Texas Winter 2010-2011

[perk]

That's the same map, and pretty much the same thing he said yesterday. Nothing we don't already know. Wait and see.

I think that's the reason srainhoutx posted the link to the video, nothing appears to have changed that much from yesterday. The possibility still exist for wintry weather in our area.

[wxman57]

I checked this morning and Accuweather has rain/snow forecasted for the Beaumont, TX area on the 4th. I know it will likley change later today, but all in all intresting that these sites are now starting to forecast snow/rain for areas of SETX. Lastnight, they had ice for our area. Hmmm....

If that forecast is from their free site, then what you're getting is unedited raw model guidance. It's not seen or edited by a meteorologist. As such, you can expect significant differences from model run to model run.

[wxman57]

That's the same map, and pretty much the same thing he said yesterday. Nothing we don't already know. Wait and see.

Yep, nothing has changed. Just a possibility of cold and winter precip down south. We won't know much more until the weekend.

[txagwxman]

12z GFS borderline for DFW...850 mb near 0F, 540-542 thickness, 925mb temps 33F Tuesday.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) is colder as well and does suggest an Upper Air disturbance heading into that colder air...

[txagwxman]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) is colder as well and does suggest an Upper Air disturbance heading into that colder air...


http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... MCf180.gif

That would do the trick.

[orangeblood]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) is colder as well and does suggest an Upper Air disturbance heading into that colder air...


http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... MCf180.gif

Just 12 hours ago that same model had a cut-off low over northern Mexico and now it's in the central plains on this run. Like the NWS HPC mentioned, way too much model spread to have any clue about next week. The only thing I'm getting very confident about is that the cold air is coming. Now regarding precip, I don't think we'll know a thing until at least Friday.

[somethingfunny]

Here in Weatherford we are getting more precip reaching the ground now than the models were forecasting last night. Unfortunately it is just rain. 35°. There is a warm layer somewhere.

Same here in Richardson. Very light sprinkles, 40°

I woke up and put on jeans and a sweater since it was just mildly chilly at 7am and I figured we'd get into the 40s and 50s quickly. Instead once those clouds moved in....MAN....I was freezing on my way to my next class at 9:30! Then at 11:00 we had sprcold sprinkles....seems like we had more evaporative cooling and moisture than expected! I was hoping to see some flurries but no luck. now it's sunny and warming up with just high clouds to the northwest....but down southeast of here, dare I say it....those sure look like snow clouds moving southeast from me in Mesquite!

[Portastorm]

12z Euro still on board.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Ntxw]

Ah another day another set of outcomes with the same constant variables! Though euro is same pattern, it's backed off on the cold a bit and storm to the north while the GFS is trending colder and wetter LOL. As the soap progresses...

[srainhoutx]

HPC not buying the Euro/Canadian solution...for now...Final Update...

12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR THE SPECIFIC
DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS BEYOND WHAT WAS CONSIDERED THIS MORNING. BY DAY
4...TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE AS MUCH AS 12
HRS...WITH THE NEW ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE
UKMET/CANADIAN ONLY WIDEN THE SOLUTION SPREAD. THUS...CONTINUITY
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH THESE 2 SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES OVER THE
CONUS THEN DIMINISH DAYS 5/6...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...
THIS IS NOT THE CASE OVER THE PACIFIC...WHERE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS EXIST. THEN BY DAY 7...THE
NEW ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING OF
INDIVIDUAL STREAMS OVER THE CENTRAL CONSES...WHICH RESULTS IN A
SIGNIFICANT LOW EXITING THE PLAINS...THAT IF TRUE...WOULD RESULT
IN A CONSIDERABLE WARMING/MOISTENING TREND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. BUT WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEAN NOT PHASED AND THUS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ALONG WITH TELECONNECTIONS WHICH FAVORS THEM...THE
CHOICE REMAINS TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE
MOMENT.



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[txagwxman]

12z Euro still on board.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

NO SNOW THOUGH.

[Portastorm]

12z Euro still on board.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

NO SNOW THOUGH.

Well, my point is that the pattern depiction is still the same. As I'm sure you know, it is generally understood now that the details remain to be worked out and we're still too far away.

When you say "no snow though" ... do you mean for the entire state? It would be great if you could elaborate more. Thanks.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW NWS AFD from this morning

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ONE PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPEN NEAR
BAJA ON THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE HOW FAST THIS THIS
TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WHEN THE ENERGY DOES ARRIVE. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WHICH
IS A BLEND OF GFS AND THE ECMWF.

THERE IS STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH IS BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS TRENDING WITH A WARMER SOLUTION
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS SOME SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WHEN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. AS WITH ANY
MODEL SOLUTION BEYOND ABOUT 5 DAYS...EXPECT A VAST ARRAY OF
SCENARIOS IN FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS PROGGED SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS

.

[txagwxman]

12z Euro still on board.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

NO SNOW THOUGH.

Well, my point is that the pattern depiction is still the same. As I'm sure you know, it is generally understood now that the details remain to be worked out and we're still too far away.

When you say "no snow though" ... do you mean for the entire state? It would be great if you could elaborate more. Thanks.

ECMWF progressive with the short-wave and all the dynamics (d (vort)/dz) is over the south and not Texas. So in effect, just an arctic front.

But still 6-7 days away...

[Ntxw]

Too progressive Txagwxman. HPC has mentioned the existence of a southeast ridge coming. Though probably one in transition, should probably put this into consideration.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE MEANS INVOLVES THE ORIENTATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 7...WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER THAN THE
GEFS/NAEFS. WOULD NORMALLY PLACE GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN IN SUCH A CASE DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION AND
GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS CONSTITUTING ITS MEAN.
HOWEVER...TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
NEAR HUDSON BAY SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEFS/NAEFS.
THUS...REDUCED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTRIBUTION TO ABOUT 50
PERCENT. ALSO MANUALLY INCORPORATED DETERMINISTIC DETAIL IN THE
PROGS WHERE CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS EXISTED. HOWEVER...THIS WAS
MINIMAL...WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

[orangeblood]

Ah another day another set of outcomes with the same constant variables! Though euro is same pattern, it's backed off on the cold a bit and storm to the north while the GFS is trending colder and wetter LOL. As the soap progresses...

Not a good trend on the Euro (starting to come more in line with the Canadian), system looks way too progressive and the eastern trough rules once again - meaning dry, cold northwest flow for the southern plains.

At least on this run, The cause of the progressive nature of this trough appears to be the southern stream showing up and preventing the northern stream energy from digging into the southwest. No bueno!!

[gboudx]

I see jeff logged on from time-to-time, but I'll go ahead and post a snippet from his most recent email update. It only pertains to next week.

Early Next Week:

Split flow pattern develops across the US with some potential for phasing of the southern and northern streams over the southern US. Ridge will amplify along the US west coast toward Alaska resulting in the northern stream (polar jet) buckling and sending a cold arctic air mass (currently -30 to -40 over NW and N Canada) southward into the plains late this weekend or early next week. SW US southern stream energy appears to reload after the Saturday/Sunday system with another short wave digging into the SW. Main question is how much cold air comes this far south and what kind of energy will come out of the US SW into that cold air mass. Every model has a different suggestion as to how this will play out and none of them have had much run to run consistency. Rule of thumb is that models tend not to handle the shallow arctic air masses well (they tend to be too warm and too slow with such air masses) however the models have not done a great job forecasting the cold outbreaks this winter and have tended to be too cold. With all that said, the source region in Canada of this potential cold air intrusion is plenty cold (colder than in mid Jan) which does give reason to pause, but there is little indication of a large arctic high pressure cell moving down the lee of the Rockies as one in TX would like to see for a strong cold air push. Will not side with any of the solutions or any model as none seems to handle the upcoming split flow pattern better than another. Will go with experience on shallow southern plains cold air intrusions with the arctic boundary making decent headway into an otherwise unfavorable upper level flow pattern. Not sure how far south the boundary will make it by Monday but it could be in the panhandle or nearing Austin. Significant temperature falls are likely behind the front. Front should at least make the coast by early Tuesday and bring cold air to the entire region (could be sooner). As far as precipitation goes, there does appear to be energy left over in the SW US that will move across TX at some point. Questions then abound over moisture availability, air column temperatures, and surface freezing line in some attempt to determine what if any P-type issues will be possible. For now will keep everything a cold rain over SE TX and the coastal bend given the tremendous amounts of uncertainty. Did I mention how uncertain the forecast is for early next week…beyond Sunday is just about pointless at this point.

[wall_cloud]

The snow was a no show in San Angelo last night. I woke up to beautiful clear skies and dry ...........

This my friends is unfortunately what happens when snow is forecast in my area.

Fingers and toes will now be crossed for next week.

keep in mind that the forecast for San Angelo was a 20% of light snow. That's not a sure thing by any means.

[natlib]

The snow was a no show in San Angelo last night. I woke up to beautiful clear skies and dry ...........

This my friends is unfortunately what happens when snow is forecast in my area.

Fingers and toes will now be crossed for next week.

keep in mind that the forecast for San Angelo was a 20% of light snow. That's not a sure thing by any means.

I understand that wall_cloud. Never said it was a sure thing. Just pointing out its very hard to get any of the white stuff in our little corner of the world.......