Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean

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FireRat
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#61 Postby FireRat » Wed Sep 29, 2010 1:10 pm

Intensity forecasting is like throwing darts into a target, blindfolded. The models simply serve to give a general idea that something may or may not form in a place around a given date...usually less than 10 days out.

The models then can go crazy with whatever they form as they do need to modulate the strengths of all the high and low pressures around, including the "storm" to put out a track. This is where they normally "hype" as they show something too powerful, remember it's not very common to see a hurricane on any given date. It may take 10 September 29ths that will pass before we do have a big one hitting someone on this day, yet the month as a whole is the peak month for hurricanes and the models tend to latch onto that and make most of their creations significant around this time of year.

I have seen numerous times intensity forecasts being way off, we just do not have the technology and probably never will. The best we can do is predict tracks with great accuracy and that's where the weather guys get a pat in the back.
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Re:

#62 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 29, 2010 1:40 pm

FireRat wrote:Intensity forecasting is like throwing darts into a target, blindfolded. The models simply serve to give a general idea that something may or may not form in a place around a given date...usually less than 10 days out.

The models then can go crazy with whatever they form as they do need to modulate the strengths of all the high and low pressures around, including the "storm" to put out a track. This is where they normally "hype" as they show something too powerful, remember it's not very common to see a hurricane on any given date. It may take 10 September 29ths that will pass before we do have a big one hitting someone on this day, yet the month as a whole is the peak month for hurricanes and the models tend to latch onto that and make most of their creations significant around this time of year.

I have seen numerous times intensity forecasts being way off, we just do not have the technology and probably never will. The best we can do is predict tracks with great accuracy and that's where the weather guys get a pat in the back.


For sure, that they definitely do well!
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#63 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 29, 2010 2:13 pm

FireRat wrote:... I have seen numerous times intensity forecasts being way off, we just do not have the technology and probably never will ...
Do you really believe that we will probably never have such technology? With technology progressing at its present rate, we should never say never.

Using Google Earth, I recently saw my a photo of my house and could make out the solar water heater on the roof among other things. That picture was taken from a satellite. Not that many years ago such marvels would've sounded like pure science fiction.
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Re: Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean

#64 Postby FireRat » Wed Sep 29, 2010 2:39 pm

Hello abajan,

It will take many years to understand better the science of intensity forecasting that will allow us to improve IMO. I see this as a man VS nature scenario where nature ultimately wins and we'll only probably get 50% of far-out future storms' intensity right. There are too many factors, some that we may not even see with the naked eye that affect these things. For now we just know water temps and light shear as some factors affecting storm intensity. Nature itself might have a secret code we'll never know to fully figuring out these natural wonders.

This stuff is what makes meteorology so exciting as it isn't easy stuff to predict and will forever be a lively field where we will always be students of the weather. :wink:
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#65 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 29, 2010 4:08 pm

Sooo with the Florida forecast currently to dry out after "Nichole" and a still unsettled Carribbean. Will the ridge build back and give the GOM another threat soon or is the next system going NE?
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#66 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 29, 2010 4:13 pm

Aquawind wrote:Sooo with the Florida forecast currently to dry out after "Nichole" and a still unsettled Carribbean. Will the ridge build back and give the GOM another threat soon or is the next system going NE?


Check HPC

Link - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

Another front coming
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#67 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 29, 2010 4:19 pm

YAY Fropa!!!! Sweet Delicious cool n dry air! Well I can dream so at least for now.. 8-)
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Re: Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean

#68 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:17 pm

Not quiet dry here in Hollywood/Ft. lauderdale yet. Still hanging on to the moisture. But per wv/loop the dry air is coming. As per aquawind on "whats left down in the Carribean". Good question. Models are popping and unpopping lows. Definitely something to watch next week.
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#69 Postby SootyTern » Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:30 pm

(quote)IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LARGE RIDGE REPLACING THE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST WITH SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEY DO HOWEVER KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AS RIDGE BUILDS. (quote)

from NWS Miami. Although the HPC 7 day loop of surface level pressures shows something like 3 fronts going down FL in the next week. :D
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#70 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:33 pm

SootyTern wrote:(quote)IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LARGE RIDGE REPLACING THE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST WITH SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEY DO HOWEVER KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AS RIDGE BUILDS. (quote)

from NWS Miami. Although the HPC 7 day loop of surface level pressures shows something like 3 fronts going down FL in the next week. :D

That's from the Miami NWS? Some sort of? If it's in the Central Caribbean. Wouldn't that be about a week away?
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#71 Postby SootyTern » Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:40 pm

Yeah, next week. Interesting that they mention it at all.
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Re: Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean

#72 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Sep 29, 2010 8:02 pm

NWS Jacksonville-"NORTHEAST SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE BAHAMAS." (I dont know what system they are referring to)

NWS Key West- "MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING NORTHWEST. THIS IS TYPICAL OF EARLY OCTOBER...SO WILL
OBVIOUSLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS THIS BECOMES CLOSER IN
TIME."

NWS Melbourne- "ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT WRT HOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIB WILL EVOLVE..."

NWS Tampa- Only NWS on the Peninsula that didn't mention the Caribbean. They tend to wait longer to mention Anything Tropical/Lows.
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#73 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 29, 2010 8:52 pm

Looks like models that develop a low in the nw Carib move it ne over east-central Cuba and into the Bahamas. Then ridging builds in and pushes it back west but it weakens due to strong NNE shear from the strong ridge. That's a very November-like situation not late September.
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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 30, 2010 2:03 pm

Image

HPC 3-7 days
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#75 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 30, 2010 2:05 pm

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NAM

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GFS
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Re: Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean / Bahamas

#76 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 30, 2010 2:15 pm

Better look at the Euro 240 hour in the SW Caribbean. :wink:
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Re: Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean / Bahamas

#77 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2010 6:50 pm

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

Image
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#78 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 30, 2010 8:21 pm

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GFS
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#79 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 30, 2010 8:33 pm

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UKM
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Re: Yet another storm to form in the NW Caribbean - Code Yellow

#80 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:46 am

Interesting area north of Honduras.

Image
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