Florida Weather

[Aquawind]

Low Temps in the 40's forecast down here!! Highs in the 70's!! After some decent rains this is great..

[psyclone]

exceptionally chilly here in the bay area for so early in the season... the daytime high at st pete clearwater was 61 while tampa international only got to 62. a normal january high is near 70 so this is remarkable. fortunately for those inclined to like warmer temps the shock of this cold blast will be matched by its brevity as temps snap back to near 80 by tuesday. in the interim, a 3 dog night is in store tonight as temps plunge to levels not seen in many months.

[JonathanBelles]

It got down to 32 last night here in Tallahassee, and I think about the same will occur tonight.

[tropicana]

Sat Nov 6, 2010

Lots of record low maximum temperatures Saturday in Florida, but only 1 record low temperature that I came across ( 41F at Daytona Beach tied 1976).

The coldest temperature was where one would expect it, at Crestview with 31F... but several other 30s , 32F at Tallahassee as jonathan pointed out, 34F at Jacksonville, 36F at Panama City, 37F at Apalachicola, and 38F at Pensacola and Gainesville.

On this rare November day, high temperatures state-wide were all registered in the 60s at all major reporting sites , which doesnt regularly happen. The highs ranged from 60F at both Crestview and at Tallahassee, to a milder 68F at Ft Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Pompano Beach and at Key West.

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR SATURDAY NOV 6 2010

St Petersburg (Whitted Airport) FL 62F tied 1939
Orlando FL 63F
Daytona Beach FL 63F
Tampa FL 62F
Melbourne FL 66F
Naples FL 67F
West Palm Beach FL 67F
Miami FL 67F
Ft Myers FL 67F tied 1954
Key West FL 68F **coldest daytime high so early in season (previous 68F on Nov 10 1943)

-justin-

[JonathanBelles]

Local news said that St. Pete made it to only 61.

[tropicana]

Local news said that St. Pete made it to only 61.

yup they are right, ST Pete/Clearwater reached just 61F.
St Pete/Whitted Airport reached 62F though

[psyclone]

big warmup about to commence that should bring temps to near normal by midweek.

[jinftl]

Time to change the name of this thread!!! No arctic air currently in place or in the forecast for the next week across the state....very comfortable and fairly seasonable temps ahead from the panhandle to the Keys.



Excerpts from NWS Discussions from across the state today:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
251 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE HIGH IS NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR COLD TEMPERATURES AS EARLIER RUNS AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Forecast for the Panhandle:
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 46 TO 49.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 71.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 41 TO 44.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 41 TO 45.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 72.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AS IT
SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS.

LATEST GUIDANCE FROM GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION PRODUCING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. DRY AND COLD AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE SE COAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSE
TO NORMAL BUT MAY DIP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

Forecast for Tampa Bay area:.
WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID
50S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE MID 40S
INLAND.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GIVING A SECOND PUSH TO THE COLD
FRONT AND FINALLY MOVING IT THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING.

STILL MOST OF THE GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES AFTER FROPA WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U 70S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

Forecast for southeast florida (Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach):
WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 65 TO 69.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE EVENING. LOWS 64 TO 68.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 63 TO 67.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

[northjaxpro]

Long range GFS is hinting at a possible arctic air outbreak across the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS by the end of November.

So yes definitely, no significant cold air intrusions expected through the next 10 days over the peninsula. However, after Thanksgiving, that is when we need to play close attention to the models to see if GFS and the other reliable model guidance jumps onboard the cold weather outbreak scenario by the end of November..

[jinftl]

Compared to the frequency...and especially the duration...of the cold outbreaks last winter (particularly the first half of January 2010), I don't think we will see a repeat of that this winter at all. A typical la nina winter features a lower probability of freezing temps taking place as you move down the peninsula.

For coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties, the probability of a temp below 32 degrees during an el nino winter ranges from up to 50% in northern coastal palm beach to 30% in coastal broward. During a la nina winter, the probabilities in those same areas range from 20-30% in northern palm beach county down to 0-10% for coastal broward.

The difference in probability of 32 deg temps in a la nina vs. el nino winter is even more astounding in places like southwest florida....the area around fort myers goes from a 0-20% chance of temps of 32F in a la nina winter like we having coming up vs. a 50-70% chance in an el nino winter!!!

No surprise to hear that potential arctic outbreaks are on the horizon for the eastern u.s....i think that's why it is called winter!!! Will the dynamics be in place to transport that pure arctic air down to key west, and how often and with what intensity this winter...that is the question. No doubt there will be cold weather across the state....but I don't think Miami will have a repeat of the amazing almost 2-week stretch of high temps under 65 deg like we saw this past January.

Long range GFS is hinting at a possible arctic air outbreak across the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS by the end of November.

So yes definitely, no significant cold air intrusions expected through the next 10 days over the peninsula. However, after Thanksgiving, that is when we need to play close attention to the models to see if GFS and the other reliable model guidance jumps onboard the cold weather outbreak scenario by the end of November..

[northjaxpro]

Oh, I agree with you in that with the La Nina pattern fiirmly entrenched, it is not likely that South Florida will see extended periods of cold this upcoming winter. La Nina generally brings mild to occasionally unseasonable periods of warm weather to Florida and much of the Deep South. Any cold air intrusions this upcoming winter I think will be very few and far between in occurance right on through the next three months. We will see freezes here in Jax and the rest of North FL this winter, but the chances are good that we will see that number below the average this season. At the NWS office at Jax, the average number of days with a minimum at or below 32 degrees in the period from November through March is 18. With La Nina, I think we probably may see that number cut down to more like in the 9-12 range. We will see how it pans out.

Another negative is the extreme dry weather, another staple of La NIna. Here at my home in Jax, I have only measured .78 of an inch of rain since Sept 27, and that occured on Nov. 4, ending a streak of 34 consecutive days of no measurable rain. Officially, NWS Jax office is approaching 16 inches below the average for the year to this point. It is ominously starting to look like 1998 again in the region, when we had terrible wildfires due to that extreme drought that year. I pray that we are not trending that way again, but I have to say that it is not looking good at all for now to get any substantial rain anywhere deep into the peninsula for the next ten days..

[JonathanBelles]

Jinftl: Are there any maps similar to those for hard freezes?

[thetruesms]

Oh, I agree with you in that with the La Nina pattern fiirmly entrenched, it is not likely that South Florida will see extended periods of cold this upcoming winter. La Nina generally brings mild to occasionally unseasonable periods of warm weather to Florida and much of the Deep South. Any cold air intrusions this upcoming winter I think will be very few and far between in occurance right on through the next three months. We will see freezes here in Jax and the rest of North FL this winter, but the chances are good that we will see that number below the average this season. At the NWS office at Jax, the average number of days with a minimum at or below 32 degrees in the period from November through March is 18. With La Nina, I think we probably may see that number cut down to more like in the 9-12 range. We will see how it pans out.

Another negative is the extreme dry weather, another staple of La NIna. Here at my home in Jax, I have only measured .78 of an inch of rain since Sept 27, and that occured on Nov. 4, ending a streak of 34 consecutive days of no measurable rain. Officially, NWS Jax office is approaching 16 inches below the average for the year to this point. It is ominously starting to look like 1998 again in the region, when we had terrible wildfires due to that extreme drought that year. I pray that we are not trending that way again, but I have to say that it is not looking good at all for now to get any substantial rain anywhere deep into the peninsula for the next ten days..

1998 is not really the best analog year. '98 actually started quite moist in an El Nino winter and had pretty low wildfire activity. It was not until the El Nino dramatically collapsed into a La Nina that the drought began and wildfire activity exploded in the second half of May and through June.

1989 or 1999 might be better years to think of, with a La Nina coming quickly out of an El Nino the previous year. For reference, out of the past 30 years, 1989 had the most acreage burned and 1999 the 7th most.

[Aquawind]

Sticky and Foggy this morning.. Fropa this week will dry it out a bit but highs still around 80F.. Everyone has been enjoying this fall weather!

[psyclone]

a rude awakening is on the way and the title of this thread is about to make sense again. what a nice, warm November overall. in fact, the October/November timeframe was just spectacular weather wise here in the tampa bay region.

[Aquawind]

We had a nice rain Sunday night with a cold front passing my area this morning. 70's forecast for the next week..hopefully it happens..

[HURRICANELONNY]

The NWS Miami was talking of a possible Artic outbreak next week. Like 12/8. But the models keep flip flopping for S. Florida. This cool down is not Artic in nature. At least from the NWS.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful!!

[northjaxpro]

The mercury dropped to 27.3 degrees at my home location in North Jax, the coldest of this very early winter season so far. Looks like the next two mornings temps minimum temps will drop at or slightly below the freezing mark in interior NE FL.

It looks like we are in a prolonged cold spell for the time being, at least through the first half of December. It appears that the well established Omega Block Ridge of High pressure is well entrenched over the North Atlantic Ocean extending over Greenland. This pattern is poised to continue dumping mother loads of arctic air through established upper level troughs over the Eastern CONUS and over most of the European continent.

Glancing at the model guidance runs for next week, it appears that the coldest air yet of the season will be coming south and early indications are that North Florida and the Panhandle will see minimum temps to dip down into the hard freeze category, especially during the Tuesday - Thursday period (12-6 -12-8). Of course, the model runs could fluctuate, but the NWS office AFDs
from Tallahassee and Jacksonville are definitely on board with the possible arctic outbreak next week.

Stay tuned!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Next week looks interesting for the sunshine state (cold-wise). A freeze extending down into the big cities of central Florida seems very possible. In fact, the 12z GFS text output is showing 28F in Orlando for two mornings in a row (next Wednesday and Thursday)! Such cold temperatures are rare to get down there at any time of the year, let alone the first 10 days of December.

Here is an image from the 12z GFS showing how far south the freeze line is at hour 168:
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... 168l-1.gif