ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave

[Vortex]

no doubt this is a TD...

[expat2carib]

I can't "read" this system.

Two cells firing. The most active far away from the LLC.....

[SouthDadeFish]

Is the center in that hollow circle in that last microwave pass?

[Vortex]

I won't be surprised if the 2am TWO reads something like..."Satellite images and surface reports indicate that the low pressure area to the east of nicaragua has continued to become beter organized and a tropical depression may be forming...If this trend continues advisories will be initiated later today".. I'm going with 80% 2am

[SouthDadeFish]

Very possible vortex, but were still 4 hours out from that time. From my observations, we're about to see another convective burst just to the SW of the current one.

[expat2carib]

Look at the cell south of Jamaica. on this picture GCANE posted.

How can this happen soo far away from the LLC?

[Vortex]

Another convective burst starting with the 115Z image on the southern portion of the complex around 12.9/81.2

[cycloneye]

[Vortex]

Outflow channels continue to improve and look good on the N/W/SW sides of the envelope..E/SE side need abit more work but it appears an anti-cyclone is building overhead...

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks like it will miss Nicaragua and Honduras. If we get a tropical system to sit around the Caribbean (especially in the NW Caribbean) we could have another major on our hands sometime this week.

[gatorcane]

Well looking at the western Caribbean tonight boy has moisture increased. Those that have packed their bags for the seasion, especially those in Florida, may want to stay a while. This season is far from over.

[psyclone]

we're seeing the cocoon of favorability that often exists over that portion of the basin into november. i suspect the lack of florida posters logged in at the moment is an indication that many of them have switched to a "show me the money" sentiment which is certainly understandable in light of what has (or has not) happened this season. it remains insanely dry over fl down into the northwestern caribbean.

[gatorcane]

we're seeing the cocoon of favorability that often exists over that portion of the basin into november. i suspect the lack of florida posters logged in at the moment is an indication that many of them have switched to a "show me the money" sentiment which is certainly understandable in light of what has (or has not) happened this season. it remains insanely dry over fl down into the northwestern caribbean.

Problem is the models can be wrong the other way also. That is they may not show development but it develops

[psyclone]

i suspect this will get a name and i wouldn't be surprised if it became a hurricane... but the board might not be hopping unless it looks like it could threaten fl and that's a long way off if ever. this is cool to watch evolve though... looks like a classic late season storm we would expect to see.

[LarryWx]

Going back to 1851, I counted 13 (20%) of the 64 TC's that formed in the W. Caribbean (west of 75W) and were there during mid to late Oct. that had a track that ended in either MX or Central America:

They occurred during these seasons: 1890, 1908, 1922, 1935, 1940, 1943, 1961, 1969, 1977, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2005

Most of the remainder either hit the U.S. or missed the U.S. to the east or south. A few others died in the G.O.M., Caribbean., or on one of the Greater Antilles. A large majority of those that crossed the W. 1/3 of Cuba or the Yucatan channel ended up hitting the U.S. Some of the ones that crossed the Yucatan also later hit the U.S.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

It looks very impressive

[wxman57]

A little climo. Below is a plot of all storms passing within 75nm (85mi) of 98L in October and November since 1851. Looks like 8 hit Florida. None from TX to AL. And with a 60-90 kt westerly jet across the central to northern Gulf for the next few weeks, this one won't go toward the northern Gulf Coast. May well track a little NW-N then turn sharply NE (if it doesn't just drift around and move into CA).

[cycloneye]

FZNT26 KNHC 100243
OFFN05
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010

...PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AVAILABLE
THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR A MORE DETAILED
FORECAST WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COASTLINE...

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13.5N81W WILL MOVE TO NEAR
14N83W SUN NIGHT...NEAR 15N86W MON NIGHT...AND NEAR 16N88W TUE
NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA TO THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOW PRES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFN05.shtml

[cycloneye]