ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[psyclone]

winds in key west are calm right now so thus far those that downplayed this threat have been correct. the keys are on the edge of some heavy rain though. i wish we could get some of that up here but instead we have an increasing fire danger as another front moves in.

[KWT]

Recon found a 65 knot SFMR report just now.

I don't see it, but I do notice that SFMR readings are now as much as twice as high as FL winds, and many are flagged. Pressure is up to 1007mb, too. Paula isn't a hurricane now.

I agree, I personally think even 60kts is quite high for this system right now but the surface estimates are quite high still so I can understand them holding it at 60kts for now.

[HURAKAN]

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[fci]

I wasn't referencing you WXMAN57, you did a great job forecasting this well in advance. Yes, it is a relative term. Not a very big storm so not much impact. It was a couple of absolute terms thrown out by amateurs that it wouldn't impact Florida. You can not say that when it is within the margin of error, especially important with the bigger storms.

You are probably referring to me in your post.
My comments were not "me" trying to be a forecaster so I could come back and tell everyone "I told you so" like so many seem apt to do.
I was responding to the "threat" and "trouble" for South Florida comments that were flourishing on the board in spite of the NHC forecast and those forecasts from wxman57 and AJC3 that spoke of the screaming shear north of Cuba.

Plus, it all goes to what someone deems "impact" to be.
Wxman57 has again said what the effects on Key West might be and they are nothing more than what afternoon thunderstorms might bring.
The NHC discussion yesterday even joked that there was a Hurricane near Cuba yet no one really can tell.
So, understand that I was trying to help bring "reality" to the board and to counter the doomsday type of posts that were proliferating on the board.
I was echoing and repeating what the experts were saying as others parsed little things from the track to presume some kind of a meaningful "threat" or "trouble" for South Florida that did not exist.

[caneman]

I meant no harm to anyone by my comments, other than reminding folks that the Keys are about 60 miles away which is within the margin or error which isn't a problem for this tiny storm but could be for a bigger/stronger storm.

[Shuriken]

In all the records, has there ever been a case of a tropical system dissipating in the northwest Caribbean over water in mid-October?

[jinftl]

Do you mean weakening over the water....technically, it doesn't look like Paula will dissipate to a remnant low until over cuba.

In all the records, has there ever been a case of a tropical system dissipating in the northwest Caribbean over water in mid-October?

[Shuriken]

From the look of current satellite and radar, it appears that Paula is transforming from a compact, intense hurricane to a less intense but larger sub-tropical hybrid system.

[Ntxw]

From the look of current satellite and radar, it appears that Paula is transforming from a compact, intense hurricane to a less intense but larger sub-tropical hybrid system.

It doesn't look any larger to me. Seems like shear continues to blast cloud tops northeast but those aren't generating much until you get to the keys south. The core does have more precip from what I can see but that's typical for any tropical entity tapping moisture and opening up. Appears like a heavy rain event there.

Even the non-system stuff down in the southern Caribbean looks way more impressive.

[HURAKAN]

Comet Paula

[jinftl]

Looks like Paula made landfall as a tropical storm in cuba...

...CENTER OF PAULA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA ON THE NORTH COAST OF PINAR
DEL RIO PROVINCE CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 83.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUERTO ESPERANZA CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA

[HURAKAN]

14/1745 UTC 22.9N 83.4W OVERLAND PAULA

Landfall says Dvorak

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

AL, 18, 2010101418, , BEST, 0, 228N, 832W, 50, 1002, TS

down to 60 mph

[Shuriken]

The core does have more precip from what I can see but that's typical for any tropical entity tapping moisture and opening up. Appears like a heavy rain event there.

An increase in precipitation correlates to an increase in convection which correlates to increasing evacuation of surface air to high-altitude. In other words, a maintaining or even enlarging low system (even if the strongest winds are backing down).

Paula won't dissipate until her convection is stripped -- and a southward-moving closed low in the northwestern Caribbean is a dangerous thing.

[dwsqos2]

Just a bland comment, but the 1007 mb pressure came from a sonde that recorded a surface wind greater than 50 knots. Paula was vertically tilted then and is vertically tilted now, so a sonde dropped at the 700 mb center won't record the minimum pressure.

[Ntxw]

Paula won't dissipate until her convection is stripped -- and a southward-moving closed low in the northwestern Caribbean is a dangerous thing.

As long as she stays north of Cuba, no chance really. If she makes it into the Caribbean and stays there, she can but even then her odds aren't very good from what the pattern says. We saw it with her in the western Caribbean and strengthen, then moved north and got blasted. Doesn't look to change as of now.

[fci]

She is going to be just a remant low if she gets out of the Cuba to the south.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

strong burst