Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Walking out in the sun just a few minutes ago, it was beginning to feel downright hot. Sun feels strong today.

[jinftl]

At least for the time being, there seems to be a big change from the pattern we saw in December. Much more of a zonal flow, with only a weak cold front by next weekend.

Per NWS Miami:

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DESPITE VERY SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE AS DEEP LOW OVER GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME, WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WILL FALL TO SEASONABLY...NOT UNSEASONABLY...COOL
LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

[HURRICANELONNY]

At least for the time being, there seems to be a big change from the pattern we saw in December. Much more of a zonal flow, with only a weak cold front by next weekend.

Per NWS Miami:

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DESPITE VERY SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE AS DEEP LOW OVER GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME, WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WILL FALL TO SEASONABLY...NOT UNSEASONABLY...COOL
LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

However...the cold air associated with the high
will be moving more through the Tennessee Valley instead of
Florida at this time. But the latest long range models are showing
a little bit cooler temperatures compare to earlier runs. Will
continue to monitor the trends in the long range models and if the
trend continues then will make adjustments to the weekend temperatures in
later packages.

[northjaxpro]

Longer range runs from the EURO and GFS are indicating major, major changes now as bitterly cold arctic air from Siberia is poised to drop southward down the Lee side of the Rockies into the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, icluding the Deep South and Florida.

There are indications that this upcoming arctic intrusion coming within the next 7-10 days could rival the major arctic outbreak of December 1989. This situation is being followed on two other threads. Needless to say, all of my fellow Storm2K posters here in Florida definitely need to closely monitor this situation over the course of the next week. This is a potentially serious situation for sure. This is amazing that this may occur, especially after many of us in the peninsula are just finished still trying to recover from the coldest December ever on record.

STAY TUNED!!!!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Longer range runs from the EURO and GFS are indicating major, major changes now as bitterly cold arctic air from Siberia is poised to drop southward down the Lee side of the Rockies into the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, icluding the Deep South and Florida.

There are indications that this upcoming arctic intrusion coming within the next 7-10 days could rival the major arctic outbreak of December 1989. This situation is being followed on two other threads. Needless to say, all of my fellow Storm2K posters here in Florida definitely need to closely monitor this situation over the course of the next week. This is a potentially serious situation for sure. This is amazing that this may occur, especially after many of us in the peninsula are just finished still trying to recover from the coldest December ever on record.

STAY TUNED!!!!

Where are the other threads? And what happen to "eastern US weather forum"?

[northjaxpro]

Longer range runs from the EURO and GFS are indicating major, major changes now as bitterly cold arctic air from Siberia is poised to drop southward down the Lee side of the Rockies into the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, icluding the Deep South and Florida.

There are indications that this upcoming arctic intrusion coming within the next 7-10 days could rival the major arctic outbreak of December 1989. This situation is being followed on two other threads. Needless to say, all of my fellow Storm2K posters here in Florida definitely need to closely monitor this situation over the course of the next week. This is a potentially serious situation for sure. This is amazing that this may occur, especially after many of us in the peninsula are just finished still trying to recover from the coldest December ever on record.

STAY TUNED!!!!

Where are the other threads? And what happen to "eastern US weather forum"?

The potential Siberian arctic outbreak for next week is being discussed in the Deep South winter weather thread and. The Siberian express thread.

[tropicana]

But today, in the meantime, it reached 80F at Miami, West Kendall, Pembroke Pines and at West Palm Beach FL

-justin-

[jinftl]

The flip side of the system that will blitz the southeast-i.e., what is forecast for areas to the south of the storm track- is pretty amazing given the 3 arctic fronts/freeze events that florida went through in December. With a winter storm dumping ice and snow to our neighboring states to the north (even into parts of interior south georgia), no damaging frost or freeze event is in the forecast for the citrus and winter produce-growing regions this week (located primarily south of the I-4 Tampa-Orlando corridor).

The jet stream has apparently shifted enough that only very modified versions of the cold air to our north will make it past the panhandle/north florida this week....given the crop losses last month in Central and South Florida, it is a welcome break.




Forecast High and Low Temps this week:
(by comparison, with the December cold snaps, Jacksonville bottomed out with a low temp of 20 degrees on 12/14 & 12/28, Tampa reached 32 degrees on 12/14 & 12/28, and Miami shivered at a low 0f 36 degrees on 12/14).

Monday
Jacksonville: 67/41
Tampa: 73/60
Miami: 79/67

Tuesday
Jacksonville: 62/30
Tampa: 68/48
Miami: 81/66

Wednesday
Jacksonville: 52/22
Tampa: 56/40
Miami: 71/59

Thursday
Jacksonville: 50/23
Tampa: 58/43
Miami: 70/56

Friday
Jacksonville: 55/30
Tampa: 63/45
Miami: 72/61

[Patrick99]

Miami NWS mentioned possibly needing to go a little bit lower than what is currently forecast, but even then it's no big deal.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Miami NWS mentioned possibly needing to go a little bit lower than what is currently forecast, but even then it's no big deal.

They did. A little more then expected.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ct=WEATHER

[psyclone]

the rain/covective potential keeps looking better for monday. hopefully we can get some widespread, meaningful rainfall.

[psyclone]

in addition to the substantial rain potential,spc has introduced a slight risk south of a line from the cape to tampa bay.

[HURAKAN]

lets hope we can get some good rainfall

[Patrick99]

Yes, count me in as well with the rain hopes for tomorrow. Also would not mind getting some thunder and lightning!

[jinftl]

Amazing what a difference just one year can make - or perhaps, more specifically, what a difference an el nino winter (last year) vs. a la nina winter (this year) can make in terms of rainfall in florida.

From the graphic below, this time last year, in January 2010, 97.29% of Florida was experiencing 'No Drought' conditions. This year in January 2011, 99.82% of the state is experiencing some level of drought conditions!!!!

Over 60% of the state is currently experiencing at least Severe Drought conditions.

We will take any rain we can get tomorrow....the outlook for the rest of winter and spring is not good:

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 8
TO 14 DAYS IS FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR
FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL CALLS FOR A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

[NDG]

Some training effects going on in the Tampa area this morning with strong thunderstorms, glad I don't have to drive to Tampa this morning, traffic has to be terrible.

[NDG]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-095-171645-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0001.110117T1549Z-110117T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1049 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHARPES...TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...
TITUSVILLE...PORT SAINT JOHN...PLAYALINDA BEACH...LONE CABBAGE FISH
CAMP...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EST.

* AT 1048 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CANAVERAL GROVES...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE
REFUGE

THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

[psyclone]

this rain was a post festivus miracle. it thundered and rumbled here for 4 hours and we piled up 3 inches of much needed rain. in fact most of pinellas county (except the far south), hillsborough (north of I-4), southeast pasco and northern polk got a 2-4" dousing. retention pond and stream flows are at levels not seen since last august. simply wonderful!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

continues to rain over south florida