Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

iorange55, orangeblood, GFS doesn't know what to do with next week's storm. Digs it quite deep/strengthens then goes in low res and fades lol. I'm anxious to see what Canadian/Euro says. This +PNA is on fire!

[Brandon8181]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Don't give up on winter weather this Thursday night and Friday morning!

My new thoughts are as follows:

Wed, generally a mild day with comfortable temperatures.

Thursday temperatures falling to 31 degrees by 3 p.m. I think the event will start as rain and change over to sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. and then eventually light snow. Temperatures will fall to 28 degrees by midnight as snow starts to decrease across the area and shift to the east

Friday morning will start out near 25 degrees with a slight chance for light snow.

Saturday will be a clearing day with a slight chance of a few snow flurries early.

With this particular event I feel like extreme north Texas will get 1-3 inches accumulation with a FEW isolated areas getting 3 inches or more.

In this forecast I'm refering to Grayson County and surrounding counties.


I would also like to mention the 18Z GFS has Sherman's temperature near 28 degrees on Thu. 18z with moderate precipiation over the area.

Anyone ready to jump on my wagon with this yet???

Wow, that's a heck of a forecast without one model even coming close to backing you up. I like the bold forecast though.

Sherman just looks to be too far south and west with this system.

Hey Ntxw, checked out the 0Z GFS run yet ? The trend is our friend for early next week.

Well, now you know part of that is my wish-cast, but at the end of the day, I do feel like North Texas will get some winter precip, if nothing else

[orangeblood]

iorange55, orangeblood, GFS doesn't know what to do with next week's storm. Digs it quite deep/strengthens then goes in low res and fades lol. I'm anxious to see what Canadian/Euro says. This +PNA is on fire!

Regarding the +PNA, that is one heck of a west coast ridge towards the end of the month into February on this run.

[Ntxw]

Regarding the +PNA, that is one heck of a west coast ridge towards the end of the month into February on this run.

The European ensembles have insisted the +PNA is the dominant driver for a long time to come. Looks like the GFS sets are coming in line with it also. JB's worst nightmare has come true for his warmer second half of winter at least for the south-central U.S. Perfect timing too, couldn't ask for it at a better time then moving into FEB . Who would've thought the winter killer for us would become our savior as the NAO, AO has become less negative, at the same time the PNA is overwhelming them.

[DonWrk]

Wow Brandon, bold forecast. I'm pulling for it though!

[Ntxw]

Hard to tell between 108 and 120 on Canadian but I love how it looks. If that doesn't spell snowstorm next Monday, I don't know what does! As orangeblood has mentioned, trend is our friend!

Long term Canadian = Also monster ridge in NE Pacific. Train of storms a comin. 540 thickness has parked itself over the southern plains.

[Ntxw]

UKMET + European = Snow in Northern Texas Sunday-Tues. Great trend tonight. +PNA is king. I will be shocked if Texas (especially west/north) doesn't see at least a significant winter storm the next 2 weeks. Heck I'd be shocked if we don't see one next week! Not only us but this storm might end up being quite a doozy for the southern/eastern half of the nation.

If the trends play out as is, early next week's storm might only be the tip of the iceberg.

GFS ensembles support (more members than not) snow Sunday/Monday.

[iorange55]

Well thats it I'm on the snow bandwagon for next week. Better turn out better than the last snow storm.

[DonWrk]

WWA's posted for some counties just north of the red river. Still saying little or no precip expected. Also saw they lowered the temps a little more especially for the low.

[Portastorm]

All hail King Euro!

---------------------------
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
359 AM EST WED JAN 19 2011

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 23 2011 - 12Z WED JAN 26 2011


USED THE 00Z/19 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DAY 4 FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...WITH THE
UKMET BEGINNING TO SLOW ITS WAVE IN THE SAME REGION. THE FLOW
UPSTREAM BECOMES QUITE CONVOLUTED THEREAFTER...WITH STRONG
BLOCKING TENDING TO KEEP INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS DUMBELLING
AROUND ONE ANOTHER.


CISCO

[Ntxw]

6z GFS is getting even closer! Not quite cold enough yet but that's hella close. Perfect trend . I'm guessing 12z later this morning might give way to a lot of buzz .

All of the models are depicting monster ridges out west. Very juicy *drools*

[DentonGal]

Greg Fields on WFAA Dallas just showed freezing rain clipping Denton tomorrow morning into early afternoon. What the heck is up with that???? I thought the Fat Lady had sung in this one!

[Ntxw]

Greg Fields on WFAA Dallas just showed freezing rain clipping Denton tomorrow morning into early afternoon. What the heck is up with that???? I thought the Fat Lady had sung in this one!

There's always the possibility if the cold air beats the precip to us. But even if it does, everything is expected to be light and mainly a problem for the Red River counties if there is any glazing involved. Doesn't appear like much at this time!

I'm going out on a limb this morning and say snow is coming early next week for NTX/Southern Oklahoma. Stay tuned!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[DentonGal]

Greg Fields on WFAA Dallas just showed freezing rain clipping Denton tomorrow morning into early afternoon. What the heck is up with that???? I thought the Fat Lady had sung in this one!

There's always the possibility if the cold air beats the precip to us. But even if it does, everything is expected to be light and mainly a problem for the Red River counties if there is any glazing involved. Doesn't appear like much at this time!

I'm going out on a limb this morning and say snow is coming early next week for NTX/Southern Oklahoma. Stay tuned!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Thanx Ntwx! And a BIG thanx for going out on a limb! Now, if this next system will just cooperate!

[Kelarie]

Well Texarkana went from nada to 60% chance of sleet/snow Thursday afternoon.

A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TODAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
TRANSLATE E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THURSDAY. THE ATTENDANT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP SE FROM SE OK/N TX BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG/JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...WITH THE BEST
ISENTROPIC/SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED FARTHER N ACROSS EXTREME SE OK/SW
AR CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUS...LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THESE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING A TAD
FARTHER S INTO EXTREME N LA BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. FORECAST
SOUNDING/PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE RAIN MAY TRANSITION
OVER TO A WINTRY SLEET/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE
TX/SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR AS THE MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THUS HAVE INSERTED MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL SHIFT E AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY
EARLY/MID EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS SE BEHIND THE
FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IF/WHEN THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. POST FRONTAL
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BLANKET DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW FREEZING.

[HockeyTx82]

[DonWrk]

How do the models get the information they need to portray certain events from days away?

[wxman57]

How do the models get the information they need to portray certain events from days away?

Data on current conditions (winds, pressure, moisture, etc.) at all levels of the atmosphere are fed into the models (called initialization). The models then use a series of very complex mathematical equations that attempt to extrapolate forward from the current conditions. Each model uses a slightly different set of equations. That's why they don't always match up as far as their forecasts.''

Lack of data can be a big problem in the longer range. For example, there aren't too many observations west of the U.S. across the Pacific, where many of our storm systems originate. Without good initialization data, the models have a hard time predicting the future.

[orangeblood]

Well Texarkana went from nada to 60% chance of sleet/snow Thursday afternoon.

A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TODAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
TRANSLATE E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THURSDAY. THE ATTENDANT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP SE FROM SE OK/N TX BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG/JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...WITH THE BEST
ISENTROPIC/SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED FARTHER N ACROSS EXTREME SE OK/SW
AR CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUS...LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THESE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING A TAD
FARTHER S INTO EXTREME N LA BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. FORECAST
SOUNDING/PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE RAIN MAY TRANSITION
OVER TO A WINTRY SLEET/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE
TX/SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR AS THE MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THUS HAVE INSERTED MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL SHIFT E AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY
EARLY/MID EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS SE BEHIND THE
FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IF/WHEN THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. POST FRONTAL
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BLANKET DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW FREEZING.

I noticed yesterday that extreme Northeast Texas could get a decent amount of winter precip out of this storm. Not sure if the cold air will catch up in time but it appears the moisture and lift will be there. I'd say from Paris to Texarkana and points north and east will have the best shot of seeing a moderate sleet/freezing rain shower.

[wxman57]

It still shows what the soundings I did earlier had. Look at the the 850 temp is above freezing and only 0.01 of liquid which indicates brief sleet or freezing rain since surface temperature is below freezing if it hasn't already ended.

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/4290/sherman.png

Just note that the graphic above does not necessarily show precip when the temperature is at 29 deg. tomorrow. That .01" precip occurs between 45hrs and 48hrs. At 45hrs, it forecasts 34 degrees. Most likely, that .01" precip falls when the temperature is above freezing - closer to the 45hr point in that forecast. See my tutorial on interpreting precip in model data.

That said, new data do suggest a possible narrow window around noon tomorrow when there may be a thin layer of sub-freezing air aloft over the Dallas area just before the precip ends. That could result in a few sleet pellets falling as the precip ends.

Here's a meteogram I made from the 6Z GFS for DFW. It shows a tiny bit of precip between 9am and noon tomorrow with the temperature in the low to mid 30s at the surface. Next week's "event" is indicated to be cold rain.