Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Turtle]

My forecast is much more conservative. This is Shreveport's 7 day forecast.

[Metalicwx220]

Our temps went from 51 Next wednesday to 72. Bust 4 my area, but trends are better 4 yall. I see it as if houston gets snow, we get snow.

[Stormcenter]

It's going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out.
It sounds like most of the NWS and local Mets are going along with the GFS
for next week's weather. IMO

[Turtle]

From San Angelo NWS.

[Metalicwx220]

[downsouthman1]

From San Angelo NWS.

That image is from 2:27AM today. Let's see what they're afternoon update looks like.

[Tireman4]

Where is Wall Cloud?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I remember growing up and there always being snowstorms out in west texas. We were caught in a few of these when driving to PHX for Xmas, what happened to those days?

[txagwxman]

DFW NWS put this out. I don't know how long the web page will be around, so get it while you can.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=4

An arctic air mass will head south into the region next week with
temperatures turning sharply colder Monday night and Tuesday.
Meanwhile an upper level low will move in from the Pacific and
approach the region from the west. Precipitation is expected to
develop ahead of the upper low across Texas and Oklahoma Monday
Night and Tuesday. The atmosphere should be cold enough for a mix
of rain, sleet, or freezing rain on Tuesday for most of North Texas.
Snow will be possible, especially for locations across northwest
Texas and Oklahoma. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the
strength and timing of the upper level low. A faster movement
would mean less wintry precipitation for North Texas, while a slower
movement would bring more. Keep checking back for updates on this
developing winter weather situation.

Let's see what WFAA CH8 does, knowing them they will add it into the forecast but say the ground temps wont support it sticking because it was in the 60's for 2 days.

Well Pete needs to hurry thru it so he can joke around with Hansen.

Everything will freeze and stick with air mass.

[southerngale]

Where is Wall Cloud?

Maybe sleeping. He was on late last night, so he may have had the night shift.

[Ntxw]

Long AFD from FW today.

BY SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA...ONCE AGAIN OPENING UP THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS. A PIECE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX
IN NE CANADA WILL BREAK OFF AND ENTER THE NORTHERN US BY
MONDAY...SENDING A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR A VERY COLD
AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS CURRENTLY THE WARMEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT DO
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO ITS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS
FAR OUT...MODELS TEND TO HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SHALLOW DEPTH
OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES AND ONE NEEDS TO PAY CLOSER ATTENTION TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AND BASE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM
PAST EXPERIENCES. CURRENT 850 TEMPS IN THE SOURCE REGION ARE IN
THE NEGATIVE 24C RANGE AND ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE 850 TEMPS
IN SOUTHERN CANADA NEAR -20C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST ARCTIC
AIRMASS ARE ACTUALLY COLDER WHEN WE SAW PROLONGED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE TOO SLOW AND TOO WARM WITH THE AIRMASS AND WILL STICK CLOSER
TO THE COLDER CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED
BY ALL MODELS TO ENTER TEXAS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND WHAT IF ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. THERE
ARE BASICALLY TWO DIFFERENT CAMPS IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW THIS
MAY PLAY OUT. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE TROUGH AND PROG A TUESDAY ARRIVAL. THIS ALLOWS AMPLE TIME
FOR THE COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE LIFT ARRIVES AND BOTH
SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS. THE CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET PROG A MUCH STRONGER
PIECE OF THE POLAR LOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...OUR PACIFIC PIECE OF ENERGY
WOULD QUICKLY BE SWEPT UP AROUND THE BIGGER SYSTEM AND ALL THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WOULD BE GONE BEFORE THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES. THE PRECIP WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIQUID...ENDING BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATTER
GROUP OF MODELS IS NOT USUALLY THE PREFERRED SET WHEN WE MAKE A
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EVEN
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AND HOW SIMILAR THIS GROUP IS...SOME WEIGHT
DEFINITELY IS GIVEN TO THIS DATA SET.

FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST
THE POSSIBILITIES OF WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...VERY
COLD AIR SEEMS LIKELY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS...WILL
WE SEE PRECIP AFTER THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IF FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WERE TO FALL...WE FEEL THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
AND THAT THE SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE AN OPEN ENDED TROUGH...SNOW
WILL NOT BE LIKELY INITIALLY. IF PRECIP WERE TO LINGER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...WE COULD SEE A FINAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE
EVERYTHING SHUTS OFF.

[CaptinCrunch]

1 OF 2 THIGS WILL HAPPEN HERE...

1. System blows up most local forecast and NTX gets hammered with a BIG ice/snow event, or

2. System blows up altoghter and it's just a cold week with a few isolated flurries here and there.


Vote Now: 1 or 2 operaters are standing by....lol

[iorange55]

18z looks to be the same GFS hanging up the cold. Oklahoma gets pounded.

[Ntxw]

1 OF 2 THIGS WILL HAPPEN HERE...

1. System blows up most local forecast and NTX gets hammered with a BIG ice/snow event, or

2. System blows up altoghter and it's just a cold week with a few isolated flurries here and there.


Vote Now: 1 or 2 operaters are standing by....lol

18z GFS votes 2 still yet. It's been pretty stubborn that the baroclinic zone will set up over the panhandle and Oklahoma. It wants to hold energy up way back which slows the progression of cold air.

[iorange55]

I just have a really hard time believing the movement of the cold air hardly moves from 114hr all the way to 150hr

[orangeblood]

1 OF 2 THIGS WILL HAPPEN HERE...

1. System blows up most local forecast and NTX gets hammered with a BIG ice/snow event, or

2. System blows up altoghter and it's just a cold week with a few isolated flurries here and there.


Vote Now: 1 or 2 operaters are standing by....lol

18z GFS votes 2 still yet. It's been pretty stubborn that the baroclinic zone will set up over the panhandle and Oklahoma. It wants to hold energy up way back which slows the progression of cold air.

and I suspect that's going to happen until we get much closer to the event (around Sunday)

Don't even bother looking at the today's JMA run, completely went bonkers.

The most important feature to pay attention to is how quickly the trough is progressing across the southwest US. Beginning tonight, watch where the other models start trending: is it towards the European solution (slower/deeper) or the Canadian (faster/shallower) - I'm personally not paying any attention to where the frontal position is.

[Tireman4]

and I suspect that's going to happen until we get much closer to the event (around Sunday)

Don't even bother looking at the today's JMA run, completely went bonkers.[/quote]

I agree Sunday. That is the day....

[iorange55]

18z GFS doesn't have the magic line really passing Dallas at all.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS doesn't have the magic line really passing Dallas at all.

It does, just not 850. Surface temps are colder, shallow air. Not saying I agree with that but just pointing out Look at 10m temps.

[ndale]

Wording from Austin nws shows they are not ready to predict wintry precipitation yet:

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE RAINS WILL END TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOW AS ECMWF SUGGESTS...THEN WINTER TYPE
PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.