Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

Weird to see the Shreveport NWS bounce so much. For a place like Tyler they now have little or no snow accumulation expected.

[DonWrk]

Has anything changed with the timing or track of the low?

[northtxboy]

LET IS SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DougNTexas]

How is Tyler/Longview so quickly out of the snow?

[Turtle]

I know iorange.

I live in Marshall, TX (East of you) and they showed 3-7" earlier, now they are showing up to 1". Shreveport is even less with up to up to .5".

I'm thinking they are trying to play it safe since we are right on the edge of snow/rain/sleet/ice/wintry mix.

[iorange55]

It's just a wait see at this point and everyone is putting out their best guess. I went back and looked at the night before the foot of snowfall in Dallas last year (yes I realize this is not last year or the same storm) but I wanted to go back and look just to see what was all being said and how it compared.

Around 10 at night the NWS had us at 1-3 inches of snow with maybe 4 inches, and well you know what happened. Obviously I'm not saying anything close to that will happen again. Just pointing out things can change rather quickly. Reading back people were waking up in the middle of the night with some snow on the ground and everyone was in shock a little. Wasn't supposed to start that early.

[Kelarie]

Well from Watch to Warning....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
325 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-090530-
/O.UPG.KSHV.WS.A.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.W.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA
325 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

* FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. IN
SOME AREAS THE SNOW MAY FALL IN COMBINATION WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SLEET.

* SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA...CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[kb75007]

Well the watch went to a warning north and east of us in and north of Dallas. Whats the latest for us? Does anyone know or think they will change us from a watch to a warning?!

[Ntxw]

Assault from Mexico is on the move!



FW put out a new snow map.

[srainhoutx]

Nice virga shower this evening crossing NW Harris County.

[iorange55]

The more I look back at last year's snow storm the more I see how incredible it was. Even when the snow started a lot of people (me included) thought it'd start turning to rain. It just kept on coming and coming and coming.

Ntxw didn't get fooled, though. He said it would stay mostly snow.

[Turtle]

Update for Marshall, TX forecast.

Tonight: A chance of rain and sleet after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Sunday: Rain and sleet before noon, then rain, snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain. High near 36. East wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of 0.4 to 0.6 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow and sleet before midnight, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Yay!

[Ntxw]

The more I look back at last year's snow storm the more I see how incredible it was. Even when the snow started a lot of people (me included) thought it'd start turning to rain. It just kept on coming and coming and coming.

Ntxw didn't get fooled, though. He said it would stay mostly snow.

That was an incredible event. I doubled guessed myself 5x over and was in such shock that right before the event the models had historic amounts, didn't want to believe it so I stuck with the 3-6 inches. Got burned there lol. Txagwxman did a good analysis the night before, he pointed out the temps being colder and that there was basically limitless moisture streaming in from the Pacific, to heck with the models

Last year I didn't do a good job of saving the images and using a host to post them which would've helped this go round taking a look back at how things panned out. Not going to leave anything out this year!

For the record, I think the Canadian did the best the few days leading up to that system!

[iorange55]

For the record, I think the Canadian did the best the few days leading up to that system!

*grins* Last time around I slept in kind of late since I thought it wasn't going to start that early, and I missed all the fun of tracking it as it came together. Thinking I'll be watching it overnight this time around.

Hoping I can test out my new camcorder.

[Ntxw]

For the record, I think the Canadian did the best the few days leading up to that system!

*grins* Last time around I slept in kind of late since I thought it wasn't going to start that early, and I missed all the fun of tracking it as it came together. Thinking I'll be watching it overnight this time around.

Hoping I can test out my new camcorder.

Should get your sleep now lol

[amawea]

Yep iorange, I would advise doing like Ntsw said and getting some rest now. Get up about 3 a.m. and make a long day of it tomorrow.

[kb75007]

Does anyone know or think theyll go from a watch to a warning to the rest of us?

[srainhoutx]

Does anyone know or think theyll go from a watch to a warning to the rest of us?

Time will tell. There are so many dynamics at play that lend to a forecasting nightmare, if you will. Stay Tuned. The event is yet to unfold.

[johnbasham]

Good Evening all....

I thought I'd share our (Storm Spotter METOPS) evening forecast issuance for clients regarding Sunday's Winter Weather Event across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.



If I get a chance I'll forward our "late" forecast later tonight from our overnight meteorologist.

Basham

[iorange55]

Yep iorange, I would advise doing like Ntsw said and getting some rest now. Get up about 3 a.m. and make a long day of it tomorrow.

Lol, no wife here yet. I might go to bed early though or just stay up all night. Hopefully since we were so lucky last year we won't get burned this year.