Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

ECMWF 2m temps are near 35F FTW/DFW at 18z Thu---not cold enough...

[northtxboy]

look guys I know that the models dont favor much if any winter precip at all and I am not a pro met or anything,,,But I feel like this could be one of those "SURPRISE"!!!!! events..I dont think its going to be so bad that it shuts everything down but this could make the roads dangerous for friday morning. All I am saying is that there is a good chance this could turn out to be what we are all hoping it will be. I give it a 70/30 for collin denton, grayson, fannin, lamar,,hunt,ect...And dont ask me were I see that in the models cause I dont this is just a gut feeling and I could be wrong but I dont think I am.



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

My gut is now leaning the other way, northtxboy. I just don't see the signs of the models blowing the forecast of the arrival of the sub-freezing air. There were hints of that possibly happening last week, but those hints have faded in the last day or two.

[northtxboy]

My gut is now leaning the other way, northtxboy. I just don't see the signs of the models blowing the forecast of the arrival of the sub-freezing air. There were hints of that possibly happening last week, but those hints have faded in the last day or two.

And you may be right,,,all I am saying is it could be one of those "SURPRISE" events,,,we have all seen them before here in north texas.

[wall_cloud]

My gut is now leaning the other way, northtxboy. I just don't see the signs of the models blowing the forecast of the arrival of the sub-freezing air. There were hints of that possibly happening last week, but those hints have faded in the last day or two.

And you may be right,,,all I am saying is it could be one of those "SURPRISE" events,,,we have all seen them before here in north texas.

I think you're -removed- northtxboy.

[northtxboy]

My gut is now leaning the other way, northtxboy. I just don't see the signs of the models blowing the forecast of the arrival of the sub-freezing air. There were hints of that possibly happening last week, but those hints have faded in the last day or two.

And you may be right,,,all I am saying is it could be one of those "SURPRISE" events,,,we have all seen them before here in north texas.

I think you're -removed- northtxboy.

yep I have heard that before in the s2k chatroom and then I got 8in of snow

[jasons2k]

I have lived in Texas since 1988 and that's the first time I ever saw a miss quite like that (or that much snow in the DFW area for that matter). That's once in 22 years.

Now, if I were a bettin' man.....just sayin'.....

[txagwxman]

12z NAM don't like it either...

[gpsnowman]

So it looks like we will strike out later this week. Oh well, it will get a little colder at least. Judging from some earlier posts late January into February looks like we might have more chances. Keep your fingers crossed gang.

[downsouthman1]

At this point, it's not even so much that the Models look bad, because that's given. It's also real-world parameters, like temperature profiles & the shortwave itself. It's not a closed low & it appears it won't become such but there appears to be something along those lines trying to develop of the coast of California again. I pretty much think we should forget about this weeks event & start looking to the future.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

Not an official forecast.

[somethingfunny]

Quote="northtxboy"]

My gut is now leaning the other way, northtxboy. I just don't see the signs of the models blowing the forecast of the arrival of the sub-freezing air. There were hints of that possibly happening last week, but those hints have faded in the last day or two.

And you may be right,,,all I am saying is it could be one of those "SURPRISE" events,,,we have all seen them before here in north texas.

I think you're -removed- northtxboy.

yep I have heard that before in the s2k chatroom and then I got 8in of snow /quote]

Haha yeah I'm guilty of that, you nailed the timing of the low last week. But I still think it was a lucky guess and you'll surely bust this time.

[Mattie]

Forecast for McKinney TX - for Thursday - 41 high - 24 low - Rain/Snow showers/Wind . . . 30%

[lester]

yep I have heard that before in the s2k chatroom and then I got 8in of snow

Broken clocks are correct once in a while..

[northtxboy]

yep I have heard that before in the s2k chatroom and then I got 8in of snow

Broken clocks are correct once in a while..

lol lester,,,u must be broke all the time eat ur hat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DFW Stormwatcher]

yep I have heard that before in the s2k chatroom and then I got 8in of snow

Broken clocks are correct once in a while..

lol lester,,,u must be broke all the time eat ur hat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Take note that WxMan 57 called that one, some of the other pro mets were on board as well. I don't see anyone seeing an ice storm happening this Thursday now, not a good sign for the wishes Northtxboy. Besides I'd much rather a snow storm than an ice storm, all I need right now is to have to lose all of the beautiful trees in my yard. Or at the very least have to clean up a bunch of branches.

[downsouthman1]

Take note that WxMan 57 called that one, some of the other pro mets were on board as well. I don't see anyone seeing an ice storm happening this Thursday now, not a good sign for the wishes Northtxboy. Besides I'd much rather a snow storm than an ice storm, all I need right now is to have to lose all of the beautiful trees in my yard. Or at the very least have to clean up a bunch of branches.

I concur. I am definitely not interested in any part of an ice storm.

[srainhoutx]

After our cool down on Thursday, all the guidance is beginning to suggest that the Sunday/Monday time frame may well be another heavy rain event as a much stronger Upper Air disturbance head SE from the Pacific NW into the Great Basin/Intermountain W. Some wintry weather may materialize to our N. We will see. We are in a very progressive pattern with an active NW flow and suggestions of Upper Air features to our W and SW with fronts expected every few days as we head to the end of January.

[downsouthman1]

After our cool down on Thursday, all the guidance is beginning to suggest that the Sunday/Monday time frame may well be another heavy rain event as a much stronger Upper Air disturbance head SE from the Pacific NW into the Great Basin/Intermountain W. Some wintry weather may materialize to our N. We will see. We are in a very progressive pattern with an active NW flow and suggestions of Upper Air features to our W and SW with fronts expected every few days as we head to the end of January.

What's crazy though is that this pattern doesn't seem to be one favoring a cutoff low, but Water Vapor loops look like one is trying to form off Baja California. I don't see where, if it develops, it'll have any room to make it into Texas, with the jet appearing to be taking a somewhat further southern path.

I've also noticed in the last few Water Vapor loop images, it's been showing what appears to be the beginning of a good moisture influx ahead of the Thursday system. It's gonna be hard for me to not see at least rain falling out of that system, even though NWS is only forecasting like 20-30 pops.

[Brandon8181]

Updated weather forecast for Grayson Co. Sherman TX from National weather service in FW as of 5 p.m.

50% chance of Rain/Sleet Thursday... hmm ?

[DonWrk]

Updated weather forecast for Grayson Co. Sherman TX from National weather service in FW as of 5 p.m.

50% chance of Rain/Sleet Thursday... hmm ?

Yeah, yesterday I saw they had a 40% chance of rain/sleet but it was only up for a few hours or so before they changed it.