Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was the wettest day of October in San Salvador, some rainfall amounts:

Santa Ana 5.6 mm/0.22 inches
San Salvador 25 mm/0.98 inches
Perquin 49.7 mm/1.96 inches
Santiago de Maria 20 mm/0.79 inches

[Macrocane]

2010 the wettest year on record in El Salvador

The SNET (met service) in El Salvador released a report this week with the accumulated rainfall between January 1 and September 30 and is impressive how much rain we've had this year wich is already the wettest year in El Salvador since reliable records began (1970). The station with the highest amount is Los Naranjos that in a normal year would have received 1875 mm (73.81 inches) of rain and this year has registered 3445 mm (135.6 inches) that's the highest rainfall ever measured in the country. The amounts in other stations (aproximations):

Santa Ana
normal: 1500 mm/59 inches 2010: 2000 mm/78.7 inches
Acajutla
normal: 1500 mm/59 inches 2010: 2500 mm/98.4 inches
San Salvador
normal: 1500 mm/59 inches 2010: 2300 mm/90.6 inches
San Miguel
normal: 1250 mm/49.2 inches 2010: 1800 mm/70.9 inches
Perquin
normal: 2000 mm/78.7 inches 2010: 3250 mm/127.9 inches
La Union
normal: 1300 mm/51.2 inches 2010: 2800 mm/110.2 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE OCT 26 2010

.UPDATE...PATCHY MOISTURE CAUGHT IN A LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A
CONTINUED ENE LLVL WIND FLOW TO PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...RESULTING IN A ESE WIND FLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE RETURN TO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT
AND IN LINE WITH LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE AND THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHWRS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT LEEWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. MOST TOPS IN THE
LOCAL AREA WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KFT. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE BEYOND 27/22Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND TKPK DUE TO CIGS. LLVL WINDS ENE UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFT 27/17Z MVFR EXPECTED OVR SW PR IN SHWRS
AND ISOLD TSRA INCLUDING TJMZ.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More moisture for the Eastern Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED OCT 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT SURFACE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC SHIFTS WESTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AND SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40 WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FREQUENT PATCHES OF MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE
CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY... BY WHICH TIME AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST NORTH ISLANDS...RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO AN EAST SOUTH
EAST WIND FLOW BY FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT...WILL BRING A
MARKED INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS BEGINNING THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 27/16Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND
TKPK. AFTER 27/17Z...EXPECT MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJPS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. TJSJ
27/00S SOUNDING INDICATED AND EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...UP TO 20
KNOTS...ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
NORTHERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
SEAS GENERALLY 6-8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH EAST NORTHEAST
WIND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SEVERAL MARINE ZONES DUE
TO GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

[cycloneye]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 AM AST WED OCT 27 2010

...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...

.MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND NEAR
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

AMZ710-715-722-725-732-741-272215-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-101029T1800Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
1012 AM AST WED OCT 27 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM AST FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM AST FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

Hey Eastern Caribbean friends. Look what we have,ESE of the Windwards,a strong wave,that may develop, so we will have to watch this in the next few days.

[Gustywind]

Hey Eastern Caribbean friends. Look what we have,ESE of the Windwards,a strong wave,that may develop, so we will have to watch this in the next few days.

Thanks LUIS, i noticied that this morning too! Very strong system let's begin to keep an eye on this one...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST WED OCT 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE GRADIENT TO
LOOSEN BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS SURFACE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
SHIFTS WESTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AND SINK SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT TO
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A CHANGE IN THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IN COMBINATION WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/TUTT...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION ON FRIDAY . THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHWRS EMBEDDED IN NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL 27/22Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ISOLD
TSRA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 75 86 / 50 60 30 50
STT 77 87 77 87 / 40 40 30 40

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO model develops 91L before it reaches the Windwards.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST WED OCT 27 2010

.UPDATE...COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS HAS INCREASED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MANY SHOWERS ARE STILL ABLE TO PUSH UP TO
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS EVENING IN MOIST FLOW STREAMING IN
FROM THE DIRECTION OF A LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 550 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THIS WILL KEEP BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MOVING
OVER MOST OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AND MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN WIND...POPS...SKY AND QPF GRIDS THROUGHOUT
FOR NEWEST MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ENE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER SCT SHRAS ACROSS
THE VI...TNCM...TKPK AND NORTHERN PR OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN VERY
BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND PREVAILING VFR CONDS
ACROSS TJPS AND TJMZ. AFT 28/16Z...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA FORMATION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TJPS AND TJMZ FROM 28/17Z-28/22Z...WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES IN ENE LLVL WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15
KTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Lets keep watching invest 91L. But plenty of showers will move thru the islands in the next few days as a trough combined with low pressure to our NE increase the moisture.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST THU OCT 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOME 600
MILES OR SO NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWED 35 TO 40 KNOT JET SEGMENT AT BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND SPIRALING WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS AND
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO LOOSEN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC LOCATED NEAR 46
WEST AND SOME 1100 MILES OR SO EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ENTER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FREQUENT PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND REACH THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD
TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PERSIST TROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. EXPECT
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN COMBINATION WITH THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW TO BRING A MARKED INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO
BRING ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND MERGES WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN COULD BRING FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE LOOKING FOR AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE VI...TNCM...TKPK AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE REST OF MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS TJPS
AND TJMZ. AFT 28/16Z...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA FORMATION ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY AT TJPS AND TJMZ FROM 28/17Z-28/22Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES IN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
OF 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 77 / 70 30 60 40
STT 87 76 86 78 / 60 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


From Crownweather Services.

I am closely following a fairly strong tropical disturbance which is located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Slow, but steady development is likely from this system, which is designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. This is the same feature that the model guidance have been developing into a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean. This morning’s global model guidance is no different and continues to forecast tropical cyclone development over the next few days. Current analysis of surface and upper air maps support the model forecasts as upper level conditions are expected to become favorable for development within the next couple of days or so.

Satellite loops this morning showed a system that is well-organized with notable low-level turning in the clouds. Based on the current state of this system and the forecast for favorable environmental conditions, I think this will be upgraded to a tropical depression by or before Saturday evening.

So, let’s take a look at both the global model guidance and the hurricane track model guidance from this morning:

The GFS operational model forecasts that this system will wait to develop into a tropical cyclone until it is in the southeast Caribbean on Sunday. After that, it forecasts this system to develop and intensify in the central Caribbean early next week and forecasts it to track across Hispaniola next Thursday. The GFS model then forecasts this system to become absorbed into a strong coastal storm tracking off of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines next Friday. It should be noted that the GFS ensemble guidance is much different than its operational counterpart and forecasts this system to not become entrained by the deep Eastern US trough, but instead forecasts a scenario that has it hanging around the western and central Caribbean for pretty much all of next week.

The European operational model forecasts this system to try and develop before getting into the Caribbean and forecasts a track that takes it over Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada during Saturday. After that, the European model forecasts this system to initially track west-northwestward to about 80 West Longitude in the Caribbean on Wednesday and forecasts a scenario that shows this system hanging around south of Jamaica through at least next Saturday.

The European ensemble guidance is trending towards a scenario that shows a ridge of high pressure hanging around longer causing this system to hang back in the western Caribbean and not be picked up by the Eastern US trough.

The Canadian model forecasts a scenario that shows development and intensification before it reaches the Windward Islands and takes it across the Windward Islands and just south of Barbados on Saturday. Once in the eastern Caribbean, the Canadian model forecasts this system to intensify into a fairly strong storm during Sunday and Monday and forecasts a track that would take it over Hispaniola on Tuesday night and over the southeastern Bahamas late Wednesday and Wednesday night and then out into the open Atlantic after that.

I do not believe the hurricane track models like the BAM models as it is forecasting a track that has it crashing into South America. The HWRF model, however, is a little more believable as it forecasts a west-northwest track over the next couple of days and forecasts this system to track right over Barbados late Saturday as a tropical storm and then right over Martinique as a upper end tropical storm early Sunday morning. After that, the HWRF model forecasts this system to slow way down in the eastern Caribbean and intensify, so that by late Monday night it is forecast to be located near 16 North Latitude, 65 West Longitude as a Category 2 hurricane.

So, this is what I’m thinking this morning: I think Invest 91-L will track westward over the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more to the west-northwest as it encounters a weakness in a ridge of high pressure. This should cause Invest 91-L to miss South America and instead track about halfway between Tabago and Barbados and then over St. Vincent during Saturday as perhaps a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm. After that, Invest 91-L is forecast to track into the eastern Caribbean late this weekend and then slowly track towards the central Caribbean early next week and be near 16 North Latitude, 69 West Longitude in 5 days from now or on Tuesday morning as a upper end Category 1 or low end Category 2 hurricane. After that, who knows as there is an equal chance of either this system being picked up by the East Coast trough or be left behind just south of Jamaica by later next week.

So, all interests in the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago and Barbados should closely monitor the progress of this system as Invest 91-L may be on your doorstep in just 48 hours as a tropical storm. In addition, all interests in the Caribbean, especially those in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic should keep close tabs on this system. I will be keeping a close eye on this potential and will keep you all updated.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 AM AST THU OCT 28 2010

.UPDATE....THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
THUS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BUT MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT IN GENERAL NO WIDESPREAD
PCPN IS EXPECTED. NO CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 28/17Z THROUGH ABOUT 28/22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

[msbee]

Oops!
Think it's time I head home from Grenada to St. Maarten!

[cycloneye]

The 12z Canadian model tracks 91L thru the Lesser Antilles as a Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12z HWRF continues to have a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 53 WEST WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST FOR TOO LONG. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AS A SERIES OF
WEATHER FEATURES INTERACTS TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THE FIRST ONE...IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA...IS ACQUIRING SOME
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC...AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH IS
WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN AFFECTING
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

MEANWHILE...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY...BUT WILL
LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH FORMS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION...A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 53 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ALL THESE SYSTEMS...PROMISE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE LONG TERM...LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD GET EVEN
MORE ACTIVE BY LATER NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TO PRODUCE VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM RANGE...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PROG SOUNDING INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHWRS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN PR AT LEAST UNTIL 28/22Z. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ISOLD TSRA
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS. SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS PR AND VI TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

[Macrocane]

Hey guys, I want to share with you this picture of one of the most dark and impressive skies I've seen over San Salvador, I took it a few minutes ago (sorry for the quality my cam is a little old):

[cycloneye]

That is a scary image there.