Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[GTStorm]

I still am inclined to think that the phasing will take place as the Low moves over the Northern FL peninsula by late Christmas evening. I think the Euro runs earlier up through the mid week will come to fruition and we may be dealing with a "bomb" moving up along the East Coast on Sunday into Monday afterall!

2-3 day forecasts are usually pretty accurate these days, why so much uncertainty with this one?
also, what is "phasing"?

[northjaxpro]

Phasing is when dynamically the northern and southern jet stream branches in the upper levels of the atmosphere merge together in most instances to generate substantial cyclogenesis of a Low pressue system..

[Dean4Storms]

So close but yet makes all the difference in the world in this set up for any possible snow down close to the Gulf Coast. I just don't see it happening, none of the guidance is phasing them together now. An outside chance but it will take a Christmas miracle!

[MGC]

Yea, I doubt Santa brings us down here in the deep south any Christmas snow this time.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

If anything at all stands a chance at changing to help bring snow further southward would be the low deepening more than expected. The models this close in time usually have the track down pretty close but the intensity is always subject to change.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
119 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...

.THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. AS COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ENTIRELY SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON.

ALZ009-010-TNZ076-096-097-250400-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0012.101225T0900Z-101226T0000Z/
JACKSON-DEKALB-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
119 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE MOSTLY SNOW...EVEN AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH
LOCATIONS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY ICING OR A
LIGHT GLAZE ON THE ROADWAYS. CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE TOWARD SUNSET ON SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIME...MAY CAUSE MINOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

[Brent]

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA
UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

.THE COMBINATION OF TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPLY AMPLE
MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE SATURDAY...PRODUCING
SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030-250415-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0012.101225T0600Z-101226T0600Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE
311 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CEDARTOWN...TO CANTON...TO GAINESVILLE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM
SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY.

TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL USHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE STATE
ON SATURDAY...AND WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALL SNOW AGAIN IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES.

&&

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam

[Raebie]

OK, can you translate that for us layfolk?

[Raebie]

You cannot just post buggy eyes and then walk away. I'm pretty sure it's against AUP.

[Ivanhater]

OK, can you translate that for us layfolk?

Models are starting to trend closer and closer to a phase which brings more precip NW of the low into the cold air. Good news for getting snow...I caution we still have a long way to go

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS is the best yet! Could the Christmas miracle happen? Southern shortwave is out ahead of the Northern stream as the northern stream is back SW more and more. This is strengthening our low more and more each run, which is bringing the cold air in faster with more precip on the NW side. Each run is giving more and more!



'

[Brent]

Holy crap. I'll take the 30-hour frame in a heartbeat.

[Ivanhater]

And just like that, you have snow accumulation down to the Florida panhandle with snow flying over the Florida panhandle. Ladies and Gentlemen, this thing could very well phase and bomb!

[Ntxw]

Remember not to take variables as it can shift this way or that way, it's going to be back and forth. You want a good consensus between the models and EC isn't on board yet (ironic isn't it). Trend is good though! Coastal North Carolina has winter storm watches out!

[srainhoutx]

The Euro inside of 84 hours can be problematic. The 00Z runs as well as 12Z tomorrow will be critical, IMO. Merry Christmas folks.

[Brent]

Twas The Night Before Christmas…
James Spann | 8:40 pm December 24, 2010 | Comments (7)

And all through the weather office, only a few creatures are stirring, staring at 00Z model data…

See the 00Z RPM output valid at 11:00 p.m. tomorrow…



Wow… that suggests snow flakes as far south as Mobile and Baldwin Counties… almost to the Gulf Coast. Will this be a Christmas to remember?

The 00Z data set is generally a little more aggressive with the snow tomorrow, and considering radar trends, looks like we will to consider bumping up the expected snow totals across Alabama. I think a good estimate now is for 1/2 to 1 inch, with isolated amounts to two inches, mostly over Northeast Alabama. The low level thickness values remain marginal when we have the best moisture tomorrow, but considering the good setup for convective snow showers tomorrow night into Sunday morning, sure looks like many places across North-Central Alabama will have some coating of snow by daybreak Sunday.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=38099

[SunnyThoughts]

ohhhhh I see a little patch of snow right over my house here in the FLA panhandle haha I'd love to see a few flakes...absolutely LOVE IT!

[Brent]

OMG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
936 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

...A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY...

.A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS
WILL BE COLDEST AND THEREFORE WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ALZ017>021-026>029-251145-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0010.101225T1200Z-101226T0000Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...
ROANOKE
936 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
CST CHRISTMAS DAY.

IT APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET AND QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE IS
A WINDOW OF 4 OR 5 HOURS BETWEEN 8 AM AND 4 PM WHERE SOME
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL FALL. AT THIS TIME...AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL
BE ON GRASSY AND EXPOSED SURFACES. AS THE SNOW FALLS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING BUT MAY HOVER A DEGREE
OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT ON
THE ROAD SURFACES...BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP. EXERCISE
EXTRA CAUTION IF TRAVELING ON CHRISTMAS.

TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ANY WET SPOTS LEFT ON AREA
ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE MAKING SOME HAZARDOUS SLICK SPOTS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW MAY
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR ISOLATED SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$