ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[KWT]

The 18z GFDL, if it verifies, would necessitate hurricane warnings in the Florida Keys by this time tommorrow as the model shows Paula just south of Key West as a 100 mph storm at 78 hours or very early Friday morning. An interesting scenario for the NHC. Are they buying into this solution? Not much time to decide.

Well its close to the 18z GFS solution which is alot faster then even similar runs like the Nogaps, I'd be frankly a little surprised if it moved quite that quickly but the 00z runs will confirm whether or not the 18z GFDL has a decent solution...its certainly in the ballpark of what is possible fwiw.

[gatorcane]

The 18z GFDL, if it verifies, would necessitate hurricane warnings in the Florida Keys by this time tommorrow as the model shows Paula just south of Key West as a 100 mph storm at 78 hours or very early Friday morning. An interesting scenario for the NHC. Are they buying into this solution? Not much time to decide.

The nhc does like the gfdl so we will see......

[Evil Jeremy]

The local radio met said, in the same vein as the newspaper, that the storm will likely weaken during days 4 and 5 and move n/nw as a sheared storm, so there are no worries now. What did the new GFDL show?

Don't put all your eggs in one basket, especially when its local media, which has been known to mess info up. South Florida needs to keep a big eye on this system. There are no worries yet, but don't let your guard down at all.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

An interesting thing about the 18z GFDL is that it shows no strengthening until the northern yucatan where it then increases in strength. Seems to indicate conditions might not be that bad up there at that time.

[gatorcane]

Someone mentioned the 1924 Cuba/south Florida hurricane as an analog. I think you can throw Wilma out there as an analog as well

[KWT]

CBS, looks like the jet and the shear to the north actually helps the system out, ala Wilma on the 18z GFDL...

Without a doubt S.Florida and the Keys need to keep a very close eye on this system, this is prime time for that part of the basin!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 18, 2010101200, , BEST, 0, 165N, 844W, 55, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The 18z GFDL, if it verifies, would necessitate hurricane warnings in the Florida Keys by this time tommorrow as the model shows Paula just south of Key West as a 100 mph storm at 78 hours or very early Friday morning. An interesting scenario for the NHC. Are they buying into this solution? Not much time to decide.

The nhc does like the gfdl so we will see......

I'm sure they will wait for consensus from other models but this was the first model run that accuratly depicted, strength wise, what is happening with Paula. Seems to me that the stronger the storm the better chance it will follow the predicted strong ENE mid and upper level flow.

[wzrgirl1]

Someone mentioned the 1924 Cuba/south Florida hurricane as an analog. I think you can throw Wilma out there as an analog as well

Gator I am with you on that one. Very wilmaesque set up except a week earlier.

[Aquawind]

Ugh..back to the dreadful analogies. Paula is unique and certainly will continue to be from the looks of that forecast.. Cuba, Belize, Caymans, and Mexico look to be the real concerns at this point. Patience grasshoppers plenty of time for Florida concern.

[floridastorm88]

high pressure was suppose to be helping steer storms away from us i thought? Please explain why we should worry in fla? what happened to shear rippin the system apart? im starting to worryn we have been so lucky..

[abajan]

There are many variables to consider. If Paula intensifies into a powerful hurricane and just drifts aimlessly in the Gulf of Honduras, her own upwelling will arrest further development and cause her to weaken somewhat. However, all residents in her potential path need to keep monitoring latest developments.

[sunnyday]

I don't understand all of the models, obviously, although I try. What day is Paula supposed to be the 90-100 mph storm near the Keys? Thank you for your answer.

[SouthFloridawx]

Very cold cloud tops.

[KWT]

That could happen Abajan but personally I suspect it will lift out of the Caribbean before that point arrives anyway.

I suspect the NHC forecast shifts well NE next forecast given the consensus model now lies in a similar but slower position to the 18z GFDL...either way Florida needs keep a very close eye on this system, as does the YUcatan and Cuba and probably the Bahamas as well...

[Vortex]

This image was taken about 15 minutes ago...Paula continues to tighten and strengthen. A ring of -85C+ convection continues to form around the center...I have little doubt Paula is on her way to becoming a hurricane in the next 6-12 hours..If these trends continue Paula may undergo RI within the next 6-12 hours...

[sunnyday]

Florida doesn't want Paula.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I don't understand all of the models, obviously, although I try. What day is Paula supposed to be the 90-100 mph storm near the Keys? Thank you for your answer.

The 18z GFDL now shows the storm in that position at 78 hours or early friday morning.

[sunnyday]

Now I am confused. I've been reading about Paula's stalling, and now it's too close for comfort. Are both scenarios still considered a possibility?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

That could happen Abajan but personally I suspect it will lift out of the Caribbean before that point arrives anyway.

I suspect the NHC forecast shifts well NE next forecast given the consensus model now lies in a similar but slower position to the 18z GFDL...either way Florida needs keep a very close eye on this system, as does the YUcatan and Cuba and probably the Bahamas as well...

Add the BAMD to the list that show a faster path with Paula near the keys at 72 hours. I think that's valid if the system does get picked up as the front that will do it is progged to pass through early friday. Also the 18z GFS showed Paula at the western tip of Cuba at 48 hours. I think the GFDL is spot on with it's timing if Paula indeed does get lifted out of the Caribbeam