SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
http://www.police.qld.gov.au/forms/qldfloods/default.html
Portal to the Queensland Police storm surge maps.
Portal to the Queensland Police storm surge maps.
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
[Good thing is much of there area inland is remote, yet the population that is there will really be effected by this. ]
Unfortunately it seems to be pretty much headed for the Mt Isa, a mining city of over 24,000 people. But the real problem is that if the rain band gets far enough south then it feeds the Murray Darling System. The Darling has tributaries which extend into central southern Queensland. Sections of this system are already in flood. It flows down to much more populous areas in southern parts of Australia. We have already had the wettest summer in historical record in much of eastern Australia.
The other problem is that the tributary system for the coastal rivers, on which most of Queenslands coastal towns lie, extends a fair way inland , too, and looks as if it is going to receive some real rain, too. These towns are just starting to recover from major floods over the last few weeks. The catchment areas are sodden, the dams are full to overflowing, etc etc. Rockhampton in particular has been in huge strife.
Unfortunately it seems to be pretty much headed for the Mt Isa, a mining city of over 24,000 people. But the real problem is that if the rain band gets far enough south then it feeds the Murray Darling System. The Darling has tributaries which extend into central southern Queensland. Sections of this system are already in flood. It flows down to much more populous areas in southern parts of Australia. We have already had the wettest summer in historical record in much of eastern Australia.
The other problem is that the tributary system for the coastal rivers, on which most of Queenslands coastal towns lie, extends a fair way inland , too, and looks as if it is going to receive some real rain, too. These towns are just starting to recover from major floods over the last few weeks. The catchment areas are sodden, the dams are full to overflowing, etc etc. Rockhampton in particular has been in huge strife.
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
radar update from Wallis is late. Last one was :40 after the hour.
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
Yasi has a predicted central pressure now and around landfall of 924hPa
Local radio has the Cairns mayor saying that some of the evacuation centres are not cyclone rated. There is apparently resistence to evacuation from some people even on the seafront in the target area.
I fear that this storm is going to kill quite a few people.
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 01/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 151.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [29 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 115 knots [215 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 160 knots [295 km/h]
Central Pressure: 924 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 280 nm [520 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0600: 16.8S 148.1E: 050 [095]: 115 [215]: 924
+24: 02/1800: 17.9S 144.7E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 976
+36: 03/0600: 19.3S 141.6E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 03/1800: 20.3S 139.1E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 04/0600: 21.6S 136.8E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 04/1800: 21.5S 134.7E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1000
REMARKS:
Yasi has developed over the last 12 hours. DT based on eye pattern with white
surround with an off white eye average over 3 hours.
Forecast to remain at this intensity until landfall in a low shear and
favourable environment.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Local radio has the Cairns mayor saying that some of the evacuation centres are not cyclone rated. There is apparently resistence to evacuation from some people even on the seafront in the target area.
I fear that this storm is going to kill quite a few people.
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
Current combined radar / sat image from the BOM
Composite image from Bowen Radar:
As you can see the eye is approaching Willis Island weather station at present.
Composite image from Bowen Radar:
As you can see the eye is approaching Willis Island weather station at present.
Last edited by Rod Hagen on Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
Thanks Hurakan! I hope the radar stay up for the entire passage! Amazing to see one go right over out at sea.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:54am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville to
Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Richmond.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal
and north of Winton.
At 7:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be
555 kilometres east of Cairns and 560 kilometres northeast of Townsville
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.
THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.
TC Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction
during the day. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast in the Innisfail area
at about midnight.
Coastal residents within the warning area, and particularly between Cairns and
Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE
[i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland.
The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY
above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and
FLOODING of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding
evacuation of the area if advised to do so by authorities.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr that are currently developing on coastal
islands, are forecast to develop about the coast by late morning and about the
tropical interior overnight.
Between Cape Tribulation and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with
gusts in excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and early evening and VERY
DESTRUCTIVE with gusts up to 300 km/hr between Cairns and Ingham during the
evening as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE
winds can also occur on the seaward side of hills to the north of the cyclone
and are also forecast to reach the Atherton Tablelands.
Winds are forecast to ease about the east coast during Thursday morning as the
cyclone moves inland.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.
People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and
Richmond should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
People about the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal and north of
Winton should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 7:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 150.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 922 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Wednesday 02 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting 1300 659 212 end_of_the_skype_highlighting. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:54am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville to
Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Richmond.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal
and north of Winton.
At 7:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be
555 kilometres east of Cairns and 560 kilometres northeast of Townsville
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.
THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.
TC Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction
during the day. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast in the Innisfail area
at about midnight.
Coastal residents within the warning area, and particularly between Cairns and
Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE
[i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland.
The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY
above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and
FLOODING of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding
evacuation of the area if advised to do so by authorities.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr that are currently developing on coastal
islands, are forecast to develop about the coast by late morning and about the
tropical interior overnight.
Between Cape Tribulation and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with
gusts in excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and early evening and VERY
DESTRUCTIVE with gusts up to 300 km/hr between Cairns and Ingham during the
evening as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE
winds can also occur on the seaward side of hills to the north of the cyclone
and are also forecast to reach the Atherton Tablelands.
Winds are forecast to ease about the east coast during Thursday morning as the
cyclone moves inland.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.
People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and
Richmond should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
People about the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal and north of
Winton should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 7:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 150.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 922 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Wednesday 02 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting 1300 659 212 end_of_the_skype_highlighting. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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