ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Watching this one with very keen interest...00z models are going to change alot of minds in South Florida I bet.

[cycloneye]

I will stay up until the recons first pass to see how the pressure has dropped as well of course, how strong the winds are at that time. Who else is going to stay up?

[Weatherfreak000]

If that isn't a cat 1 hurricane what is!

I am really shocked by that appearance...was she a TS for a significant amount of time before the NHC named it? I would really appreciate a pro met come answer my inquiry on this. I can't help but be interested due to the elongation of the vorticity making it such a close call but the NHC keeping percentages so low.

[SouthDadeFish]

If this becomes a hurricane at 11pm that has to be the quickest first advisory to hurricane time ever. Only 6 hours!!

[SouthDadeFish]

I will stay up until the recons first pass to see how the pressure has dropped as well of course, how strong the winds are at that time. Who else is going to stay up?

I'm debating skipping my 8am class tomorrow so I can stay up

[brunota2003]

I will stay up until the recons first pass to see how the pressure has dropped as well of course, how strong the winds are at that time. Who else is going to stay up?

Ohhh...very tempted, I want to badly...but at the same time I shouldn't because of work in the morning

[CrazyC83]

If this becomes a hurricane at 11pm that has to be the quickest first advisory to hurricane time ever. Only 6 hours!!

There have been a couple storms (at least one I know of, Noel in 2001) initialized as a hurricane, but that was because they already had hurricane winds but went from extratropical to tropical. Totally different situation.

[lester]

I will stay up until the recons first pass to see how the pressure has dropped as well of course, how strong the winds are at that time. Who else is going to stay up?

I'm staying up as well

[jlauderdal]

I will stay up until the recons first pass to see how the pressure has dropped as well of course, how strong the winds are at that time. Who else is going to stay up?

I'm debating skipping my 8am class tomorrow so I can stay up

debate over, skip it...plenty of classes to attend, limited hurricanes to watch

[SouthDadeFish]

Uhoh:

[HURAKAN]

very exclusive P Club

[MGC]

Sure looks like an eye forming on that microwave image....we shall see. Some light shear out of the east restricting outflow in the eastern quad, other than that looks pretty good.....MGC

[SouthDadeFish]

Eye not as apparent here:

[DESTRUCTION5]

Its got the fist look......RI is underway....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Edited by Ivanhater to include disclaimer.

[Nimbus]

I'll check it in the morning. Could get interesting in south Florida if it tracks through the Yucatan channel. Looks too similar to the 1924 Cuba hurricane to ignore. That was the first Cat 5 storm ever recorded and it was a real duzzy.

[ftolmsteen]

My eyes appear to be decieving me a little. Is the last couple of frames showing a wobble to the NE?

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest ir loops, shear across the se gom and southern Florida doesn't look all that bad. You can tell by how the outflow of Paula is fanning out over the fl straits rather than racing off to the east.

As I have said previously, I wouldn't trust the shear forecasts from the models in the long-range and this is why.

[Macrocane]

I can't stop thinking about Hattie, Mitch and Wilma all of them occured in October and reached category 5 intensity in the northwestern Caribbean, track-wise they may be very different but they're similar in time and position.

[sunnyday]

I would love to stay up, but two things are true. I will have a room full of students waiting for me first thing in the a.m. Strangely, though, is that the more I watch a storm, the less chance it will develop (judging from the past). When I go on about my daily schedule, it tends to ramp up. Go figure......lol
Seriously, I feel kind of sick when I read about that cat 5 that hit Cuba years ago. I just can't see that happening this time, and for no good reason. Just a strong feeling that Fl will dodge the bullet once again...

This is not a forecast of any kind--just the opinion of a very tired teacher at the end of a long day.

[HURAKAN]

Latest - very impressive