Texas Winter 2010-2011

[northtxboy]

Updated weather forecast for Grayson Co. Sherman TX from National weather service in FW as of 5 p.m.

50% chance of Rain/Sleet Thursday... hmm ?

hmmmmmm

[iorange55]

Wouldn't get too excited about that. If it does sleet probably wouldn't stick on much anything and if it did it wouldn't last long.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, wouldn't expect much if it did. I'd put more money early next week. GFS is doing the usual fast progression. +PNA, and NAO is heading south so I would expect the next energy to dig further south and be more problematic than currently depicted.
ECMWF


UKMET

[northtxboy]

Wouldn't get too excited about that. If it does sleet probably wouldn't stick on much anything and if it did it wouldn't last long.

ya maybe for all u in the dfw guys but for us red river guys I think we might see something better than what most people are sayin.

[iorange55]

Wouldn't get too excited about that. If it does sleet probably wouldn't stick on much anything and if it did it wouldn't last long.

ya maybe for all u in the dfw guys but for us red river guys I think we might see something better than what most people are sayin.

Well hopefully! I'm certainly not against it.

[DentonGal]

Yeah, wouldn't expect much if it did. I'd put more money early next week. GFS is doing the usual fast progression. +PNA, and NAO is heading south so I would expect the next energy to dig further south and be more problematic than currently depicted.
ECMWF
http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/7959/1 ... slpus1.gif

UKMET
http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/1240/1 ... tna120.gif

Awww. There's our little ray of sunshine! Thanx Ntwx!!!

[orangeblood]

Yeah, wouldn't expect much if it did. I'd put more money early next week. GFS is doing the usual fast progression. +PNA, and NAO is heading south so I would expect the next energy to dig further south and be more problematic than currently depicted.
ECMWF
http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/7959/1 ... slpus1.gif

UKMET
http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/1240/1 ... tna120.gif

The big question next week, if this energy did come together and dig further south, will there be enough fresh cold air around ? I just don't see any big Canadian highs building over the next week to head down with this energy. Hopefully that will change.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wouldn't get too excited about that. If it does sleet probably wouldn't stick on much anything and if it did it wouldn't last long.

ya maybe for all u in the dfw guys but for us red river guys I think we might see something better than what most people are sayin.

lol dont get your hopes too high, i suppose anything is possible but the odds dont look to be in your favor. Im usually on the optimistic side with winter weather, but i just cant see it this time around

[DonWrk]

NWS predicting 4 inches of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice in central and northern Oklahoma. Wouldn't doubt it if we saw something fall, just be hard to stick.

[Brandon8181]

Updated weather forecast for Grayson Co. Sherman TX from National weather service in FW as of 5 p.m.

50% chance of Rain/Sleet Thursday... hmm ?

hmmmmmm

northtxboy we were right, the last snow storm as far as areas and accumulations...think we will be right again

hmmmm

As of 10 p.m. forecast is still the same up here at Grayson 50% chance of rain, then afternoon a chance for rain with sleet"

[Ntxw]

There are still no models showing any accumulative snow/sleet/ice for north Texas (barely even in the panhandle for that matter). I am with orangeblood on this one being a non event for us until you were well north of the Red River. This is one of those storms that are a classic once cold enough, precip has already passed. I hope I am wrong, and if anyone does see anything, of course pictures!

I am calling light drizzle/light rain for areas from central Texas up to the Red River, with the red river counties experiencing a brief period of sleet possibly.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[northtxboy]

Updated weather forecast for Grayson Co. Sherman TX from National weather service in FW as of 5 p.m.

50% chance of Rain/Sleet Thursday... hmm ?

hmmmmmm

northtxboy we were right, the last snow storm as far as areas and accumulations...think we will be right again

hmmmm

As of 10 p.m. forecast is still the same up here at Grayson 50% chance of rain, then afternoon a chance for rain with sleet"

I think that 50% will change to 60 or 70 by tommrow,,,on channel 10 they said we would be at or below freezing by noon or so thursday in sherman but I think it could be alittle bit sonner than that.

[Brandon8181]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Don't give up on winter weather this Thursday night and Friday morning!

My new thoughts are as follows:

Wed, generally a mild day with comfortable temperatures.

Thursday temperatures falling to 31 degrees by 3 p.m. I think the event will start as rain and change over to sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. and then eventually light snow. Temperatures will fall to 28 degrees by midnight as snow starts to decrease across the area and shift to the east.

Friday morning will start out near 25 degrees with a slight chance for light snow.

Saturday will be a clearing day with a slight chance of a few snow flurries early.

With this particular event I feel like extreme north Texas will get 1-3 inches accumulation with a FEW isolated areas getting 3 inches or more.

In this forecast I'm refering to Grayson County and surrounding counties.

I would also like to mention the 18Z GFS has Sherman's temperature near 28 degrees on Thu. 18z with moderate precipiation over the area.

Anyone ready to jump on my wagon with this yet???

[northtxboy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Don't give up on winter weather this Thursday night and Friday morning!

My new thoughts are as follows:

Wed, generally a mild day with comfortable temperatures.

Thursday temperatures falling to 31 degrees by 3 p.m. I think the event will start as rain and change over to sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. and then eventually light snow. Temperatures will fall to 28 degrees by midnight as snow starts to decrease across the area and shift to the east.

Friday morning will start out near 25 degrees with a slight chance for light snow.

Saturday will be a clearing day with a slight chance of a few snow flurries early.

With this particular event I feel like extreme north Texas will get 1-3 inches accumulation with a FEW isolated areas getting 3 inches or more.

In this forecast I'm refering to Grayson County and surrounding counties.

I would also like to mention the 18Z GFS has Sherman's temperature near 28 degrees on Thu. 18z with moderate precipiation over the area.

Anyone ready to jump on my wagon with this yet???

I am with you the whole way man!!!!!!!

[Ntxw]

I would also like to mention the 18Z GFS has Sherman's temperature near 28 degrees on Thu. 18z with moderate precipiation over the area.

Where are you seeing this? I did a sounding for hour 48 (only hour I see on 18z that shows anything falling at or below freezing) and there is a warm nose at 850c, which would indicate sleet, which ends at the next frame.

[Brandon8181]

OH! And Portastorm..
I am so not bullish

[Brandon8181]

I would also like to mention the 18Z GFS has Sherman's temperature near 28 degrees on Thu. 18z with moderate precipiation over the area.

Where are you seeing this? I did a sounding for hour 48 (only hour I see on 18z that shows anything falling at or below freezing) and there is a warm nose at 850c, which would indicate sleet, which ends at the next frame.

18z run for today at wxweb.meteostar.com

[Ntxw]

It still shows what the soundings I did earlier had. Look at the the 850 temp is above freezing and only 0.01 of liquid which indicates brief sleet or freezing rain since surface temperature is below freezing if it hasn't already ended.

[iorange55]

I'd be willing to bet a lot you won't get 3 inches of snow. Probably won't even be enough moisture to get 3 inches of snow even if it was cold enough, which it more than likely won't be.

[orangeblood]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Don't give up on winter weather this Thursday night and Friday morning!

My new thoughts are as follows:

Wed, generally a mild day with comfortable temperatures.

Thursday temperatures falling to 31 degrees by 3 p.m. I think the event will start as rain and change over to sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. and then eventually light snow. Temperatures will fall to 28 degrees by midnight as snow starts to decrease across the area and shift to the east

Friday morning will start out near 25 degrees with a slight chance for light snow.

Saturday will be a clearing day with a slight chance of a few snow flurries early.

With this particular event I feel like extreme north Texas will get 1-3 inches accumulation with a FEW isolated areas getting 3 inches or more.

In this forecast I'm refering to Grayson County and surrounding counties.


I would also like to mention the 18Z GFS has Sherman's temperature near 28 degrees on Thu. 18z with moderate precipiation over the area.

Anyone ready to jump on my wagon with this yet???

Wow, that's a heck of a forecast without one model even coming close to backing you up. I like the bold forecast though.

Sherman just looks to be too far south and west with this system.

Hey Ntxw, checked out the 0Z GFS run yet ? The trend is our friend for early next week.