ATL : Ex SHARY - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Migle]

wow, a bunch of invest right now and this one looks pretty good. Any reason why 91L and 92L aren't on the map yet?

[cycloneye]

wow, a bunch of invest right now and this one looks pretty good. Any reason why 91L and 92L aren't on the map yet?

The graphic is slow,but eventually,both new invests will be there.

[Migle]

wow, a bunch of invest right now and this one looks pretty good. Any reason why 91L and 92L aren't on the map yet?

The graphic is slow,but eventually,both new invests will be there.

Yep, it's up there now.

[Florida1118]

Not too bad...(All these Invest are making me confuse the threads and satellite tabs up! )

[wxman57]

This invest has the best chance to develop over the next 2-3 days. Chances may be 60-70% over the next 2-3 days. Could be as early as tomorrow. I think the NHC will significantly increase their prediction of the probability that they're going to name this system in their tropical outlooks tonight/tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

I agree wxman57. Shary may not be too far away, IMO...

[Florida1118]

Up to 30%

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Weatherfreak000]

All three areas have good shots at developing IMO.

[Florida1118]

All three areas have good shots at developing IMO.

No doubt. Very busy days ahead....as we go into November.

[Weatherfreak000]

All three areas have good shots at developing IMO.

No doubt. Very busy days ahead....as we go into November.

Keep a watchful eye out there in Florida. The seasonal predictions of September acting like August, and October acting like September, etc, etc. are definitely coming true.



Take that logic and November can still be very busy for Florida, imo.

[Florida1118]

All three areas have good shots at developing IMO.

No doubt. Very busy days ahead....as we go into November.

Keep a watchful eye out there in Florida. The seasonal predictions of September acting like August, and October acting like September, etc, etc. are definitely coming true.



Take that logic and November can still be very busy for Florida, imo.

Of course we will. N GOM should too as in Ida from last year. 2 of the Invest are far out and not coming this way, and 91L is still a long way out so not worried about anything at this point. Climo. for November...



IMO, I dont think Climo helps right now.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC is keeping an eye on this system. I took this picture this afternoon

[wxman57]

With a quite strong cold front sweeping across the Gulf past Florida and into the NW Caribbean next week, Florida would make a hard target to hit. Jamaica to PR is the place to watch.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2010102800, , BEST, 0, 229N, 553W, 25, 1010, DB

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Patrick99]

All three areas have good shots at developing IMO.

No doubt. Very busy days ahead....as we go into November.

Keep a watchful eye out there in Florida. The seasonal predictions of September acting like August, and October acting like September, etc, etc. are definitely coming true.



Take that logic and November can still be very busy for Florida, imo.

I agree.......people like to take "climo" as a hard and fast rule, we always like to think some current storm will behave exactly the same as some historical storm did - but in reality, no two of these storms are the same. And October/November have a reputation for getting wild and crazy with the storm tracks.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Florida1118]

Up to 60%
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING WITHIN THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.