Also, even when there's a consensus, nothing is set in stone.

HURAKAN, it's not posters that are over-hyping it, it's the models that are over-hyping it...

Huh.
How does one program a model to "overhype"???