#179 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:09 am
1/15/11
Morning Long Range Discussion from Atlanta, GA Peachtree City WFO
From Atlanta,GA extended.....
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS DURING
THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WHEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC OUTBREAK INTO THE EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY. FOR
TUE-WED...PREFER THE GFS SCENARIO WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED. THUS...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUE...SHIFTING EAST TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. A
WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD ERODE FROM ALL
EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NE COUNTIES BY TUE AFTERNOON. TUE SHOULD OFFER
THE WARMEST TEMPS TO THE REGION WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME...BUT
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP IT COOLER THAN IT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE. ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR WED AS A MODIFIED
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BY THU...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN THE PREDOMINATE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HERALD THE
BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THE SOURCE OF THIS AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS RUSSIA...AND TRAVELS ACROSS THE N POLE AND INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE CORE OF THIS AIR CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS NEAR
-40C. THIS COLD OUTBREAK MAY RIVAL THE 12-13 DEC COLD OUTBREAK AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH -18C ACROSS N GA TO -10C ACROSS CENTRAL GA.HOWEVER...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST AS LONG AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY KICKS THE DEEPEST COLD AIR OUT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE
UNDERCUT THE MEX MOS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FRI-SAT PERIOD...GIVEN
HISTORY OF SUCH EVENTS THIS WINTER WITH SIMILAR 850MB PROGGED TEMPS.
GUIDANCE TENDING WAY TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND NOT PROPERLY
ACCOUNTING FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD AIR. STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILLS THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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