ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Aquawind]

Looking at the latest ir loops, shear across the se gom and southern Florida doesn't look all that bad. You can tell by how the outflow of Paula is fanning out over the fl straits rather than racing off to the east.

As I have said previously, I wouldn't trust the shear forecasts from the models in the long-range and this is why.

I hear ya.. I have posted this WV since we got the first fropa in the Fl weather thread and you can see this is pushing up into the dry air.. How far north it gets is yet to be seen but, it is clearly changing the enviroment to the north..

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm guessing the NHC will keep a similar type track at the 11pm for consistency and to prevent the windshield wiper effect. But if the models continue this trend by 5 am we will probably see a shift in the track.

[sunnyday]

A shift which way?

[Evil Jeremy]

A shift which way?

North, towards us. We might be in the cone by this time tomorrow. I actually think we will be.

Anyways, I will stay up for the first recon pass. Yea, I have school tomorrow but.... What can I say, nothing thrills me like recon data lol.

[SouthDadeFish]

A shift pointed more towards the Florida Straights is my thinking. Probably will lean towards a slower solution to balance out the scenarios.

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps it's me, but shear does not seem to be a problem tonight IMO over Paula...

[Macrocane]

According to the latest CIMSS analysis wind shear over the system is between 10 kt and 15 kt and the shear tendency is negative so conditions are going to be good tonight.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow... Still going...

[SouthDadeFish]

According to the latest CIMSS analysis wind shear over the system is between 10 kt and 15 kt and the shear tendency is negative so conditions are going to be good tonight.

Actually its less than 10 knots right over the center and to the SE. Quite favorable conditions.

[SouthFloridawx]

Clearly those cold cloud tops are over the center.

[floridastorm88]

wow! i dont think we gettin a major cane this late... comment please im prayin we dont we dont need it in fla for sure just a lil bit of rain thats it

[Ptarmigan]

From the latest satellite image of Paula, looks like it could undergo rapid intensification.

[apocalypt-flyer]

I'm still AGOG that people don't expect majors from early July until late October or even November, given the last decade. Were people asleep during, say Wilma, Omar, Michelle or, lest we forget him, bonkers old Lenny?

Now I'm not necessarily saying this will be a major but there's a very good reason every season lasts officially all the way through November.

[floridastorm88]

not forgetting just hopin n prayin i really dont think it will be major they have blew alot of storms
up and nothing has happened

[Florida1118]

wow! i dont think we gettin a major cane this late... comment please im prayin we dont we dont need it in fla for sure just a lil bit of rain thats it

What makes yo think a major cant be born? With a low confidence forecast, dont be so sure.... And wow took me about 25mins to read all the pages from when I left the board 18hrs. ago.

[psyclone]

Paula looks great. i can't wait to see what the nhc does at 11. the 5 pm call looked a bit indecisive.

[wxman57]

Paula looks like it could be a hurricane. NHC will wait for confirmation from recon before upgrading. I'm not sure if it'll be trapped in the Caribbean for a week or more or if it'll be picked up by the approaching trof and accelerated across Cuba and the Bahamas by Wed/Thu. NHC's 3Z track is in between these two possibilities now, taking it to near the Isle of Pines in 5 days. They weaken it to a 45 kt TS by then, though. Not sure about that.

[brunota2003]

They held it to 60 knots (70 mph).

[Evil Jeremy]

According to Wunderground's graphics, extreme SW FL is now in the cone.

[cycloneye]