Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

From the weathersite of Stormcarib.com
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... nica.shtml

- - Dominica - -
- THUNDER IN JANUARY!
By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2011 04:49:07 -0800

Here in the Layou valley we are having valley weather which was yesterday heavy showers, Jaco Ladd was in Roseau and reported hot sticky sunny weather! Well here in the valley it has poured with rain on and off all night and at 4.30 a.m. this morning Jaco Ladd jumped out of bed to disconnect the routers as we he heard thunder rumbling overhead. Thunder is almost unheard of after November! It does not look like there is will let up in the weather this morning. I have been ill with a very bad head cold because - we believe - of this really cold chilly weather!! I am glad to report that I am feeling better today!! It seems like the whole world is sufffering from cold and wet; look at Australia and the terrible floods they are having in Melbourne! What has happened to Global warming! Our correspondent from Nevis I think is correct in their assumption this weather will continue for a while. It is true it is not good for the tourist but yes, at least it is warmer here in the Caribbean than elsewhere! BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH We want the sunshine.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- It's Wet.
By Jackie Fullbrook <fullbrookt at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2011 08:35:20 -0400

A very wet good morning everyone,
It's rained throughout the night and it is still raining. Some pretty good downpours.
Total whiteout at times. Which is a shame because we have the M V Azure docking
for the first time today. That can't be much fun for the tourists planning to go out on trips
round our island.
So the sea is grey. The sky is grey. Not much in the way of breeze. Sea was a little
rough late last night. Sitting out on the back balcony, all was quiet and still. No dogs barking,
my neighbours had all gone to bed, I could hear a strange noise, then realized I could hear
the waves crashing against the shore, and the pebbles, rocks and stones all being washed
around.
When I came out this morning the sea had already taken on that lovely brown colour,
with the run off from the rivers. So you all be careful, if your near any of those rivers today.
And watch out for those landslides. Sun is making its first attempt of the day. Have a huge
rainbow going across now. Had planned a trip into town today, it would be good day to go,
just not to sure I really want to get that wet.
I'm off to have my other coffee and make the decision. You all stay safe.

[cycloneye]

OMG,I didn't know it was that bad there Gusty. My condolenses to the families of those who died.Hopefully,all return to normal as soon as possible.

[Gustywind]

OMG,I didn't know it was that bad there Gusty. My condolenses to the families of those who died.Hopefully,all return to normal as soon as possible.

Thanks Luis i appreciate sincerely. Looking at Meteo-France radar seems that another isolated but pretty robust lines of showers and squalls are unhopefully approaching the island... Let's keep our fingers crossed seeing a very quick end from this weather event as grounds are saturated and could pose a threat for the islanders.

[Gustywind]

From Meteo-France Guadeloupe:
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php
The time for the next few hours on Guadeloupe
Animated radar is updated every 15 minutes, the satellite animation is updated hourly and forecast bulletin at least every 3 hours during the day.

Weather-France Guadeloupe Hello!
12 H 45 the level of vigilance is: Orange for heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Currently, only triangle Gosier/Moule/Saint-François is temporarily saved by rain...
Within three hours, sometimes intense showers will continue to scroll across the archipelago, alternating with a few lulls. A thunderstorm just still produce locally
No area is sheltered, Morne-to - region water and Grans-funds are still vulnerable.
These observations and their immediate evolution will be handed over to day to 15: 45.

[Gustywind]

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 107726.php
TRAPPED
B.C. France-French West Indies Guadeloupe 05.01.2011

The archipelago was placed yesterday evening in yellow level vigilance after very heavy rainfall concentrated on Grande Terre. In the space of 24 hours, it fell on average 100 mm of water per square metre, with peaks exceeding 150 mm by location. An exceptional situation for the season caused extensive flooding, blocking of roads and crippling hundreds of motorists, especially in the pointoise region. Several houses and schools had to be evacuated.
To the Chazeau / Les Abymes, yesterday morning, the bus could barely move, which was no longer the case late in the afternoon with the worsening of weather (Sylvère Selbonne)To Besson / Les Abymes, this young woman guard smile until the tow truck. (H.T.)Floods: the galley could continue today. For weather France, was that of a "zonepluvio-thunderstorm." Nevertheless. Yesterday, the Guadeloupian him were well felt on the archipelago. With it should be noted, sacred differences and differences in treatment of areas. The Basse-Terre has undergone rain much of the day but had been spared by the floods. Less fortunate residents of Grande Terre and especially those installed in the centre had to deal with sudden climbs waters. Whatsoever on the pointoise region at Morne-to-l'Eau, Sainte-Anne, Saint-François and although obviously in the great funds, he fell, in the space of 24 hours, approximately 100 mm of water per square metre. With spikes that can place exceed 150 mm.
These important waterfalls generated multiple floods and created, at the same time, a beautiful mess on many routes. End of the day, firefighters, overwhelmed by calls from the 18 advised drivers through the area of Pointe-à-Pitre. And Jean-Gabriel Quillin Routes of Guadeloupe, Assistant Director of drop down the long list of flooded roads or "disturbed due to stormy rains". For several hours, it was impossible to move in the areas of Chazeau, Chauvel-Besson, Chastel or hope borrow roundabout Dugazon, les Abymes.
Fate for motorists agglutinated with Chastel/Morne-to-l'eau, adrift in Poucet / Le Gosier (at the entrance of the village), or en rade Bragelone/Saint-François's side.
Lafond underwater
More reckless wanting to take force passing are often found nailed in place. More dramatic: 4 x 4 driver was swept away in his vehicle prior to be finally recovered except Chazeau and healthy. In the same vein, others had to be rescued. Blocked on the roofs of their vehicles, the image of one of our colleague RCI (read also).
As often, when significant rainfall, the inhabitants of Lafond / Les Abymes saw water rise and eventually invading their homes. Balance: firefighters assigned to main relief of this town centre practically was requisitioned for evacuation. Evacuations, he finally discussed at Morne-to-l'Eau, where sectors seemed particularly monitored, as well as in schools or colleges...
Ultimately is around 9 p.m. with a lull in the rain, the situation slowly began to return to the order. But caution: there should be a small period of respite. Weather-France strong rollups are again fear today on waterlogged soils.
Chazeau, the deliveryman, betrayed by his minivan, cannot rely on the strength of his arm. (Sylvère Selbonne)-Rescued drivers
Early evening yesterday, firefighters were mobilized on les Abymes and Morne-to-l'Eau, sector where relief operations were underway. The codis (departmental operational centre fire and rescue) has operated as a prefecture crisis cell.
Due to precipitation in the last few days, some areas and roads were flooded. This was the case in the Grand-Fonds, Doubs and Chazeau (at the level of the deck and school). The road was cut, cannot pass.
Some motorists, surprised by the rising waters, found themselves trapped. Firefighters still trying to recover one of them, Chazeau, around 9 p.m. yesterday. It was blocked on the roof of his car and firefighters were the worst difficulties to access up to him. A hoisting had even considered. Finally, around 21: 30, he was out of danger.
At the same time, the firefighters were in uncertainty about a 4 x 4, was swept away by the waters of the Doubs.
To 21 h 30, they did not say if there was someone on the inside. "It is not known, there is no visibility. "Have been necessary to send the world", is indicated in the codis. Firefighters were on hand with divers. Army helicopter was also travel to the area. At the time where we bouclions our Edition yesterday (about 22 hours), the uncertainty has lasted.
Yesterday evening, CTA identified 20 interventions in les Abymes, but also to Pointe-à-Pitre, notably to Lafond. Primarily with security warnings and relief to people.
This Mornalienne shows us this ravine has sharply inflate near to his home in ChazeauAt Chazeau/Morne-to-l'Eau, motorists took undue risks to go about their business.-Panic parents
It has sounded phone, yesterday, at the offices of processing calls for firefighters approved emergency call centre. During the day, hundreds of calls have been identified for flooded houses, evacuation or motorists requests failed on the roof of the car. 17 Hours, these cries for help had already resulted in more than 50 interventions. And it was far from being finished as the situation continued to go crescendo, with for example, parents panic at the thought of not being able to go to retrieve their toddlers:
"We received a dozen calls of this type." People wanted to know how to do and ask whether specific measures had been taken by public authorities. » -The water station
Tips compiled by the Deputy Director of roads in Guadeloupe are logical sense, but to call them is not evil: "today, road users are encouraged to adapt their speed on soggy, roads to avoid any risk of skimming." Even better: "If you can, avoid moving." -The crossing closed
He reportedly fell, to break that 50 mm of water in the vicinity of the crossing road. Nothing comparable situation with the situation registered les Abymes and Morne-to-l'Eau, the hardest hit areas. "We have recorded only a small landslide in the mamelles", noted routes of Guadeloupe. However, the axis preventively was closed from 20 hours for the night.-The time today
Weather-France placed on yellow alert, Guadeloupe rains sometimes good intensity and at times involved beating Thunderbird should persist today again, even though a slight lull was expected since last night.
Caution however continues to impose on the roads, usually flood areas and in the vicinity of rivers and streams, "where sudden possible overflows and water level climbs are feared." -Lucky and some shipwrecked
At 2130, region prefect indicated on the radio waves that school transport buses were still blocked on flooded roads, with children inside, when motorists saw their car immobilized in a dozen centimetres of water. It prevents: some people are in are still well drawn on roads. Advantage of Jarry at 19 h 30, a motorist indicated us putting 13 mn to win his home located in Gosier marina. "In this sector, the roads were returned practicable." I've not encountered difficulties. Immediately there was a slowdown at Cora, towards Poucet. "A contrario, Melanie, part of Jarry p.m., arrived home at Perrin 3 hours and 40 minutes later.-EUR 10 troubleshooting
Floods have been cases of "good Samaritans" yesterday. The scene is happening in the vicinity of the hospital, we have been reported by several witnesses: history of rescuing motorists who were savvy tires in water, some young asked ten euros to push the car to dry.- 100
He fell 100 mm of water per metre square in the space of 24 hours. With spikes that can place exceed 150 mm.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST WED JAN 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI IS ESSENTIALLY GONE
AS TJUA VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO
SOUTHEAST...THOUGH COASTAL LOCATIONS STILL SHOW SOME ONSHORE FLOW.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH NEXT FEW
DAYS THOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOSTLY KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST PR A RESULT OF AFTERNOON
HEATING...LIGHT FLOW AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. SAME
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST MORE FOR NORTHWEST PART OF ISLAND...DOWNWIND
OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON THU AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING
ISSUES BUT THERE MAY BE A BIT OF STREET FLOODING IF ENOUGH OF THEM
DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH SCT-BKN CIGS BTWN FL020 AND FL060...WILL PREVAIL
AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDINESS AND SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...AND
THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDS IN PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJMZ...TJBQ
AND POSSIBLY TJSJ FROM TIME TO TIME. LLVL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 06/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL INTO THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS
WILL BE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
REMAINS WEAK AND TRANSITORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 71 82 / 40 40 10 50
STT 72 83 75 83 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

Good evening everyone! Gustywind thanks for the updates I hope that Guadeloupe recovers very soon.

The minimum temperatures registered this morning were a little higher than yesterday and the northerly winds ended early in the morning. I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the info of this event. On Friday a new cold front will arrive but it is expected to last no more than 24 hours. If you visit the winter weather thread then you must already noticed that a mega high pressure is expected to build early next week in North America and will extend a ridge down to Mexico and Central America and is almost a fact that it will produce very cold temperatures and strong winds in the region. Take a look at what the 18z GFS is showin in 168 hours:

[Gustywind]

Good evening everyone! Gustywind thanks for the updates I hope that Guadeloupe recovers very soon.

The minimum temperatures registered this morning were a little higher than yesterday and the northerly winds ended early in the morning. I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the info of this event. On Friday a new cold front will arrive but it is expected to last no more than 24 hours. If you visit the winter weather thread then you must already noticed that a mega high pressure is expected to build early next week in North America and will extend a ridge down to Mexico and Central America and is almost a fact that it will produce very cold temperatures and strong winds in the region. Take a look at what the 18z GFS is showin in 168 hours:

Thanks things are really improving here since this afternoon.Hope you're fine too

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 PM AST WED JAN 5 2011

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A WEAKENING OF THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFTING OF THE WINDS TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO
DRIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESULTING IN VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
LINGERING...SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO WHILE WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT A
CONCERN...WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS TO PERSIST INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST THU JAN 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...AT MID/UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EAST
U.S. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TROUGH WILL SWEEP NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY FOR PUERTO
RICO SHIFT WESTWARD TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK PVA FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N40W RIDGING WEST ALONG 25W
TO AROUND 70W WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS
EASTWARD LOCAL AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE COL BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
AT THE CURRENT TIME WE CONTINUE WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AS
SUCH A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. HOWEVER AS THE
RIDGE RETREATS...OW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK ADIABATIC
LIFT OF THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.

SATELLITE SHOWS THAT TAIL EDGE OF MAXIMUM AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS LIES AROUND 64W ALONG 17N WITH A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. AREA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE WESTWARD
AND BULK WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR MAKE IT PAST THE LOCAL AREA
BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY STILL MAKE IT OVER LAND AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
STILL FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.

TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF INSERTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH AND WEAK DIVERGENCE AND PVA THOUGHT MAYBE THE POTENTIAL
MIGHT EXIST...BUT NOT SURE WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT IT...SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS WITH SCT-BKN CIGS
BTWN FL020 AND FL060...PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDINESS
AND MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA DURG THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND CONTINUED OVERALL
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES... AND ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA. PREVAILING EASTERLY LLVL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER BCMG MORE
SELY AFT 06/18Z. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS TODAY
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SLOWLY BECOMING LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 71 / 40 10 50 0
STT 83 75 83 74 / 30 20 20 30

[Macrocane]

This morning is the coolest morning in 10 days, though the northerly winds ended yesterday the lowest temperatures were registered today (except for Costa Rica and Panama). The lows this morning:

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.9°C (53.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.6°C (33.1°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 5.4°C (41.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14.4°C (57.9°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 7°C (45°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 12.3°C (54.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.5°C (70.7°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 PM AST THU JAN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL GENERATED STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW...JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE ESE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE
BLOCKING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT
MOISTURE FRAGMENTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS GENERATED MAOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE LOCAL RADAR
ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE ESE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN FROM THIS DIRECTION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CIGS IN A FEW SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND N PORTION OF PR. SE TO S WINDS BLO
FL100 TO BE AOB 15 KTS. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEEPEN ON FRI.


&&

.MARINE...WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. SCA COULD BE ISSUED FOR THIS TWO
SWELLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 70 82 / 10 50 0 40
STT 72 83 74 83 / 20 20 30 30

&&

[Macrocane]

Good evening. For most of the central american countries this afternoon was rather warm but for El Salvador it was the coolest afternoon since December 28. These are the maximum temperatures registered today:

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.1°C (80.8°F)
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.9°C (93.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 24.9°C (76.8°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.4°C (90.3°F)

[cycloneye]

It looks like the dry season will arrive as it does normally every year in the first 3 months (Read blue sentence at updated discussion)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST THU JAN 6 2011

.UPDATE...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A
GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
PATCHY MOISTURE CARRIED IN THIS WIND FLOW WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DECREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 AM AST FRI JAN 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LONG WAVE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST
NORTHEAST AND REACH THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS WILL FLATTEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IN THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION WILL MOVE TROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...UPPER HIGH WILL
AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH PULLS
NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

IN THE LOW LEVEL LOW LEVELS...UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WHILE THE
EAST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RECEDES FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL INDUCE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOOSEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THEN A RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY... AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERED IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE
REMAIN UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN PWAT VALUES ON SUNDAY AS THE MID TO LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO EVEN DRIER AND STABLE
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONLY LIMITED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN SOME
BRIEF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. NO WIDESPREAD
OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS HOWEVER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS.

EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
IF ANY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA TODAY. EXPECT VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 10 KNOTS
OR LESS DURG THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 82 72 / 50 10 40 10
STT 83 72 84 75 / 20 30 30 20

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Gusty,have things returned to normal in the butterfly island after those floods?

[Macrocane]

Today was the coolest day in San Salvador since December 23, in other cities of the region it was a cool too (except for Panama city)

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.4°C (52.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0°C (32°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 14.4°C (60.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.3°C (41.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 15.9°C
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (58°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.7°C (56.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST FRI JAN 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ALSO FEW AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE ISLANDS REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION...LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS HAS BEEN MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH PRODUCED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS A LOW LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY AND WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DON`T EXPECT TOO
MUCH WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MAINLY FAIR AND PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTED A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS
MOMENT..THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THE
NEXT 24 HRS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 82 / 10 40 10 20
STT 73 83 76 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST SAT JAN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
EAST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RECEDE EASTWARD AND LOOSEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEREAFTER ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF AND BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT FAIRLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOME
AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ONCE AGAIN. SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
A ONLY A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IF
ANY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK... AS NO MAJOR SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT IN
LLVL SRLY WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AN AFTERNOON SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ FROM 08/16Z-08/22Z...RESULTING IN VERY
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH VFR CONS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES IN
SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A SMALL NORTHERN SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
A LARGER SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON
MONDAY. IN ADDITION INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 83 73 / 40 10 20 20
STT 84 74 84 75 / 20 20 20 30