How many systems will form during the rest of the season?

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How many named systems will form during the rest of the season?

Poll ended at Sun Oct 03, 2010 4:13 pm

One
2
4%
Two
5
10%
Three
8
16%
Four
16
32%
Five
10
20%
Six
4
8%
Seven or higher
3
6%
None will form
2
4%
 
Total votes: 50

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cycloneye
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Re:

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:50 am

abajan wrote:Four more to make a total of eighteen — just like the Klotzbach/Gray team predicted on June 2nd. And with La Niña as strong as it is, I’m still expecting at least one of the four to occur in December. (Oops, my math got screwed up and I mistakenly voted five in error.)



Oh boy,your vote can't be changed now,but anyway, you participated in the poll.
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Re: How many systems will form during the rest of the season?

#22 Postby wzrgirl1 » Thu Sep 30, 2010 12:03 pm

I voted five for a total of 19. That is what I predicted before the start of the season. :lol:
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#23 Postby FireRat » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:38 am

So basing it on what I see everyone posting, we'll likely see a Shary, funny cuz that rhymes with scary :lol:
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#24 Postby cyclonic chronic » Fri Oct 01, 2010 6:24 am

4 including a weak t.s. hitting s. fl. in dec. :wink:
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Re: How many systems will form during the rest of the season?

#25 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 01, 2010 10:13 am

I said 2, there's not too much model support of anything really developing anytime soon. As we move further into October, conditions become increasingly unfavorable for development. The Caribbean low pressures and gyre does not seem capable of producing too much because it's not what we normally see in the Caribbean/Atlantic.

Of those 2, I see one becoming a hurricane, maybe even a major late this month. I can't rule out the possibility of a Wilma like powerhouse of a storm developing given the high ocean heat content that still exists in the Caribbean. So far the rest of the season, I see 1 storm in October and 1 in November. There may be an additional subtropical storm that forms this month so there could easily be up to 4 total system for the rest of the season, 2 tropical, 2 subtropical.

The final result should be 16/8/5 which is well above average and a pretty good season considering it didn't really get going until the 2nd half of August.
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Re: How many systems will form during the rest of the season?

#26 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2010 9:36 pm

All options have gotten votes. Those who still have not voted, come and do so before the poll closes at 5:13 PM EDT on Sunday.
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#27 Postby HurrMark » Fri Oct 01, 2010 9:47 pm

Just a guess, I think we will see three storms this month...two of them hurricanes. There might be a Caribbean threat, but I would think that things should stay east of the US. Maybe another storm in November.

So 4/2/1 is my guess.
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Re: How many systems will form during the rest of the season?

#28 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Oct 03, 2010 8:43 pm

I wonder how many more storms will form in the EPAC?
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Re: How many systems will form during the rest of the season?

#29 Postby Category 5 » Mon Oct 04, 2010 8:26 am

Somewhere between zero and infinity.
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Re: How many systems will form during the rest of the season?

#30 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Oct 04, 2010 10:08 am

HurricaneBill wrote:I wonder how many more storms will form in the EPAC?


Honestly, looking at the MJO forecasts from the CFS, GFS, and GFS Ensembles, there is a decent chance that Georgette was the last storm of 2010 for the EPAC.
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