Texas Winter 2010-2011

[HockeyTx82]

Well here's to waking up to a whiteout. Goodnight all. Call me if anything changes.

[Janie2006]

I don't mean to be contrarian, but can evaporative cooling really be responsible for a solid ten degree drop in temperature? Maybe within 12 hours, sure, but by then the storm will be almost gone.

One of the things about last February's storm that I noticed was the NWS was consistently forecasting our low temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than they ended up being over the week prior to the snowstorm. So when I saw the forecast for overnight temps in the upper 30s/low 40s and rain changing over to snow in the mid-morning, I suspected that the temperature forecast would bust low and we'd get snow falling sooner than expected, making higher accumulation totals. I forecasted 3"-6" with some lucky folks getting 8" as opposed to the 1"-3" that the NWS had forecasted....I didn't predict the foot we ended up with but I still counted it as a win. This go around, I'm afraid the same trend is working in the opposite direction.

But we'll see. I hope I get pleasantly surprised

(1) evaporative cooling effect.....I've seen the surface air temperature cool by at least 5 degrees or more during events like this, within an hour or two.

(2) cold air advection

[HockeyTx82]

Rain is coming down here in Denton. Nice and steady at that. Perhaps that's a good thing? Means the air will cool more quickly?

[HockeyTx82]

Rain is coming down here in Denton. Nice and steady at that. Perhaps that's a good thing? Means the air will cool more quickly?

Well dang, the dewpoint is 32 and temp is 41 as of 1:53AM with Heavy Rain being reported. Bleh

Denton Municipal Airport
Lat: 33.2 Lon: -97.18 Elev: 646
Last Update on Jan 9, 1:53 am CST
Heavy Rain
41 °F
(5 °C) Humidity: 70 %
Wind Speed: S 9 MPH
Barometer: 29.89" (1012.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 32 °F (0 °C)
Wind Chill: 35 °F (2 °C)
Visibility: 4.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

[HockeyTx82]

So what do the models say about the cold air next week? We busting on that as well? The only thing that can make this weekend end up being good if we get no snow is the Eagles getting stomped by Green Bay. If that happens and we get no snow I am fine with that. Snow will melt but that loss with last a lifetime!!!!!

[aubrn34]

Sleet here in Northeast Dallas even though it's 44 degrees. I can hear it pinging off the metal patio cover.

[WeatherKing]

Sleet here in Garland

[johnbasham]

We are starting our morning forecast distribution to our clients here at Storm Spotter METOPS.
I'll forward copies of our Forecast maps for today's event as we issue them.



Let me know if there is anything I can do to help anyone this morning (kinda busy, but will do my best to respond ASAP)

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

[pwrdog]

Back in april 2007, in northern south east texas, it was 40 with a dew point of 36 with light rain and as the cold core upper low moved over the temp fell quickly to 33 with very heavy snow...

Very wet with huge flakes.. silver dollar size..

BTW... That was the latest snowfall in Livingston history... and for many across SE Texas..


After the upper low went by the temps rebounded back to 36 or so..

Basically it brought the cold temps aloft closer to the ground for a short period of time...


I was pretty sure there was no way it could snow with the temp profile... We got about 1.5 -2 inches but only because the very very warm ground temps because it was 85 just a few days before.. Some got 3 inches plus..

It snowed at almost a whiteout rate for an hour or so..



Looking at my data, The day started of at 47 F with a dew point at 28 F..

[johnbasham]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
250 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BEE COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
CENTRAL LIVE OAK COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 AM CST

* AT 247 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GEORGE
WEST...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIVER CREEK ACRES...
DINERO...
BEEVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2847 9759 2825 9754 2816 9817 2833 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 258DEG 43KT 2826 9809

[somethingfunny]

Sleet here in Garland

What part of Garland? I'm near Kingsley/1st Street and I can hear the pellets but all I see are rain sprinkles

[WeatherKing]

190 and Campbell has changed to sprinkles though

[somethingfunny]

190 and Campbell has changed to sprinkles though

Dang, I must have missed it! I want to be out there watching for snow and ice but that wind is too cold!

I'm still very worried about the temperatures busting warm. We've held steady around 45 degrees for several hours....

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Well, you win some you lose some. Thats the way winter is in North Texas, that football signature yesterday was a bad sign for all of us, lol. Looks like it's way too fast and warm for us to get much of anything at this point.

[johnbasham]

We continue producing forecast graphics for our clients affected by the Winter Storm System. Here's a look at our depiction for 21z.
Please let me know if you find these useful, if they are not, I won't clutter the board with them. I just thought you may like to see some of the data we produce for our emergency management, utility, and transportation clients.

[WeatherKing]

Great stuff John. Appreciate the forecast

[somethingfunny]

I love these maps that you share, and thatnew spot of red ice storm over fannin county is disturbing, however unlikely I think it is with our temps hovering at 45.
What made you decide to introduce the ice?

[DFW Stormwatcher]

You think this system is going to slow down John? Looks like the moisture is going to be outta here before noon. Am I wrong? I would love to be, lol. At least here in dfw. Texarkana looks to still get a few inches of snow.

[johnbasham]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW TODAY AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
A DECATUR TO GRANBURY TO PALESTINE LINE TODAY. THIS TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS EARLY AS 10 AM CST NEAR THE
PARIS AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE METROPLEX AFTER NOON TODAY. THE TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
ADVISORY BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AREAS NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF GREENVILLE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ANYWHERE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WITHIN THE
METROPLEX...AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY VARY SUBSTANTIALLY
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS.

SNOWFALL WILL END ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
START TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE HEAVIEST AROUND SUNRISE WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY
MORNING. MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEFORE HEADING OUT TO WORK ON MONDAY. PLAN TO TAKE
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELING MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

$$

[SouthernMet]

Edited out because I was less than a minute late. Congrats to johnbasham