Texas Winter 2010-2011

[srainhoutx]

FYI: Some special sounding data will be launched around 18Z across TX/OK/AR/LA. There is even a suggestion of Winter RECON missions to better evaluate the situation ahead this week. Those are strong hints that there is certainly something ahead that requires as much data as possible...

NOUS42 KWNO 161339
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1337Z SUN JAN 16 2011..CORRECTION...RELEASE SONDES TODAY NOT
TOMORROW...
THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME..
12Z RAOB RECAP...
KPP/78970 - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS...
NCEP HPC IS REQUESTING 18Z SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY 1/16 FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATES TX..LA..OK..AR..THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING
UPPER AIR SITES..72249 FWD..72250 BRO..72251 CRP..72261 DRT..72265
MAF..72363 AMA..72364 EPZ..72240 LCH..72248 SHV..72233 LIX..72340
LZK..72357 OUN..
74646 LMN..

THE REASON FOR THE REQUEST FOLLOWS...
IT WOULD BE BENEFICIAL TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IF ALL UPPER AIR
SITES IN OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, TEXAS, AND LOUISIANA WERE ABLE TO
LAUNCH AN 18Z SET OF BALLOONS/RADIOSONDES TODAY 1/16 TO HELP
BETTER INITIALIZE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF MEXICO AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMERGING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN LESS SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COUPLED WITH THE
SCHEDULED WINTER WEATHER RECON.
A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

This was the CARCAH assignment (Winter RECON) issued yesterday for today/tomorrow...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151930
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EST SAT 15 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 17/1200Z
B. AFXXX 09WSA TRACK66
C. 17/0730Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 17/1400Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 18/0000Z
B. POSSIBLE A62/ DROP 10 (TORRY)/ 18/1200Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: G-IV WINTER STORM MISSION TASKED
IN WSPOD 10-045 WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED.
SEF

[northtxboy]

FYI: Some special sounding data will be launched around 18Z across TX/OK/AR/LA. There is even a suggestion of Winter RECON missions to better evaluate the situation ahead this week. Those are strong hints that there is certainly something ahead that requires as much data as possible...

NOUS42 KWNO 161339
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1337Z SUN JAN 16 2011..CORRECTION...RELEASE SONDES TODAY NOT
TOMORROW...
THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME..
12Z RAOB RECAP...
KPP/78970 - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS...
NCEP HPC IS REQUESTING 18Z SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY 1/16 FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATES TX..LA..OK..AR..THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING
UPPER AIR SITES..72249 FWD..72250 BRO..72251 CRP..72261 DRT..72265
MAF..72363 AMA..72364 EPZ..72240 LCH..72248 SHV..72233 LIX..72340
LZK..72357 OUN..
74646 LMN..

THE REASON FOR THE REQUEST FOLLOWS...
IT WOULD BE BENEFICIAL TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IF ALL UPPER AIR
SITES IN OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, TEXAS, AND LOUISIANA WERE ABLE TO
LAUNCH AN 18Z SET OF BALLOONS/RADIOSONDES TODAY 1/16 TO HELP
BETTER INITIALIZE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF MEXICO AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMERGING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN LESS SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COUPLED WITH THE
SCHEDULED WINTER WEATHER RECON.
A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

This was the CARCAH assignment (Winter RECON) issued yesterday for today/tomorrow...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151930
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EST SAT 15 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 17/1200Z
B. AFXXX 09WSA TRACK66
C. 17/0730Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 17/1400Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 18/0000Z
B. POSSIBLE A62/ DROP 10 (TORRY)/ 18/1200Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: G-IV WINTER STORM MISSION TASKED
IN WSPOD 10-045 WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED.
SEF

ok all you mets somone tell me what this means? please

[Ntxw]

ok all you mets somone tell me what this means? please

It means the next run after 0z this morning, as well as possible future runs from models would get some extra data = better accuracy for a special occasion.

GFS this morning is diggy and slowing the trough axis behind the front, continues to play catch up. Signs of things to come.

[northtxboy]

ok all you mets somone tell me what this means? please

It means the next run after 0z this morning, as well as possible future runs from models would get some extra data = better accuracy for a special occasion.

They see some thing that they think might be a problem then for later this week right? I am getting excited here

[txagwxman]

Man, these models have backed off...

ECMWF only a 1028 mb high now down the Plains this Thu/Fri. Don't think it will be enough to get ice into DFW, but we will see. Should get snow in Lubbock/Amarillo Thursday.

[wall_cloud]

Thought I'd share this nice image of some wave clouds developing over the southern Rockies. Northerly jet of 100kts at 12Z over far west TX.

[orangeblood]

Man, these models have backed off...

ECMWF only a 1028 mb high now down the Plains this Thu/Fri. Don't think it will be enough to get ice into DFW, but we will see. Should get snow in Lubbock/Amarillo Thursday.

This is probably a dumb question but don't you consider the source region the high pressure is coming from as well as the strength for determining the magnitude of the cold air? You don't necessarily need a strong high pressure to get bitterly cold air, do you?

[wall_cloud]

Man, these models have backed off...

ECMWF only a 1028 mb high now down the Plains this Thu/Fri. Don't think it will be enough to get ice into DFW, but we will see. Should get snow in Lubbock/Amarillo Thursday.

This is probably a dumb question but don't you consider the source region the high pressure is coming from as well as the strength for determining the magnitude of the cold air? You don't necessarily need a strong high pressure to get bitterly cold air, do you?

bitterly cold temperatures tend to equal high pressure (remember cold air is dense)

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the Canadian (GEM) suggests a couple of 1040+ high pressure ridges dropping S from The N Pole beginning around hour 38 near the Yukon/NW Territories.

[srainhoutx]

Oh my...

[iorange55]

Looks like a lot of moisture. To me it looks more like a Thursday event? I think wxman has said wednesday night? I guess we won't know for sure this far out.

[Brandon8181]

Looks like a lot of moisture. To me it looks more like a Thursday event? I think wxman has said wednesday night? I guess we won't know for sure this far out.

I believe it will be Thu night into Friday.

[srainhoutx]

Winter RECON schedule has updated...

NOUS42 KNHC 161830
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EST SUN 16 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-047

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A65/ DROP 10 (STIFF)/ 18/0000Z
B. AFXXX 10WSA TRACK65
C. 17/1800Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/0200Z

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. A65/ DROP 10 (STIFF)/ 18/1200Z
B. AFXXX 11WSA TRACK65
C. 18/0615Z
D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/1400Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: WC-130 WINTER STORM MISSION TASKED
ON WSPOD 10-046 WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED.

[TwisterFanatic]

Winter RECON? How often does that happen?

[srainhoutx]

Winter RECON? How often does that happen?

This will be the second of the year. The Christmas Eve Storm was the first that developed into a Major East Coast Winter Storm. Last winter there were many missions across the Pacific. In fact a G-IV flew for almost 3-4 months from Japan and HI. There were many missions of C-130's from AK last year as well.

[ndale]

Because I don't read the Euro as well as the gfs, can someone give me a synopsis and tell me what the "Oh my" is for?

Edited for spelling

[mrgolf]

Wallcloud,i have a question. can you please explain to me the reason they did this recon plane thing today? What is their purpose? I remember them doing on last winter,but really didnt know why. In my opinion,they should have done one with this last weekends event that had cold air in place and then a low developed.That storm dont happen very often.

[srainhoutx]

It is interesting to see that Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Norman and Shreveport are all mentioning the possibility of a wintry mix on Thursday. They all suggest that their temps may be too warm as well. And then the discussion begins to turn toward next weekend and another reinforcing shot of cold air and another Upper Air disturbance. Just another boring week ahead...

[SouthernMet]

Just another boring week ahead...

[Mr. Weather]

All the forecast I see shows it warming up here in Houston 60's almost 70 one one day