Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Rain rain and more rain this afternoon. Localized floodings has occured in somes areas! I'm suprised that our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe has not put even an yellow alert given the current situation No report of possible damages so that's good news.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Haiti prepares for a new test
France-French West Indies Guadeloupe 04.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 100230.php

The storm tropical Tomas pursues a road which would bring him this weekend on Haiti, where cholera epidemic extends...
Fatalist, Haiti is trying to prepare to welcome the storm tropical Tomas, crossing your fingers that the weather conditions do not here then lead to strengthening. In the State of extreme hardship which live hundreds of thousands of refugees, such as building would be catastrophic.
Civil protection officers were dispatched in camps to sensitize the evacuees living there since the earthquake of January 12, inviting them to evacuate.
President René Préval accompanies since Monday Director of emergency preparedness, Alta Jean-Baptiste in the regions of the South of the country to oversee the operations implemented by the civil protection. Resources were positioned in the island points which could be affected, while humanitarian organizations were back in place to deal with the passage of the storm.
The Government has asked the people living in the North and East of Haiti to take every precaution: Storm could accelerate the spread of the epidemic of cholera. Epidemic progresses at high speed: its balance sheet is now dead and 6 442 742 hospitalizations, i.e. an increase of 30% since Saturday.

Saint Lucia: FAA to the rescue
Meanwhile, Saint Lucia tries to heal his wounds. The official record is always 12 deaths. A thousand houses were severely damaged and agriculture is almost totally disaster. Since Monday, at the request of the Embassy France in Castries, the armed forces in the West Indies and civil security at work. West Indies (FAA) armed Forces Puma helicopter carried out many rotations between Martinique and St. Lucia.
Thirteen tons of water, food and materials have since forwarded to Fonds-Saint-Jacques, a neighbourhood on the heights of Soufriere Hills, where there are at least six dead and many missing persons.

[Gustywind]

Dive at Petit-Canal by a lion fish
France-French West Indies Guadeloupe 03.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 100087.php

Attention to the dorsal spines of the lion fish Intense pain in the fingers. Then in the whole hand. A pain that rises in the arm and leads to heart (palpitations). What are the symptoms described by Quilted Monday, Maurice/Petit-Canal Cove diving, underwater Hunter. He believed put his hand on a stone. But the stone began to move and has moved away. Is no doubt about the identity of her aggressor. It is a lion-fish or lionfish. He put an arrow and it brought it with him for emergencies. In any case, it has retained the lesson. The next time it will be attention to put his hand on stones...
The fisherman was out well when we know that, according to some scholars, a lion-fish bite evokes the bite of a cobra.... If its venom is not fatal, it causes a State of shock more or less important depending on the amount injected. The toe person may show different symptoms: great weakness, dizziness, nausea, fainting, hypothermia, fall of blood pressure... In this context, a swimmer or diver is out of the water more quickly. What to do in case of puncture? Before medical support, heat the toe area. With hot water or the tip of a cigarette for example.
If the Red lionfish enjoys in coral reefs and fate rather night can also cross edge of beach near the rocks and seagrass beds. So be careful. So after having invaded the Caribbean Sea, the first cousin of our local rascasses proliferates on our shores. It is capable of lay thousands of eggs every four days.
In addition to represent a hazard for man, lion fish is a glutton who threaten the marine ecosystem. Marine scientists fired the alarm early October. The goal: "Halting its proliferation to avoid any overpopulation." Skilled fighters were recruited.

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe
11/10/2010
By Catherine LE PELLETIER
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 37553.html

ENVIRONMENT. The lion fish, new danger on our coasts The lion fish appeared in the waters of the Caribbean. This fish bites, venomous and painful acclimated to the shores of Guadeloupe.

The lion fish spines are venomous, CLP, Secretary Scientists know well. Until a few years ago, he lived in the Earth, the waters of the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. But for an "accident", it has invaded the Caribbean Sea and is multiplied. It is poisonous and covers several names. It is called "red lionfish", "lion-fish", "Pterois volitans".

An unfortunate venom
Now, it is present on the shores of Guadeloupe. The lion fish is not fatal, but poisonous. Medical support is essential as the bite his venom may have quite severe consequences. The first signs are very alarming, more ominous than those usually seen in "fish 24 hours", which exists in the Caribbean Sea. Fish"24 hours", the bite causes pain that lasts for 24 hours, hence its name. The lion fish venom dissolves slowly in the body and can cause discomfort.

The fire Redeemer
Apparently, only the heat would have a positive effect on the venom. These are the Red lionfish spines contain this venom. The serious disturbances caused by the venom may however be weakened, if they are supported by a doctor quickly. The bite is very painful, swimmer's ear mandatory is aware of the presence of fish in water.

Thousands of eggs in a week
The "fish-lion" is capable of reproducing at a huge rate. By cycle 4 days, it can lay thousands of eggs. What differently populate the marine universe of our coasts, as him is known no predators. And this is where the shoe pinches: he fears no other fish. Only human, with ad hoc programme could come out! And yet!

Changing habitat
The lion fish usually inhabits coral reefs. But now, there are also on the surface and up to 150 m. A swimmer would have seen him in Pointe-Noire. But experts agree that today ' today, there are in the vicinity of the shores of Guadeloupe, where it is acclimated.

Public health problem
Because the lionfish has the particularity to reproduce very quickly and very easily, then its presence represents a real risk for public health. Scientists at the DIREN (Environment Division) and of the ESU (University of the West Indies and French Guiana) work together. It, as a first step, identify the information that everyone can have. Indeed, both organizations are looking for "any information concerning accidents by envenomation associated with this fish.

[Macrocane]

Good evening, these are yesterday temperatures, tomorrow I will post today observations to compare and see the effects of the cold surge:

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:23.3°C/73.9°F      max:30.5°C/86.9°F
Santa Ana        min:19.7°C/67.5°F      max:29.5°C/85.1°F
San Salvador     min:20.3°C/68.5°F      max:28.7°C/83.7°F
Las Pilas        min:11.2°C/52.2°F      max:20.9°C/69.6°F
San Miguel       min:23.7°C/74.7°F      max:31.4°C/88.5°F

Max Wind Gusts
Acajutla 9 km/h (5.6 mph)
Ishuatan 13 km/h (8.1 mph)
Santa Ana 8 km/h (5 mph)
San Salvador 22 km/h (13.8 mph)
San Miguel 20 km/h (12.5 mph)

[abajan]

Don't know what is causing it but we on the south coast of Barbados are experiencing some fairly strong gusts of winds right now so much so that one of the galvenized sheets on our little gazebo is flapping about and the patio chairs have been blown into a corner. We had some fairly heavy rain this morning around 10am and it is just starting again now.

According to Meteorologist David Best, the airport recorded a wind gust of 40 mph and some people became concerned (obviously as a result of the recent experience with Tomas) but I didn’t notice any unusual winds here. There was a bit of rain this morning around 10 o’clock though.

[cycloneye]

Sad news from Haiti as the first death was reported.

First death in Haiti related to Tomas

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A complicated pattern cioming up so stay tuned in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A DEEPENING TROUGH BETWEEN 45 AND 50 WEST
EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL PINCH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MONA CHANNEL. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WEAK
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL PULL TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER LOW DIVES SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN TROUGH
WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AS THE WESTERN TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND FORMS A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 30 NORTH 60 WEST ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
IT BEGINS TO RE-JOIN THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TOMAS WAS JUST UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST
NORTH ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UNTIL
IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SUNDAY. FOR
AT LEAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IT WILL MOVE MOSTLY EASTERLY ACCORDING
TO LATEST FORECAST AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW. IN THE MEANTIME
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN...POSSIBLY
TO A 1044 MB HIGH BY TOMORROW...SATURDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH THEN WEAKENS AS
IT DRIFTS EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY WILL WEDGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF WHAT IS LEFT OF TOMAS...AND CAUSE TOMAS TO
RETURN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL HOLD A TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO FOR
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE
STATUS THIS MORNING AT 5 AM AST AND CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING
AND ORGANIZATION ARE NOTABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOMAS SPORTS A
NUMBER OF RAIN BANDS...BUT BANDING IN THE LOCAL AREA IS WEAK. ONE
SUCH BAND IS ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAYEY. SHOWERS HAVE
ALSO FORMED AND COME INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AND ALSO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL RUNS HAVE CONVERGED
TOWARD A SOLUTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE FULL
SPECTRUM OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LEFT TOMAS AS FAR AS NEWFOUNDLAND OR
AS NEAR AS JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
IN 96 HOURS. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF EVEN HAD TOMAS RETURNING TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AFTER A FEW DAYS FREEDOM IN THE
ATLANTIC...APPARENTLY CHOOSING LIFE IN THE CARIBBEAN AS A WEAK
LOW OVER BEING TORN TO SHREDS BY THE FIERCE 60 KNOT WIND SHEAR TO
BE ENCOUNTERED IN THE WESTERLIES THAT WOULD APPEAR NORTH OF US BY
MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS THIS SOLUTION ALSO HAD THE CYCLONE MOVING
AGAINST THE FLOW DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST.
THE NAM MOVED THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY EAST AND THEN BACK AGAIN
DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 300-500 MB LAYER. THIS SOLUTION
WAS ALSO REJECTED. THIS LEFT THE GFS WHICH AT LEAST HAD SOME
SEMBLANCE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FORTUNATELY THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS MORE SIMILAR TO
THE LATEST GFS RUN. THEREFORE HAVE USED THE GFS SOLUTION ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN...ALTHOUGH HAD TO
TONE THE POPS DOWN FROM THE NEAR 100 PERCENT RANGE THAT THE GFS
SHOWED IN ITS FORECAST FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR AT LEAST
SOME PART OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH OF THOSE DAYS. FORECASTING THE
FORMATION OF RAIN BANDS IS UNCERTAIN BUSINESS ANYWAY...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RUN- TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
ONLY COMPOUND THE PROBLEM. THEREFORE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON THE ACTUAL BEHAVIOR OF TOMAS AND WHERE ITS MAIN
RAIN BANDS FORM. THUS EXPECT THAT UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH TOO HIGH
FOR CATEGORICAL RAIN PREDICTIONS...EXCEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH HANGING SOUTHEAST FROM TOMAS CROSSES OVER PUERTO RICO.
MUCH DRYER AIR OUT OF THE HIGH LEAVING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
ON TUESDAY SHOULD PULL THE POPS WAY DOWN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT ONLY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN KEEPING TOMAS WELL TO
OUR NORTH AND SLIGHTLY TO OUR EAST AT THAT TIME. TROPICAL AIR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK IF THE LOW KEEPS ITS CONNECTION WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF US.

THIS PUTS POPS AND QPF IN LOW CONFIDENCE AS BANDS FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD DRENCH PUERTO RICO`S SOUTH COAST AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OR COULD MISS THE AREA ALTOGETHER FOR SOME OR ALL
OF THE TIME UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. RECOMMEND
THAT ALL INTERESTED PARTIES KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...
TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
05/16Z. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AFTER 05/16Z ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES...EXCEPT ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK...WHERE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS...STRONGER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...WILL INCREASE
SEAS TO THE EXTENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SOME THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WINDS
DECREASE SEAS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...BUT IF TOMAS MAINTAINS MORE
STRENGTH THAN FORECAST WOULD EXPECT ATLANTIC SEAS TO REMAIN AT 7
FEET OR ABOVE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WERE
NOTED IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE THIS MORNING AND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS OF A
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE COULD EASILY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 74 / 40 30 60 60
STT 87 77 86 77 / 50 50 50 70

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Circulation. The route of the crossing closed until further notice
franceantilles.fr 05.11.2010

Due to heavy rains that fell on the Basse-Terre last 48 hours new landslides have cut traffic on the route of the crossing. The latter is therefore closed until further notice. Roads in Guadeloupe has deployed its technicians on-site to quickly remedy the situation.
View Thumbnails http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 100419.php

[Gustywind]

Sad news continue in the tropics and in Cuba as a plane crashed with 68 passengers! Looks like that bad weather conditions due to Tomas in vicinity of the country have maybe its little influence... but others factors are pointed.
A plane crashes in the centre of Cuba with 68 persons
REUTERS 05.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 100314.php

Photo taken on November 4, 2010 / Escambray Daily/Cubadebate
Havana (Reuters) - A plane carrying 68 persons is overwritten in the centre of Cuba Thursday without there survivors, relevant authorities.
Aircraft, an ATR-72-212 equipped with two turboprop engines, belonged to the State Aero Caribbean regional company, said the Cuban television. He was transporting 40 Cubans with seven crew members and 28 foreign originating from 10 countries.
"For the time being, the reasons for the accident are unknown." According to information from the local press, Hurricane Tomas was in the region. "IACC (Cuban civil aviation authority) has suspended all flights of the hurricane", ATR said in a press release issued from its headquarters in Toulouse.
The aircraft manufacturer indicated the apparatus was manufactured 15 years ago and posted 25.000 hours of vol. Aero Caribbean operated since October 2006.
The aircraft had taken off from Santiago de Cuba and was the road when he crashed at 17 h 42 (22 h 42 GMT) in a mountainous region Guasimal town in the region of Sancti Spiritus after a call of distress.
Witnesses called by the Escambray (newspaper) newspaper reported that the aircraft had conducted "several sudden movements before its fall". A witness spoke of a "ball of fire in the middle of the mountain" to describe the disaster.
Rescue teams had to use a backhoe to spawn a passage through the thick vegetation surrounding the accident site and retrieve the corpses.
This crash is deadliest in Cuba since the death of 126 people aboard an IL 3 September 1989 his take-off of the.
ATR is a joint venture between EADS European Group and the Italian Finmeccanica (SIFI.MI >.)
Marc Frank and Pierre Sérisier Jean-Stéphane brush for the French service

[cycloneye]

Flooding reported in parts of Haiti

The good news is that so far,no casualties have occured apart from the man that died yesterday.Hopefully,it continues this way.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

PRC055-059-067-093-111-113-121-125-153-052045-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FA.Y.0525.000000T0000Z-101105T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-
305 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM AST FOR THE
FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
GUAYANILLA...GUANICA...PONCE AND PENUELAS

* AT 303 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 4:45 PM
AST.

DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AT LEAST UNTIL
4:45 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[Macrocane]

Good afternoon, this morning was the coldest morning in El Salvador since mid-January I will post today observations until tomorrow, here are yesterday observations, the minimum temperatures are lower and the gusts are stronger than day before thanks to the cold surge:

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:22.9°C/73.2°F      max:30.5°C/86.9°F
Santa Ana        min:18.5°C/65.3°F      max:28.4°C/83.1°F
San Salvador     min:17.1°C/62.8°F      max:28.7°C/83.7°F
Las Pilas        min:9.6°C/49.3°F       max:14.5°C/58.1°F
San Miguel       min:22.0°C/71.6°F      max:34.1°C/93.4°F

Max Wind Gusts
Acajutla 12.4 km/h (7.8 mph)
Ishuatan 46.5 km/h (29.1 mph)
Santa Ana 12.8 km/h (8.0 mph)
San Salvador 31.3 km/h (19.6 mph)
San Miguel 31.1 km/h (19.4 mph)

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

PRC007-009-019-021-025-039-041-043-045-047-073-075-105-107-113-133-
135-149-052215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0526.101105T1913Z-101105T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CIALES PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-
COMERIO PR-AIBONITO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-JAYUYA PR-
OROCOVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-
PONCE PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
313 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CIALES...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...COROZAL...COMERIO...
AIBONITO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...JAYUYA...OROCOVIS...
NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...VILLALBA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND SANTA
ISABEL

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 310 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 615 PM
AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1835 6628 1821 6606 1798 6648 1814 6664

$$

FIGUEROA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO HURRICANE TOMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE TOMAS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...PULLING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BREEZY AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THE
WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS HURRICANE TOMAS
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
LATEST RUN OF GFS...BUT MAJORITY OF LATEST GUIDANCE TRACKS TAKE
TOMAS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED RELATIVE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND AS A RESULT OPTED TO KEEP INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY IN
TACK.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES NEXT WEEK AS SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
TOMAS WILL CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT OCNL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLYING AREA DURG THE
AFTN. SOME OF THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR IN
LOW CIG/VSBY AT LEAST TIL 06/00Z. THEREAFTER PREVAILING VFR CONDS
CAN BE EXPECTED TIL AT LEAST 06/02Z...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INTMT
MVFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH 06/12Z IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PR EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 74 84 / 30 60 60 80
STT 78 86 76 84 / 50 50 70 80

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

PRC029-031-063-077-085-087-103-119-127-139-060000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0527.101105T2202Z-101106T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-NAGUABO PR-
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
602 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS PIEDRAS...NAGUABO...
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 600 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 800 PM

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6604 1846 6595 1823 6577 1816 6587

$$

FIGUEROA/NEGRON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
736 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

PRC029-031-063-077-085-087-103-119-127-139-060200-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0527.000000T0000Z-101106T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-NAGUABO PR-
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
736 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS PIEDRAS...NAGUABO...
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

AT 730 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THESE
AREAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR THOSE REASONS THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE
MUNICIPALITIES HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1000 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6604 1846 6595 1823 6577 1816 6587

$$

FIGUEROA/NEGRON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------